
Brian Beutler raises the alarm about something we don’t want to think about but should: will our elections be safe? As he points out there is every reason to believe that Trump and the Republicans are going to deploy every trick in the book to limit their losses in 2026. He writes:
I don’t know if the effort will be diffuse and disorganized or choreographed from on high like Donald Trump’s failed 2020 coup. I don’t know if Republicans will abuse power to ratfuck Democratic candidates (as Trump attempted when he tried to extort Volodmyr Zelensky in 2019) or try to overturn elections they lose (the way Trump attempted in 2020, and North Carolina Republicans are attempting right now, with a state Supreme Court seat on the line). Some combination of the two would be a safe bet.
I confess that this is one of the things that’s keeping me up at night too. It’s not so much that I think they can rig elections themselves but that I’m almost certain that they will not acknowledge losses in red states where we might see some upsets in a wave election. We are going to have to start thinking about how to respond to this.
Beutler runs down the ways they may do this in more detail but also helpfully points out the ways in which Democrats have some advantages:
Republicans can’t just snap their fingers and steal elections, and Democrats aren’t totally powerless. If anything, at the moment, Republicans are drunk on hubris, and Democrats are recalibrating to the existence of an existential threat:
- Notwithstanding the slow start, and some missteps, Democrats have not been entirely complacent, and seem to grow less so each day.
- We have a strong tradition of elections in the U.S. This is not to say we had a perfect democracy before Trump (far from it) or to say that enough Americans take their civic duties seriously (they don’t). But even on the right—and notwithstanding Trump’s efforts to subvert faith in elections—most people treat basic democratic ideas as truisms: “It’s a free country.” “One person one vote.” “We settle our differences at the ballot box.” People who disagree with these assertions represent small minorities. Even Trump understands this. The narrative basis of his plot against America isn’t (as his tech-world loyalists say) that democracy is outmoded; it’s that democracy is sacred and Democrats are the real election stealers.
- Notwithstanding Trump’s obvious contempt for the courts, he still tries to fabricate narratives of compliance with the courts. To some extent this is just trolling, but it also suggests he’s uncertain what would happen (to America and his presidency) if he dropped the ruse and told John Roberts to fuck off. Even in wiping his ass with the 9-0 Supreme Court order to facilitate the return of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, he and his aides have maintained an artifice of compliance—lying about what the ruling says, stonewalling—while appearing before and responding to the lower-court judge overseeing the case on remand.
- A real and durable protest movement appears to have awakened.
- Trump really is misgoverning himself into toxic unpopularity.
- Elections in the U.S. are decentralized so even a top-down effort to cheat in 2026 can’t really be too systematic.
- Democratic litigators have lots of experience defeating Republicans in frivolous election cases.
- Special elections so far have been mostly uneventful, except insofar as Democrats have dramatically overperformed.
Beutler’s comment above about the Supreme Court is particularly well taken. Trump is certainly not dealing with the Court’s orders in good faith but he mostly has been at least paying lip service to the idea that he will follow its orders. When they stop lying and come out saying they don’t have to follow the court orders, we’ll be in a different world.
I assume Democrats are very aware of this election year danger. Let’s hope they are planning accordingly.