Poll-eaxed

Donkey Rising has the analysis of this Gallup poll showing Kerry actually losing ground even though he scored significantly higher on all of the specific questions. It seems that the numbers fell significantly on Saturday for reasons unknown. I thought Saturday was an especially slow news day and blogged a couple of navel gazing posts because of it. I have no idea why this might be, and it’s likely some sort of statistical glitch. But it is now conventional wisdom that Kerry didn’t get a bounce and that means it’s likely to be a self-fulfilling prophesy. You can liken it to the debate coverage in 2000. Immediately after the first debate most people believed that Gore had won it without difficulty. But, once the spin took hold the numbers turned around and Bush was declared the winner.

From what I gather, however, the Kerry camp isn’t worried about this. It seems that they are gearing up for a tight race and that’s probably smart. Turn-out is key and for us turn out will be enhanced by the propect of another stolen election if the polls show it’s close. I don’t think they are going to worry too much unless Bush gets some serious traction or Kerry slips too far behind. It’s not that it wouldn’t be nice to have a handsome lead, but it’s only the beginning of August and a lot can happen between now and November.