Deep Breath

Josh Marshall has posted an analysis by Charlie Cook that I had also planned to write about which shows that the electoral college count is still tilted slightly to Bush. He says:

A veteran politics watcher like Cook can see through that smoke and take into account the poor quality in some polls and deeper trends at work in given states. For that reason, I put a lot of stock in Cook’s opinion.

I’ve also always found Cook to be very astute and his analysis makes wonder if we Democrats aren’t in the middle of another one of those fugue states in which we start having visions of landslides and certain winners without any data to back it up. Cook writes:

In adding up all the electoral votes that are in the safe and lean columns for each candidate, President Bush has a tight 211 to 207 lead in the Electoral College. Bush also has 120 votes in the toss up column. However, if you pushed each of the 10 toss up states to Kerry — who seems to be ahead by a slight margin — he would come out on top.

I am feeling optimistic about this election, but I don’t see where everyone is getting the idea that it’s a done deal. As much as I’d like it to be so, I still see a race that’s neck and neck where anything could happen.

The crowds on the ground are very encouraging and you can’t dismiss that. But, I don’t think there’s any doubt that the Democratic base is riled up this time and so it’s not all that surprising to me that more people would show up at rallies. And, we really can’t measure the Bush rallies by the same yardstick since they are completely scripted and controlled media events. We don’t know if his crowds would be just as large if he opened them up.

I’m not trying to rain on anyone’s parade and I hope just as fervently as anyone that we win in a huge landslide. But, I’m not seeing any reliable evidence of this so-called new CW that it’s “Kerry’s to lose.” It’s still tied.