Author: digby

Iraq, the Middle East and Change: No Dominoes

A classified State Department report expresses doubt that installing a new regime in Iraq will foster the spread of democracy in the Middle East, a claim President Bush has made in trying to build support for a war, according to intelligence officials familiar with the document.

The report exposes significant divisions within the Bush administration over the so-called democratic domino theory, one of the arguments that underpins the case for invading Iraq.

[…]

The domino theory also is used by the administration as a counterargument to critics in Congress and elsewhere who have expressed concern that invading Iraq will inflame the Muslim world and fuel terrorist activity against the United States.

But the theory is disputed by many Middle East experts and is viewed with skepticism by analysts at the CIA and the State Department, intelligence officials said.

Critics say even establishing a democratic government in Iraq will be extremely difficult. Iraq is made up of ethnic groups deeply hostile to one another. Ever since its inception in 1932, the country has known little but bloody coups and brutal dictators.

Even so, it is seen by some as holding more democratic potential — because of its wealth and educated population — than many of its neighbors.

By some estimates, 65 million adults in the Middle East can’t read or write, and 14 million are unemployed, with an exploding, poorly educated youth population.

Given such trends, “we’ll be lucky to have strong central governments [in the Middle East], let alone democracy,” said one intelligence official with extensive experience in the region.

The official stressed that no one in intelligence or diplomatic circles opposes the idea of trying to install a democratic government in Iraq.

“It couldn’t hurt,” the official said. “But to sell [the war] on the basis that this is going to cause 1,000 flowers to bloom is naive.”

Some officials said the classified document reflects views that are widely held in the State Department and CIA but that those holding such views have been muzzled in an administration eager to downplay the costs and risks of war.

[…]

Middle East experts said there are other factors working against democratic reform, including a culture that values community and to some extent conformity over individual rights.

“I don’t accept the view that the fall of Saddam Hussein is going to prompt quick or even discernible movement toward democratization of the Arab states,” said Philip C. Wilcox, director of the Foundation for Middle East Peace and a former top State Department official. “Those countries are held back not by the presence of vicious authoritarian regimes in Baghdad but by a lot of other reasons.”

Bush has responded to such assessments by assailing the “soft bigotry of low expectations.”

Wow. Move over George Kennan. I thought he said that the new regime would be reformers with results, leaders who knew how to lead. He said he had some stong talks with the Iraqi exiles and felt they would make fabulous leaders. He believes they can be united not divided and he promises to smoke out Saddam and keep him on the run. I never heard him say that not believing in fairy tales was the soft bigotry of low expectations though.

And then, there’s the deft handling of US Russian relations.

Oh Dmitri…

Washington had calculated that Putin, a pragmatist, valued Russia’s relationship with the United States above all other foreign policy issues. U.S. officials also thought that Moscow’s interests in the Iraqi oil business and its desire to see Iraq repay $8 billion of debt would be enough to ensure Russian compliance.

There have been some veiled threats, however, notably from a senior Bush administration official in Moscow recently who warned Russia of the economic costs of blocking U.S. objectives.

“What we have said is that if you’re concerned with recouping your $8 billion in debts and if you’re interested in economic opportunities in liberated Iraq, it would be helpful if you were part of the prevailing coalition,” that official said at a background briefing for reporters last month.

“The Americans failed to understand that in order to make Putin change his position on Iraq, it was necessary to offer and actually give him something,” said one Moscow analyst, Viktor A. Kremenyuk of the USA-Canada Institute. “In fact, the Americans have done nothing real to attract Russia and win it over to their side.”

These guys are so gooood.

That official, by the way, was likely our suave and debonair Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security — John “there is no such thing as the UN” Bolton. He’s the Zelig of diplomatic screw-ups.

Be Nice To Colin, Junior

I made a private bet that Colin Powell would resign from this administration over policy. That was 2 years ago and I thought I’d lost. Maybe not.

Fineman seems to think that the scapegoating is about to begin now that even he has acknowledged that the administration’s diplomacy has been a joke. Powell has his own constituency, particularly in the media. The Bushies had better be very, very careful. A Powell resignation could be the tipping point for a Bush freefall.

Here We Go Again

Even some antiwar Democrats are insisting they won’t criticize the Bush administration once the fighting begins. Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, who’s staked out a complex pro-disarming Saddam, anti-unilateral-war approach to the mess, says he’ll hit the mute button immediately. Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, a more unequivocal war opponent than Kerry, told the Boston Globe he’s not sure he’ll keep it up once the shooting starts. War critics like former Sen. Gary Hart and Florida Sen. Bob Graham may postpone official announcements of their candidacies if war begins, as expected, in the next couple of weeks. Only Rep. Dennis Kucinich and former Sen. Carol Mosely-Braun, who are not given much chance of winning the nomination, have had the courage to tell reporters that they’ll stick with their antiwar message come war.

This timidity is Reason No. 392 for the political question vexing Democrats right now: Why is it that polls show President Bush losing the ’04 election to an “Unnamed Democrat,” but beating all the Democrats who are currently in the race? Everyone knows this president is supremely vulnerable. He’s plundered the surplus and pushed an economic policy that has arguably worsened the recession. He’s angered most of our allies and is now on the verge of a potentially disastrous war whose rationale changes every day. His poll numbers dip almost daily, too.

But Bush can still probably beat any of the Democrats lined up against him, because no one yet has shown the charisma or the courage to break out of the pack. And otherwise admirable candidates like Kerry and Dean seem to be faltering in this early test of political integrity

[…]

Not just Kerry but the whole pack of ’04 candidates seems overmatched by the current global crisis. In a disturbing Adam Nagourney piece in Monday’s New York Times, dithering Democrats were featured complaining that in Iowa, nobody wants to listen to their speeches about women’s issues or unemployment or the healthcare crisis; they only want to talk about war! Even Dean, who’s benefited most from the surge of antiwar feeling in Iowa, whined to Nagourney: “I had a press conference and it was all about the war. And finally I said, ‘Would anybody like to talk about the enormous jump in the unemployment rate that was announced in the morning papers?'”

[…]

…They may suffer politically, for a while, whatever they do, because it’s true that the nation rallies around its president in a time of war.

But they’ll suffer more permanent political damage if they look like they’re backsliding on their antiwar views. Democrats have to remember this is a mess that’s at least partly of their own making. They’ve been treating Iraq like a tough campaign curveball, rather than a test of leadership and conscience, since before the midterm election. Democratic Leadership Council chair Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana typified the party’s cowardice when he told reporters last year: “The majority of the American people tend to trust the Republican Party more on issues involving national security and defense than they do the Democratic Party. We need to work to improve our image on that score by taking a more aggressive posture with regard to Iraq, empowering the president.”

Democrats mostly followed Bayh’s bad advice, caving on the vote that essentially gave the president a blank check back in October, to polish their “image” and put the issue behind them — so they could get back to talking about Social Security reform on the campaign trail. But voters didn’t listen. “I hope the party learned a lesson in November 2002 about the perils of going into a fetal position,” David Wade, a spokesman for Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, told ABC News just a few days before his boss issued his statement about not criticizing Bush once war begins.

This is a trainwreck. If the Democrats cannot formulate a respectful, principled opposition to the crazyassed imperialistic foreign policy of this administration we are in big trouble. They have simply got to stop being afraid of the the Republicans. They will be called traitors even if they don uniforms and go into battle themselves. Saxby Chambliss proved that there is no limit to how far they will go to impugn the patriotism of Democrats so they have absolutely nothing to lose by telling it like it is. That the GOP is so brutal and dishonest is actually freeing. Since their characters will be assassinated anyway, they are free to speak their minds.

The question is probably whether they know their own minds enough to speak them. And that’s depressing.

Necrophilia

Update: Apparently it is unclear that this post is referring to the absurd idea of bringing back remains of servicemen killed in France during WWII. The link below connects to that story. Kevin also has commentary.

They are working themselves into a complete frenzy, now.

This is embarrassing. I thought that only Condi Rice was deluded enough to believe that we joined WWII to “liberate the Germans from Hitler,” but apparently this is common knowledge amongst the scholors on the right.

On September 1, 1939 Germany invaded Poland. Great Britain and France declared war on Germany on September 3, 1939. In May of 1940, Hitler invaded France using Blitzkrieg tactics.

We didn’t rush right in to save the day like Superman as these morons apparently believe. While Hitler cut a swath through Europe we were sending some supplies and debating whether we should help out. When we were attacked at Peal Harbor on December 7, 1941 we declared war on Japan the next day. And on December 11th Germany and Italy declared war on us.

There was no overwhelming public outcry to liberate the French by good and wholesome Americans who cared nothing for their own lives but merely wanted to save all the little children. We went in because we had no choice. We had watched the war from afar for 2 long years before we actually joined and it was isolationist Republicans who were the most vociferous in their objections to doing it.

It was DAMNED LUCKY for us that it was the French women and French children and French old people who had to try to survive in a war zone on their own soil (not to mention for the American Jews who daily blessed their good fortune to escape the fate of the hundreds of thousands of French Jews who were carted off to concentration camps.) It is estimated that at least 150,000 French civilians died from bombing and Nazi terror and that’s not even counting those who died in concentration camps. In Britain, from August 1940 to May 1941 alone, more than 40,000 civilians were killed and 40,000 more were seriously wounded in bombing attacks.

This petty French bashing is obviously being coordinated by the Wurlitzer to give their neanderthals somebody new to hate. But to distort the meaning of WWII for partisan reasons is beyond the pale. It dishonors the regular guys like my Dad who fought in that war. I do not recall ever hearing him say that France, England (or even Germany or Japan) owed the United States their blind allegiance until the end of time. To him, doing the right thing was its own reward. This seems to be one of those much vaunted values that the current spoiled, silly trivial warmongers seem to have overlooked.

The French paid their dues in the fight against Hitler. They do not owe us anything. We were on the same side in a war against a tyrant who threatened the entire world and the French people paid a price for that fight that we can only imagine in our worst nightmares. To demean their experience in the war as these people are doing is shameful.

We used to be better people than this.

A Certain Kind of Nonsense

A Brooklyn Bridge has a number of good posts up on the Arlon Lindner (R-Homophobe Nutcase) scandal.

He alerts us to yet another fine, upstanding religious ministry that has taken up the fine Christian tradition of lying about history to further its Christian message of hate.

Given his connection to Abiding Truth Ministries (“Helping families protect themselves from the ‘gay’ agenda”), Lindner’s views about gays and the Holocaust are hardly surprising. Of the 19 books and tapes they offer, 15 of them are about gays and lesbians. (The others probably are, too, but they weren’t explicit in the descriptions). Like its founder (and author of The Pink Swastika), Scott Lively, ATM seems to be convinced of deep connection between gays and Nazis. In addition to an article, “Is there a Gay Basis to Nietzche’s Ideas?”, there this book:

“The Poisoned Stream”

Traces the “poisoned stream” of homosexual influences throughout history, particularly in Germany between 1890 and 1945

Is this an emerging meme? Should we expect “homonazi” jokes on Limbaugh? Andrew Sullivan (who so far has managed to miss the Lindner controversy), did catch a truly vile ad in the Weekly Standard.

Unintended Humor Department: among ATM’s recommend links are FoxNews, WorldNet Daily, and — rimshot, please — the Drudge Report.

Now, Peggy, I’m sure, will be having none of this. As she so righteously noted:

Republicans by and large don’t suffer from blind loyalty or blind antagonism. They would think it irresponsible to the country. They will bolt on one of their own if he insists on a route they think is seriously wrong (the first Bush on taxes). They will kill his presidency if they conclude he is essentially destructive (it was his Republican base in Congress that ended Richard Nixon’s career). Recently it was Republicans who did in their own Senate majority leader because they would not accept a certain kind of nonsense.

Needless to say, Peggy would not think it was a matter of conservative political philosophy to blatently lie by saying that gays were not amongst those targeted for extermination in the holocaust. Certainly, she must agree that saying that gays caused German fascism is a “certain kind of nonsense.”

Will she lead the charge to purge the party of Lindner’s outrageous hate mongering? Of course she will. This is Peggy we’re talking about.

Past Not Prologue

Patrick at Electrolite opened his blog up to another round of Nader discourse, otherwise known as beating your head against a wall.

I argued so vociferously during the campaign and vented my spleen so often in the months just after the election that I no longer have it in me. I like Greens and Nader voters and I just want to call a truce. As far as I’m concerned the whole thing is ancient history.

But, I do have one request. Knowing what we all know now, we really have to make a pact that all progressive, liberal, sane normal people band together and promise to work as hard as we can to oust Emperor Bloodlust in 2004.

No one could be worse, not even Joe Lieberman ( gawd forbid.) This administration has taken extreme steps to create an Imperial foreign policy AND an Imperial Presidency. This is what must be halted as quickly as possible. They have assumed so much power in the executive branch that our government is seriously out of balance. Only another party can right that. And, for better or worse, that party is the Democratic Party.

If it is difficult to rationalize with your principles, I say vote for a Green for congress and allow the GOP to maintain control. I will hate it, but compared to this cabal in the white house the congressional Republicans are pikers. The presidency simply cannot be left in the hands of Junior and The Retreads.

There really is no choice. So, I say let bygones be bygones. The campaign of 2000 is over and I’m willing to put it to bed. But, going forward, we need every liberal with a pulse (and even those without one) to vote against George W. Bush.

Can we all agree on this, at least?

Another One Bites the Dust

Atrios goes to the dark side. What’s next? Joining the Fox News AllStars? Partying all night with Ceci and Kit? Sharing a bottle of “151” with Hitch? My Gawd, sir! Have you no decency?

Seriously, congratulations to King of Left Blogtopia.May we dare hope that he will be getting some $$$$?

Well, here’s a big surprise. It turns out that Shock and Awe is yet another one of those dusty tomes that Strangelovean neocons have kept in their back pocket just waiting for a Chauncey W. Bush to be installed so they could test its crazy theories. Here’s the official DOD book on Shock and Awe. It’s part of a military doctrine called Rapid Dominance.

Rapid Dominance would seek to be more universal in application through the overriding objective of affecting the adversary’s will beyond the boundaries traditionally defined by military capability alone.

I hear that they originally wanted to call it Hegemonic Terrorism, but they figured that might have bad public relations implications.

To affect the will of the adversary, Rapid Dominance will apply a variety of approaches and techniques to achieve the necessary level of Shock and Awe at the appropriate strategic and military leverage points. This means that psychological and intangible, as well as physical and concrete effects beyond the destruction of enemy forces and supporting military infrastructure, will have to be achieved. It is in this broader and deeper strategic application that Rapid Dominance perhaps most fundamentally differentiates itself from current doctrine and offers revolutionary application.

Flowing from the primary concentration on affecting the adversary’s will to resist through imposing a regime of Shock and Awe to achieve strategic aims and military objectives, four characteristics emerge that will define the Rapid Dominance military force. These are noted and discussed in later chapters. The four characteristics are near total or absolute knowledge and understanding of self, adversary, and environment; rapidity and timeliness in application; operational brilliance in execution; and (near) total control and signature management of the entire operational environment.

Whereas decisive force is inherently capabilities driven—that is, it focuses on defeating the military capability of an adversary and therefore tends to be scenario sensitive—Rapid Dominance would seek to be more universal in application through the overriding objective of affecting the adversary’s will beyond the boundaries traditionally defined by military capability alone. In other words, where decisive force is likely to be most relevant is against conventional military capabilities that can be overwhelmed by American (and allied) military superiority. In conflict or crisis conditions that depart from this idealized scenario, the superior nature of our forces is assumed to be sufficiently broad to prevail. Rapid Dominance would not make this distinction in either theory or in practice.

To their credit, the planners did offer the following caveat:

We note for the record that should a Rapid Dominance force actually be fielded with the requisite operational capabilities, this force would be neither a silver bullet nor a panacea and certainly not an antidote or preventative for a major policy blunder, miscalculation, or mistake. It should also be fully appreciated that situations will exist in which Rapid Dominance (or any other doctrine) may not work or apply because of political, strategic, or other limiting factors.

No shit.

Thanks to High Water for the link. He also links to this analysis called “Awe Shocks” by Joseph Stromberg.

Here’s a bit:

Chapter Three catalogues and evaluates recent US interventions and teases out apparent lessons. There is muted praise for our sometime friend Saddam Hussein’s ruthless rocket attacks on Tehran, undertaken back when he was still salonfähig, attacks approvingly said to have “amounted to a reign of terror.”

It really does: Here’s what it says:

When our troops were having difficulty dislodging Grenadian soldiers from their main fortress, Marine tanks were sailed around the island to confront them. At the sight of tank guns, the seemingly stubborn occupants surrendered almost immediately without a fight.

The cease fire in the bloody Iran-Iraq war was quick to follow after the commencement of daily Iraqi long-range rocket bombardments of Tehran that amounted to a reign of terror. Given that both sides were exhausted at that point, a show of force could have been convincing. Strong U.S. action in response to Iran’s mining of neutral waters may also have had a sobering effect on the mullahs. Not only were Iran’s vulnerable oil-producing platforms in the Gulf boarded and destroyed with impunity by the U.S., but Iranian naval forces that had come out to challenge the U.S. Navy were destroyed. Iraq’s reign of terror, and the strong American message to Iran, possibly helped end the war.

You cannot make this stuff up. Read the whole document, if you can stomach it.

All I can say is, “Gee, I wish we had one of them doomsday machines.”

Thank You Peggy

It was so nice of her to help out the hapless Dems with some sad, heartfelt observations of our snobbishness, elitism and exclusionary tactics. She said:

“Be pro-free-speech again. Allow internal divisions and dissent. A vital political party should have divisions and dissent.”

“Stop being the party of snobs. Show love for your country and its people–all its people. Stop looking down on those who resist your teachings

“Stop the ideology. A lot of Democratic Party movers and intellectuals have created or inherited a leftist ideology that they try to impose on life. It doesn’t spring from life; it’s forced on life, and upon people. Stop doing that–it’s what weirdos who are detached from reality do.”

That was such good advice. You can’t say too much about it. What could be more important to a political party’s intellectual vitality

than to allow all points of view?This is what makes Peggy a national treasure. Her consistency, her caring advice to the opposition, her committment to values and principles that all Americans should (and so rarely do) hold dear are the very definition of the American character.

It’s called Honor and Integrity

Or, as Peggy says, “It’s called, class.”

Eastern Front

MOSCOW – The US envoy to Russia has warned Moscow to think twice about the consequences of using its UN veto to block military action against Iraq.

And in a further sign of deteriorating US-Russia relations over the Iraq crisis, a top Russian official said Washington’s bellicose stance could freeze a key nuclear arms pact

Why are we ratcheting up the rhetoric at this particular time? What could be causing this relationship — with a country that actually has a whole big bunch of nuclear weapons — to deteriorate like this? It just doesn’t seem like a good idea to be even thinking about freezing nuclear arms pacts and withholding economic aid from Russia right now. Who would even think of such a thing?

A Kremlin spokeswoman said US President George W Bush discussed the Iraq crisis with Russian President Vladimir Putin by telephone on Wednesday.

Not a good idea.

I knew President Merkin Muffley. President Merkin Muffley was a friend of mine. And you sir are no President Merkin Muffley.