Skip to content

Digby's Hullabaloo Posts

Political Science

Boom goes Iowa….

Randy Newman

Let’s not count chickens too soon. But for sufferers of Trump fatigue there is good news percolating in places like Iowa where the race for governor is suddenly close (Cook’s):

The battle for Iowa’s governorship is officially a barnburner.

Internal polls from sources in both parties now show Democratic state Auditor Rob Sand with a lead over his expected Republican opponent, Rep. Randy Feenstra. Sand’s enormous cash stockpile — he sits on $13.2 million to Feenstra’s $3.2 million on hand — ensures that he’ll be able to plaster his populist message on the airwaves all the way to Election Day, and national GOP operatives acknowledge they’ll have to spend heavily in Iowa to stay in the hunt. As a competitive general election looms, this race shifts from Lean Republican to Toss Up.

Trump won Iowa by 13 points.

Political Tribune notes:

At the center of that shift is Sand himself. He sits on $13.2 million in cash compared to Republican frontrunner Randy Feenstra’s $3.2 million, has visited all 99 counties, appeared on conservative media, and even collected petition signatures from registered Republicans, running with momentum on his side.

And right now, the momentum is doing most of the work. Trump’s tariffs have hit Iowa’s corn and soybean exports, while outgoing Republican Governor Kim Reynolds carries an approval rating that has been underwater for more than a year, partly tied to a school voucher push that has created budget strain in multiple major districts.

It’s not just Iowa. Trump is 23 points underwater nationally, Elliot Morris observes. His commentary on “cross-pressured” voters attempts to explain why -23 for Trump is only +6 for Democrats. In part because “one-third of the cross-pressured Trump disapprovers are effectively unavailable for Democrats.”

So while it’s encouraging to see prominent MAGAs leaving Trump behind, don’t think that means more votes for Democrats.

Looking ahead, prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket now give Democrats an 87% chance of retaking the House in November, while Polymarket puts their Senate chances at 53%, up sharply from 17% before the Iran war pushed gas prices past $4 a gallon.

Rich Logis, founder of the nonprofit Leaving MAGA, tells Daily Beast that grievances he hears from MAGAs are both ideological and practical:

Trump campaigned on lowering costs, but gas prices now average more than $4 a gallon. A recent poll found that as many as seven in 10 Americans blame Trump’s tariff policies for high prices. His pledge to avoid “endless wars” has collided with military conflict in Iran.

Trump’s tariffs have certainly hit Iowa’s corn and soybean exports hard. And his failed pledge to lower costs is driving up the cost fertilizer for Iowa farmers just as planting season begins and campaign season goes into full swing.

The Trump administration doesn’t believe in political science any more than the regular kind. So launching his one-man war of choice in Iran has been a massive political mistake. That doesn’t mean his 2024 voters will vote Democrat this fall. They may simply stay home. Works for me.

He dropped the big one, all right. Right on his presidency. Let’s see what happens.

No one likes us, I don’t know why
We may not be perfect, but heaven knows we try

(h/t BF)

Paul is back (he never really left us, luv)

I swear, Paul is everywhere, man. This documentary premieres on BBC-2 tonight:

Damn, I wish I could get BBC-2 here in the colonies; that’s right in my wheelhouse (yes, I know there are various “ways” to tap into the live feed, but I get the impression they all involve hoisting the pirate flag to the toppermost of the poppermost before setting sail).

Oprah shared a great Macca story with Stephen Colbert this week:

Very sweet. Although, I have to say-this remains my favorite anecdote:

Two weeks ago, Sir Paul rocked L.A. in his first concert dates for 2026:

Playing the first of two nights at the Fonda Theatre in Hollywood Friday night, Paul McCartney acknowledged the tiered arrangement that had VIPs up in the balcony and the hoi polloi down on the floor. “Hello, you people upstairs, in the posh seats,” he said early in the show, and then, “You poor people down here have gotta stand up.” It almost seemed as if he might be alluding to a similar, famous speech given when the Beatles played for British royalty in 1963 — “The people in the cheaper seats, clap your hands, and the rest of you, if you’d just rattle your jewelry.” That was John’s thing, back then, but leave it to both Beatles to have a bemused sense of class consciousness.

Of course, when the world’s most celebrated living musician is playing at a 1,200-capacity venue, everyone in attendance is feeling like a VIP. Maybe most of all those on the floor, who, perhaps more to the point, had reason to feel like lottery winners. While there were some guest-listers at ground level as well, most of those in attendance had made it through a system in which they pre-registered with AXS and were selected for the opportunity to purchase $200 tickets (or a more expensive tier with exclusive merch bags). […]

Although they also got the chance to buy freshly minted merch with the logo of his forthcoming album, “The Boys of Dungeon Lane,” he did not premiere anything from that impending set, nor even play “Days We Left Behind,” which was just released Thursday as his first new single in five and a half years.

McCartney did mention “Days We Left Behind,” which led to the expectation he was about to play the nostalgic ballad, before he set the crowd straight. “We’re in the process of learning it, so don’t ask us to do it” he said, going on to explain what was giving him a little trouble in getting it down for live purposes. “And it’s in B, but I wrote it in C, but for some reason it’s in B.. I said, no, too much for me!” he quipped, apparently writing the disparity off as an Andrew Watt thing. Nonetheless, there were appreciative shouts about the new song, and McCartney replied, “I’m glad you love it.”

The new single is quite lovely, actually:

I daresay, at 83, Paul is starting to act his age:

Looking back at white and black
Reminders of my past
Smoky bars and cheap guitars
But nothing built to last

[CHORUS]
Nothing ever stays
Nothing comes to mind
No one can erase
The days we left behind

See the boys of Dungeon Lane
Along the Mersey shore
Some of them will feel the pain
But some were meant for more

[CHORUS]

[BRIDGE]
We met at Forthlin Road
And wrote a secret code
To never be spoken
I stand by what I said
The promise that I made
Will never be broken

[CHORUS]

In the skies, the skylarks rise
Above the sounds of war
Since that day, I knew they’d stay
With me for evermore

He had me at “…along the Mersey shore”.

Then there’s the new Wings doc that recently dropped on Prime Video:

Yeah, I know…this poor bloke doesn’t get enough coverage. That said, Morgan Neville’s intimate, candid portrait is an absorbing watch; beginning with the dissolution of the Beatles and covering the entire span of Wings’ history (1971-1981). The story of Paul and Linda’s relationship instills the film with a deeply emotional resonance. Worthwhile for fans.

Oh…and Sir Paul will be the musical guest on SNL on May 16th.

You can “OK Boomer” me until the troops come home, but as fucked-up as the world is right now (and on so many levels)…the fact that NASA is back on track and Paul McCartney has released a new one assures me that somewhere, out there in the ether…hope remains for humanity.

Previous posts with related themes:

Here, There, and Everywhere Now and Then

A Cellar Full of Goys: The Beatles Get Back

Turn off your mind and empty your wallet: ‘Revolver’ Deluxe review

Fab Faux: 25 Best Songs the Beatles Never Wrote

More reviews at Den of Cinema

Dennis Hartley

Who’s Got The Cards?

The only reason they are alive today is to negotiate… sigh.

Good luck JD. He’s sabotaging you every time he picks up his iphone.

QOTD: The White House Spox

“Lightweight Jamie Raskin is a stupid person’s idea of a smart person. President Trump’s sharpness, unmatched energy, and historic accessibility stand in stark contrast to what we saw during the past four years when Democrats like Raskin intentionally covered up Joe Biden’s serious mental and physical decline from the American people.” — White House spokesperson David Ingle

*The quote was in response to Jamie Raskin sending a letter to the White House doctor requesting that he perform a thorough neuropsychological assessment and cognitive test of the president and provide the details to the public. Lol.

He Loves Them Until They Turn

He’s out of his mind…

Greg Sargent makes note of one little bit of news in that unhinged rant:

Trump’s eruption—which singled out critics like Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Marjorie Taylor Greene, and Alex Jones, who have attacked the war and declared Trump’s genocidal threat disqualifying—specifically attacked Jones this way:

Bankrupt Alex Jones…says some of the dumbest things, and lost his entire fortune, as he should have, for his horrendous attack on the families of the Sandy Hook shooting victims, ridiculously claiming it was a hoax.

Wait, so Trump thinks it was “horrendous” that Jones claimed the Sandy Hook massacre was a “hoax”? That’s interesting. Because after Jones first pushed his vile conspiracy theories about the 2012 massacre—which took the lives of 20 children and 6 educators at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Connecticut—some in Newtown publicly called on then-president Trump in 2017 to condemn Jones’s conspiracy theorizing about it. And they say it never happened.

It turns out that there’s a whole backstory here involving Trump, Jones, and Newtown that goes back many years. Now that Trump has reopened the topic, it deserves a recapping.

To wit: Back in 2015, when Jones was prominently questioning whether the Sandy Hook massacre really happened, insisting that it was staged by the government, Trump was untroubled by Jones’ claims. Running for president the first time, Trump appeared on Jones’s “Infowars” show that year to boost his candidacy. He praised Jones’s ability to get attention with his conspiracy-theorizing, declaring: “Your reputation is amazing.”

This understandably upset people in Newtown. In 2017, soon after Trump took office, the Newtown school board sent a letter to the new president, urging him to “clearly and unequivocally” recognize that the massacre had happened and denounce Jones’s lies about it. A perfunctory White House statement only condemned “hate” generally.

Jones is a certified nutcase and what he did to the Newtown families was one of the worst conspiracy theories ever perpetrated. It was inconceivable that any politician would seek his endorsement after he deployed his followers to harass and intimidate the families of those slain 6 year olds. But Trump did it and never denounced Jones in any way. Instead he cultivated him.

Now that Jones has turned on Trump (for his own purposes, I’m sure) he decides to mention in passing that his disgusting crusade was a hoax — a word that Trump commonly deploys to deflect the exposure of his own criminal activities. He defines the word narcissist.

The Failed Conquistador

Those are not good numbers. And they’re getting worse:

He thought he was going to march across the globe, seizing territory, flexing U.S. military might and economic power to dominate everyone in sight. Instead he’s made a fool out of America and fatefully diminished American power even going so far as to start a war in the middle east that he couldn’t win. There has never been a worse foreign policy president in all our history. Even some Republicans appear to be noticing — at least a quarter of them have no faith in his abilities to handle our relationships with every one of those countries.

Corruption 101

Republicans are fine with this. Remember that:

President Trump has repeatedly promised his top administration officials pardons before he leaves office, according to people who have heard his comments.

“I’ll pardon everyone who has come within 200 feet of the Oval,” Trump said in a recent meeting to laughs, according to people with knowledge of the comments. That radius appears to be expanding as the president repeats the line. Another person who met with Trump earlier this year said the president quipped about pardoning anyone who had come within 10 feet.

In one conversation with advisers in the dining room next to the Oval Office last year, Trump said he would host a news conference and announce mass pardons before he left office, some of the people said. The people said they weren’t aware of specific pardons being offered to specific people for specific acts.

They’re acting like this is just a joke. It is not. Trump issued a blanket pardon to all the J6 defendants and has already used his pardon power indiscriminately, 1600 in total. We know that he will do it.

Many have gone to allies and donors, or those who had hired them, coming after a social pull-aside or a round of golf. Some have received bipartisan criticism, including one to a crypto billionaire whose company boosted Trump’s own digital-currency company, and another to a former Honduran president convicted of conspiring with cartels to ship cocaine to the U.S. In Trump’s first term, he signed fewer than 250 pardons and commutations. 

He has apparently said repeatedly that he will pardon people when they tell him they could face prosecution for his orders. And let’s be frank — the kind of people who are willing to work with him are also the kind of people who will commit crimes without any pangs of conscience knowing they will suffer no consequences.

Naturally, everyone’s blaming Biden for pardoning the J6 Committee, Hunter and Fauci saying that broke the norm and Trump is just following his lead. That’s not true. Trump pardoned Manafort, Roger Stone, Steve Bannon and Michael Flynn in his first term and he knew that Biden was not going to go after his family. He did not test the norm that said a president couldn’t pardon himself so I guess there’s that.

I certainly don’t blame Biden for pardoning those people. Trump had made it clear that he was prepared to pursue vengeance against his political enemies and has taken steps to do it. They just opened an investigation into Cassidy Hutchinson!

I have zero doubt that he will pardon everyone before he leaves office. The whole staff and every single political appointee. I might even put money on the prediction market.

Don’t Stand So Close to Me

No halos here

It seems Kansas Republicans have made a song by Sting and The Police into state policy:

Republican legislators overrode Gov. Laura Kelly’s veto to create a 25-foot buffer around law enforcement and emergency personnel, a move the Senate leader said ensures Kansas won’t become like Minnesota.

Senate President Ty Masterson said in a news release that House Bill 2372, referred to as the Halo Act, keeps “radical protesters” from interfering with law enforcement and keeps officers and bystanders safe.

Masterson referred to riots in Minnesota when U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers injured and killed bystanders while detaining immigrants.

The bill makes it a misdemeanor crime to go within 25 feet of a first responder while they are working. A violation can result in a fine up to $1,000 and jail term of up to six months.

The new law would also keeps reporters 25 feet away and virtually end documentation by citizens with cell phones. They’d need cameras with long lenses and shotgun mics to record what officers are doing with (or to) detainees. Cell phones won’t cut it.

Darnella Frazier, then 17, was filming with her cell phone from a sidewalk a few feet away from Minneapolis police when in 2020 they pinned George Floyd to the pavement and squeezed the life out of him. She was close enough to both see and for her phone to pick up audio of Floyd’s cries of “I can’t breathe” as he died.

Frazier received a special citation from the Pulitzer Prize board for documenting Floyd’s murder. The board cited “the crucial role of citizens in journalists’ quest for truth and justice.”

Just not in Kansas.

Strength And Hope In These Times

Say something. Do something. Hell, sing something!

Photos byJulie Harrison.

We may not have peace in our time. Not from our self-described “peace president.” But we have each other.

There are clips on the net showing how Bruce Springsteen and the E Street Band open the Land Of Hope And Dreams American Tour they launched, appropriately, in Minneapolis on March 31. Springsteen’s monologue closes by the band launching into Edwin Starr’s “War”.

But someone overnight put up a clip of how Springsteen closes the show, referencing slain Minneaplis protesters Renee Good and Alex Pretti.

I wanted to share a piece of the transcript:

So when you go home tonight, hold your loved ones close. And in the morning, do as Renee did. Find a way to take aggressive, peaceful action to defend our country’s ideals. And as the great civil rights leader, John Lewis, said, go out and get into good trouble.

Say something. Do something. Hell, sing something! 

If you’re feeling helpless, hopeless, betrayed, frustrated, angry, I understand. I have felt that way too. This is a tour that wasn’t planned. But that’s why the E Street Band is here tonight. Because we needed to feel your strength. And your hope. And we needed to bring you some strength and some hope in these times. I hope we’ve done that for you tonight.

View on Threads

It’s easy to lose hope. Who saw the United States becoming a rogue nation led by a murderous lunatic? It’s not the country I expected to retire into. But you’re not living in a bombed-out building in Gaza, I tell myself. Like Springsteen said, do something to make things better.

The commuters who honk, smile, wave, applaud, and cheer Sign Guy five rush hours a week keep me from losing hope. Dancing like an idiot for about 15,000 of them each week feels like community service. I hope it keeps them from losing hope. The thank-yous just keep coming. The smiles alone are worth it.

You get the America you fight for.

Friday Night Soother

Baby mountain lion. Awwww.

Poor little baby:

It was an unusual scene. A lion cub alone for days in southern California’s sprawling Santa Monica mountains, emitting a noise that sounded like a cross between a purr and a light squeal, perhaps calling out for his mother.

Where was his mother? The National Park Service’s biologists, who monitor the recreation area’s small mountain lion population, visited the cub’s location on several occasions. They surmised that his mother had likely moved to another den, abandoning the cub in the process.

The lion kitten’s health was taking a turn for the worse. He appeared weaker and was losing weight. In consultation with the California department of fish and wildlife, the biologists swooped in to rescue the kitten, which would land in the care of the Oakland Zoo.

The 3-week-cub, later named “Crimson”, arrived in late March to the Oakland Zoo, emaciated and unable to stand, according to the zoo’s chief executive officer Nik Dehejia. He was “extremely tiny”, Dehejia said. The newborn cub could fit into cupped hands.

It’s rare for mountain lions to abandon their offspring. It’s unclear why exactly Crimson’s mother left him. “Often times we’ll never know,” Dehejia said, although one hypothesis emerged that the cub’s abnormality – missing toes – could have signaled to his mother that he would not be able to survive as well. “It’s hard to know how many cubs were potentially there, how many cubs the mother was taking care of.”

Now at the Oakland Zoo, Crimson is in an intensive care unit at the zoo’s veterinary hospital, Dehejia said. He has received bottle feedings every 3 hours to pump nutrients back into his body. He is the 33rd mountain lion that the Oakland Zoo has rescued. Another young mountain lion, a three-month-old named Clover, is currently at the zoo as well.

“We never want to pull a mountain lion from the wild,” Dehejia said. While the zoo is proud to be rehabilitating Crimson, they want cubs to be with their families, he said. “These cubs need their mother actively for nursing and socialization.” Crimson was abandoned by his mother. But, other factors including habitat fragmentation, urban development and human-wildlife conflict have contributed to the zoo receiving distressed animals, Dehejia said.

“More often than not we are in their habitat versus they being in ours. This is a broader scale issue over how we build, how we live, how we co-exist with wildlife around us.” For now, the zoo is focused on helping Crimson grow strong and weaning him off bottle feedings, Dehejia said.

Crimson and Clover being close in age could make them well-suited companions, although it’ll be weeks before the zoo gradually introduces the two.