Blind Man’s Bluff

by digby

Bush and Rumsfeld take questions from the press:

Q Sir, after you’ve studied today the military capabilities of the United States and looking ahead to future threats, one thing that has to factor in is the growing number of U.S. allies, Russia, Germany, Bahrain, now Canada, who say that if you go to war with Iran, you’re going to go alone. Does the American military have the capability to prosecute this war alone?

THE PRESIDENT: Well, look, if you’re asking — are you asking about Iran? The subject didn’t come up in this meeting. But, having said that, we take all threats seriously and we will continue to consult with our friends and allies. I know there is this kind of intense speculation that seems to be going on, a kind of a — I don’t know how you would describe it. It’s kind of a churning —

SECRETARY RUMSFELD: Frenzy.

THE PRESIDENT: Frenzy is how the Secretary would describe it. But the subject didn’t come up. We will obviously continue to consult with our friends and allies. Your question makes certain assumptions that may or may not be true. But we will continue to talk with our — with the people concerned about peace and how to secure the peace, and those are needed consultations. Not only will we consult with friends and allies, we’ll consult with members of Congress. Yes, Terry.

[…]

Q He has said that he is drawing up war plans to provide you with credible options. Now, should the American people conclude from that that you’re reaching some critical point, that a decision is imminent?

THE PRESIDENT: … one of the jobs that the Secretary of Defense has tasked to members of his general staff is to prepare for all contingencies, whether it be in the particular country that you seem to be riveted on, or any other country, for that matter. We face a — the world is not stable. The world changes. There are — this terrorist network is global in nature and they may strike anywhere. And, therefore, we’ve got to be prepared to use our military and all the other assets at our disposal in a way to keep the peace.

Would you like to comment on that?

SECRETARY RUMSFELD: I would. As the President indicated, one of the things we discussed here today was the contingency planning guidance that he signed. I then meet with all of the combatant commanders for every area of responsibility across the globe. I do it on a regular basis. We go over all the conceivable contingencies that could occur. … That’s my job. That’s their job, is to see that we have the ability to protect the American people and deal effectively on behalf of our friends and our allies and our deployed forces. So it is their task to work with me and ultimately with the President as the chain of command goes from the Commander-in-Chief, the President of the United States, to me, to the combatant commanders. And they’re doing exactly what I’ve asked them to do and what the President has asked me to do.

Ooops. I made a typo. This press conference was from August of 2002 and the country in question was Iraq. We suspected then and now know for a fact that Bush had already set in motion his inexorable plan of attack when he made these remarks. Now Bush expects the world to take him at his word again when he says that he isn’t planning to launch an attack against Iran. Unfortunately, he no longer has any credibility so when he says these things, the default position of most people is to assume he’s lying, and that includes the leadership of Iran.

Kevin Drum addresses this and rightly takes to task the thick literalists who say it’s ridiculous to worry about this Iran thing because “of course he has contingency plans.” With Bush’s history, that is entirely beside the point. He says:

…what’s important isn’t the existence of the contingency plans. Rather, it’s the fairly obvious fact that the Bush administration is publicizing them as part of a very public PR campaign in favor of a strike against Iran. The problem is that even if this is a bluff, it’s one that has a profound effect on both Iran and the American public. As James Fallows says:

By giving public warnings, the United States and Israel “create ‘excess demand’ for military action,” as our war-game leader Sam Gardiner recently put it, and constrain their own negotiating choices.

In other words, if the PR campaign is too successful, then Bush will have boxed himself in. Eventually he’ll feel obligated to bomb Iran solely because he’s now under pressure to make good on his threats and doesn’t want to look like he’s backing down. World Wars have started over less.

His “PR campaign” unfortunately may very well be successful (as it was the last time.) This is deja vu all over again. But Bush no longer has the option of bluffing even if he wants to. He tossed that in the toilet along with America’s integrity and reputation back in the summer and fall of 2002. After the Iraq debacle, bellicose saber rattling has the perverse effect of bringing about the event it’s designed to avert.

There can be no doubt that Iran believes we are planning a strike and there is every reason to fear that Bush’s threats will push them to make decisions that will force the US into the corner that Fallows predicts. The only question is, as Sy Hersh reports, whether the military will go along this time.

After five years of disasterous foreign policy, the Bush administration has left this country with almost none of the tools it used to have to shape world events. He pushed arrogant military unilateralism for years and now he’s stuck with it as his only option. We are weaker as a world power, we have no moral authority and nobody trusts this government’s intentions. The US now exists in a universe of vastly reduced maneuverability because of what he’s done and not just because of our stretched military. Our credibility is in shreds.

Kevin says that World Wars have started over less than this and that’s absolutely true. Bush may have pushed this country to the point where the only option it has is military force because nobody believes a word our government says. This may be the scariest moment we’ve faced since 9/11.

Update: Just to scare everybody witless even more on a Tuesday morning, Josh Marshall writes:

It is also not too early to point out that the evidence is there for the confluence of two destructive and disastrous forces — hawks in the administration’s Cheney faction whose instinctive bellicosity is only matched by their actual incompetence (a fatal mixture if there ever was one), and the president’s chief political aides who see the build up to an Iran confrontation as the most promising way to contest the mid-term elections. Both those groups are strongly motivated for war. And who is naive enough to imagine a contrary force within the administration strong enough to put on the brakes?

Not me. These people are like cornered animals desperate to recapture that bullhorn moment and redeem their failed ideology. It’s a very, very dangerous combo.

Oh and is everyone aware that Dick Cheney’s daughter is “freedom agenda co-ordinator” and “democracy czar” in charge of the Iran propaganda group at the State Department? She is. I knew that would make you feel better.

Did I hear something about Cheney accusing Joe and Valerie Wilson of nepotism? I didn’t think so.

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