Flying Blind

What happens when a horserace is being called by different commentators in completely different ways? This post in Salon’s War Room again shows that something has gone seriously wrong with the polling this election:

It’s been said that the 2004 election would be a challenge for pollsters, and today’s polls are a fine demonstration. Put simply, side by side they make little to no sense.

In the national arena, the Associated Press finds Bush up by nine points, 52-41. An Economist poll, conducted on the same days, finds Kerry leading by one point. Both surveys were of registered voters, so previous disputes between pollsters regarding who constitutes a likely voter, can’t account for the discrepancy.

Some new state polls also lead nowhere, with Wisconsin going from a two-point Kerry lead to a 14-point Bush romp in 24 hours, and Oregon, which went from a 12-point Kerry rout to a one-point Bush lead in the same span. And two Florida polls released today are at odds. Gallup gives Bush a 47-45 lead among registered voters, while Quinnipiac University finds Bush ahead 49-41.

I wonder if the campaigns can trust their own polls any more than these? How scary. Politics without a net.

I’m beginning to truly believe that this race is the one we’ve all been waiting for for the last few cycles — the election when so many people screen their calls and so many people use cell phones that you can no longer get an accurate sample.

One experiment worth watching is the Zogby online poll. He seems to have faith that he’s got a good model. We’ll see.

If we don’t see a better consensus before November 2nd, it’s going to be one nail-biter of a night.