Bouncing and Spinning

Following up my post below, here’s an interesting analysis from the LA Times:

Kerry Campaign Isn’t Banking on a ‘Bounce’

Observers on both sides predict a tight contest that will not be decided until late in the game.

Democratic presidential nominee John F. Kerry can expect at least a modest bounce in popularity following his star-studded convention, where the most serious hitch was a balky balloon drop. But now he faces an important question: Can he keep his momentum going until November?

The initial signs Friday were favorable for the Massachusetts senator: strong Nielsen ratings for his acceptance speech; a wave of generally positive news coverage; a record-breaking day of fundraising that pulled in more than $5 million on the Internet; and a poll that suggested support for President Bush may be slipping.

But Kerry’s strategists warn that the contest is tight, focused on a dozen or so of “battleground” states and a relatively small number of undecided voters who are unlikely to settle on a choice until the fall.

“We never expected great movement in the horse race” to result from the convention, Kerry strategist Tad Devine said. “We just expected to build here, not to end the race.”

Neutral analysts said that Kerry largely succeeded at the tasks he set for himself at the convention: introducing himself to millions of voters who had not tuned into the presidential race before and conveying a message that a Kerry administration would be strong on defense in the struggle against terrorism.

“I think Kerry comes out [of the convention] having unified his Democratic base,” said Stuart Rothenberg, editor of a nonpartisan political newsletter. “Maybe he didn’t close the deal, but he moved the ball down the field. I still expect a close race,” he said. “Kerry should get a two- to four-point bounce [in the poll numbers] and then, unless the Republicans mess up, they’ll get a two- to four-point bounce from their convention” in early September.

The actual increase in support Kerry reaps from the convention — especially from having his message showcased in news coverage — won’t be known until next week. But every presidential candidate in recent history has benefited from at least a modest bounce, with the exception of George S. McGovern, the 1972 Democratic nominee, whose acceptance speech was delayed by convention chaos until after 2 a.m. and was seen live by few voters.

Kerry’s speech Thursday evening was seen by an estimated 24.4 million viewers, according to Nielsen — compared with the 21.1 million who watched Democratic nominee Al Gore in 2000.

In another rough index of the convention’s potential effect, the Kerry campaign said it had raised $5.2 million on the Internet on Thursday, breaking its own record of $3 million set the day before.

Equally important, news coverage amplified the convention’s core messages: that Kerry volunteered for military service in Vietnam, that he will not shrink from military action now and that he believes the Bush administration has needlessly divided the nation.

[…]

A Zogby poll released early Friday — based on surveys performed before Kerry gave his acceptance speech at the convention — found that the percentage of voters who said they planned to vote for the Democrat was unchanged at 48%. But that the percentage of respondents who said they planned to vote for Bush had slipped from 46% to 43% when compared to a similar poll taken two weeks earlier.

That confirmed the most basic finding of other recent “horse race” polls: The contest is tight, but discontent with Bush has given Kerry a slowly growing chance to win.

“It’s a competitive race with a narrow advantage to Kerry,” Rothenberg said. “Most of the dynamics appear to favor the challenger … [but] it’s still a question of what events will move late-breaking voters. There are a lot of scenarios that are possible,” he added. “I’ve kind of thrown out the book. Historical analogies don’t work in an election like this.”

“We’re in uncharted territory,” Republican pollster Bill McInturff agreed. “We’re looking at a list of things we haven’t seen before in this generation of American politics, so we should be modest about making predictions.” Among the new factors, he said, was the stubbornness of voters on both sides of the partisan divide, which has kept Bush’s job approval rating — and his likely vote in November — hovering near the 50% mark.

In the six most recent elections that included an incumbent president as one of the candidates, the three who lost their jobs — Gerald R. Ford in 1976, Jimmy Carter in 1980 and George H.W. Bush in 1992 — all had slipped well below the halfway point.

“By historic standards, Bush does not look like the three winners, but he doesn’t look like the three losers either,” McInturff said. “He’s in between, in a new category. And a campaign with these numbers is not like any of the last six campaigns.” The number of undecided voters in the electorate is unusually small this year, he added, meaning the contest is unlikely to shift dramatically in either direction.

“You’re talking about 88% to 90% who say they’re locked in,” he said. As a result, both sides will campaign furiously throughout August, traditionally a lull before the Labor Day kickoff.

And both are focusing intently on the battleground states that probably will decide the contest in the electoral college — most notably Ohio, where Kerry and Bush will be campaigning today.

During his current coast-to-coast tour, which will end in Seattle, Kerry plans to fill out a policy agenda that he only hinted at during the convention, focusing on four issues: economic and tax policy, healthcare, energy independence and national security.

[…]

The question, Rothenberg said, is whether the GOP convention will have “a single, appealing message that can both mobilize the [traditional] base and reach out to swing voters.”

“The Democrats managed to do that,” he said. “They often talked in platitudes, they didn’t put a lot of meat on the bones, but they avoided the danger of sounding angry and bitter.”

[…]

“The biggest problem for Democrats is that some sort of event could happen that allows the president to present himself as a strong, decisive leader,” Rothenberg said. “We’re all prisoners of events, and that includes the campaigns.”

So, the lack of a significant bounce is predictable in this current climate. However, after building up the expectations, the GOP has the much better hand and will spin it, as David Brock notes, as a sign that the American people reject the Democrats for being “out of the mainstream” as Bush launches his new (gack) “Heart and Soul of America” Tour. (Picture Judy Woodruff and Bill Schneider tomorrow…)

Since this election has no historical analogies, perhaps the old saw about “new voters” really will come to pass this time. As I wrote below, we should all make it our business to get at least one of our apolitical friends to vote this time. It’s not asking too much of anyone.