Misoverinterpretation

Ferchristsake. Apparently, I’ve caused something of a stir over on Kos and unfortunately, I’m not registered there (although gawd knows I read it obsessively) so I cannot respond properly in the comments section.

First, my comment in the “Diving Into the Mud” post about “girly-men” was an ironic play on Arnold’s little tag line. I certainly was not referring to any individual posters on Kos. I don’t usually use childish euphemisms in my own voice. I would have used the grown-up word if I meant it.

The fact is that I was mock lecturing generic handwringers whom I assumed were about to launch into a full fledged freak-out about the “spineless” Kerry campaign and how they didn’t “fight back” a fact which is evident by my statement “the Republicans do not respond to adversity by turning on their candidate and neither should we. Take a deep breath and then get mad — not at Kerry. At Bush.”

All I knew at the time, yesterday morning, was that Time, Newsweek and a coming Gallup poll were reporting an 11 to 14 point bounce for Bush. When three polls report a bounce, I generally figure there was, you know, a bounce. I didn’t say it meant that Kerry was toast or that Bush was coasting toward victory. My characterization of this bounce was that it was a “good” bounce which evidently makes me Wolf Blitzer. (And btw, doesn’t two years of hardball lefty blogging get me Olberman? Paula Zahn, at least? Geez.)

Shockingly, it seems I failed to thoroughly peruse Kos before I wrote (which I will never fail to do again) so I didn’t realize when I posted my piece that the Time and Newsweek polls were a subject of huge contention. I have since been informed that the methodology of weighting the party ID has been called into question and I greatly look forward to seeing those polls blown out of the water in the next few days. Believe me, when it happens I will not only say it is “good” I will say it is “fabulous!” (which probably makes me George Bush.) However, at this point, I think it’s still fair to assume that Bush did, in fact, get some kind of bounce. At least, that’s what MYDD’s analysis suggests.

Since the polling was such a small part of my post, when I was informed of this new information I did not think it necessary to clarify my words. Please consider this to be that clarification. The post should read, “Bush may have gotten a bounce, but I don’t say it’s neccessarily good because it may not be. However, assuming that he may be ahead for now….”

And all of the fine Kossaks who are offended by my alleged disrespect please rest assured that I was speaking of handwringing, 20/20 hindsight types not those who were calling the polls into question. Believe me, no one will be happier than I if all the new polls show Bush is clinging by his fingernails.

My post was not meant as anything more than a call to arms and an analysis of why the public didn’t seem to reject the smears and the ugliness of the Republican convention as I think many of us anticipated they would. My contention is that the zeitgeist of this race is “toughness” and a willingness to “do what it takes” and the one who convinces the public they will be and do those things will win.

It remains more likely than not that it will be close because most people have long ago cast their lot with one or the other. Bush’s alleged lead is highly unlikely to break beyond a few points and I fully expect it to dissipate back to within the margin of error (if indeed it ever went outside of it.) But, if I had to peg the undecideds who will ultimately tilt this election, I think they’ll go with the guy they think has “the right stuff.” And in this era, that means a guy who is willing to go for the jugular.

I have also concluded that hitting below the belt would only help our turn-out. The base is hungering for a show of force and while I have resisted it up to now, I think it may be called for. This feeling of impotence is going to take its toll. If turnout is key, the Kerry campaign has to be willing to feed its beast a little red meat from time to time. Clearly, the Republicans understand this and so should we.

Donkey Rising says that this is a panic reaction, but I really don’t see it that way. The polls, bounce or not, only show me that Bush’s over-the-top mud slinging isn’t hurting him and may very well be helping him. And, it’s not going to stop. Certainly, the tracking polls during the convention don’t show that people were turned off by the likes of Zell and Cheney. The numbers went up. I saw Bush out there on the stump today extolling Zells virtues and saying it proved that the GOP welcomed Democrats. While those of us in blogland recoil at such naked aggression, I think plenty of people think it’s the sign of a fighter, even if they disagree with their policies. Ask Richard Cohen. He finds their “amoral wildness” to be “beautiful.”

We are in the midst of a national security crisis that is the sub-text of everything going on in this campaign. The campaign is a proxy for handling that crisis and Bush is showing that he will do anything to win. I think that tips it to him if we don’t hit back hard. John Judis draws a comparison to 1980 and says Reagan won by only occasionally responding to attacks and directing attention to the underlying failures of the Carter administration. Perhaps that’s how he won, but I also remember a relentlessly negative press corps and a deeply divided Democratic establishment ripping at Carter day in and day out over the economy and the Iran hostage crisis while Carter used a Rose Garden Strategy and barely campaigned. People were very skeptical of Reagan, but at the end of the day, Reagan won because he was able to show the nation that he was not a scary madman while persuading them that Carter was a wimp. It’s a different set of problems for Kerry. Reagan laying back and responding to Carter like he was landing fly swats made him seem reasonable. Kerry laying back makes him seem weak. Republicans and Democrats labor under different assumptions and must meet different thresholds on national security.

And, then there is the fact that our political discourse, thanks to the Mighty Wurlitzer and cable infotainment, has become a sewer. We need to fix that. But, we can’t do it between now and November so we have to work within the parameters that exist. To get the mediawhores’ attention we have to do something dramatic and it has to put Bush on the defensive — the place he functions worst.

That’s all I’m saying.