No Resting On Laurels For Us

No boost for Kerry after convention:

The Democratic National Convention boosted voters’ perceptions of John Kerry’s leadership on critical issues, a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll finds. But it failed to give him the expected bump in the head-to-head race against President Bush.

In the survey, taken Friday and Saturday, the Democratic ticket of Kerry and John Edwards trailed the Republican ticket of Bush and Dick Cheney 50% to 46% among likely voters, with independent candidate Ralph Nader at 2%.

Before the convention, the two were essentially tied, with Kerry at 47%, Bush at 46%.

The change in support was within the poll’s margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points in the sample of 763 likely voters. But it was nonetheless a stunning result, the first time in the Gallup Poll since the 1972 Democratic convention that a candidate seemed to lose ground at his convention.

USA TODAY extended its survey Sunday night and tonight to get a fuller picture of what’s happening with the electorate.

A Newsweek survey taken Thursday and Friday showed the Democrats with a lead of 49% to 42%, a four-point bounce compared with a poll taken three weeks earlier the smallest in the history of the Newsweek poll.

Analysts say the lack of a boost for Kerry may reflect the intensely polarized contest. Nearly nine of 10 voters say in the survey that they are confident they won’t change their mind between now and the Nov. 2 election. That leaves little room for a candidate to gain support even when major events occur.

This isn’t actually bad news, but it will be spun like a whirling dervish. The networks barely covered the convention and it wasn’t watched by very many people, so in a close contest, this shouldn’t be unexpected. But, we have our work cut out for us guys and gals. There is no landslide. We are going to have to fight for every single swing vote out there and there aren’t very many of them.

The New York Times reports today that:

Mr. Bush’s advisers plan to cap the month at the Republican convention in New York, which they said would feature Mr. Kerry as an object of humor and calculated derision.

The Tucker Carlson convention. This is one of their patented tactics and it is very powerful and very difficult to counter. Just ask Al Gore. And it is guaranteed to get the media howling and laughing right along with them. That is one of the main reasons they do it.

Bush is also going to have his convention coming off of the flag waving pageant of the Olympics and right up on the 9/11 anniversary. People will also be beginning to pay attention more as they always do after labor day. Be prepared for him to get a better bounce.

If this article is true is should serve as a galvanizing cry for the grassroots to get out there. If all of us persuaded just one person who doesn’t normally vote to vote this time we’d win. I have a relative in a swing state who is apolitical but will vote the way I advise because she knows me and respects the fact that I follow these issues. I am taking the time to get her to register to vote and will hound her into following through. I think everyone can do that. Just one vote per Democratic political junkie could make the difference in this close election. Yes, it’s going to be that close.

Update:

Here’s an interview with David Brock by Liberal Oasis which sheds some light on the strategy:

LO: How successful has the right-wing been in counterspinning the convention?

DB: I think we don’t fully know the answer yet. I think the main thing is really going to be after we get the first polls…

…[the GOP] has attempted to set it up for Kerry to have a huge bounce…

…the fact of the matter is that with the race so tight, and Kerry’s base having [already] gelled…that it’s not really realistic for there to be a 15-point bounce or 10-point bounce, which is what the Bush pollsters have been saying they think will happen.

So what I anticipate is a bounce that is less than what Bush said will happen.

And then the entire spin will be about how America had met the ticket this week and decided they were too liberal.

That can’t happen yet until they get the polls. That’s number 1.

This is probably where the derisive humor begins it’s arc.