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A little something for the Hullabaloo Christmas stocking?
by digby
We’ve made it through Trump’s first year. We knew it would be a doozy and it was. Yesterday I did a short rundown on the ongoing horrors that was hardly comprehensive. Today he will get his first big legislative win: a massive tax cut for himself, Ivanka, Jared and the rest of the 1%. The “blue collar billionaire” will strut and march around as if it’s VE Day and his sychophants, enablers, cronies and fellow travelers will rejoice. They have always believed that tax cuts will fix everything and now we’re about to find out if they can fix their president’s 32% approval rating. We know they will fix whatever unhappiness their donors might be feeling.
But enough about the Republicans. Let’s talk about the Democrats. They have actually hung together, can you believe that? It’s a first as far as I can tell. Even the red state Senators in states Trump won big last year haven’t broken ranks, even to cut taxes, which is nothing short of a miracle. I think it says everything about the extremism and incompetence of the GOP but it also shows that Democrats have decided that opposing Trump is mandatory. I hate to say it but even though Trump is sui generis I kind of assumed they’d fold.
But let’s face it, it’s not about them. It’s about this:
If a Democratic official votes with Trump and the Republicans they will be destroyed by their own base. They seem to have learned that Democrats and Independents will simply not put up with Trump and GOP appeasement anymore. The lines have been drawn.
And here’s the really good news:
Democrats’ already wide advantage over Republicans in a hypothetical Congressional matchup has grown, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS. At the same time, enthusiasm about voting next year has increased among Democrats nationwide following an unexpected win in Alabama’s Senate special election and a strong showing in Virginia’s state government elections last month.
Among registered voters, 56% say they favor a Democrat in their congressional district, while 38% prefer a Republican. That 18-point edge is the widest Democrats have held in CNN polling on the 2018 contests, and the largest at this point in midterm election cycles dating back two decades. The finding follows several other public polls showing large double-digit leads for Democrats on similar questions.
Independent voters favor Democrats by a 16-point margin, 51% to 35%, similar to the 50% to 36% margin by which they favored Democrats in fall of 2005, ahead of Democrats’ 2006 recapturing of the House and Senate. The Democrats hold a larger lead overall now because Republicans make up a smaller share of the electorate than they did in 2005.
And those Republicans who are still in the electorate are less enthusiastic about voting next year than Democrats. Overall, 49% of registered voters who are Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for Congress next year, compared with 32% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independent voters who say the same.
The 18 point advantage in the generic ballot is unprecedented. If it holds, 2018 will be a tsunami not a wave. They won’t be able to pass legislation over Trump’s veto but they can stop this wholesale looting of the nation — and they can hold hearings, lots and lots of hearings.
This is happening because of The Resistance and a Democratic Party that’s being responsive to its base. That’s what the next year is going to be all about.
I hope you’ll stick with us here at Hullabaloo as we document what’s going on and give analysis you may find useful. My morning contributor Tom Sullivan is close to the ground down in North Carolina and tied in with grassroots activism all over the country. I’ll be following the big picture as I always do.
If you’d like to drop a little something in the Christmas stocking in anticipation of sharing this exciting upcoming election year it would be much appreciated. As always I’m immensely grateful for all of you who drop by to read this creaky old blog. It’s what keeps me going.
Happy Hollandaise everyone! Keep the faith.
cheers — digby
