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It Polls For Thee

Published by Tom Sullivan on December 26, 2023

A seismic shift possible

Next year’s presidential election will be like no other. No matter who the major party candidates are. After the last, the outgoing Oval Office occupant instigated a violent insurrection to retain power that he could not win at the ballot box. The 2024 campaign will inform the world whether our nation “conceived in Liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal” can endure much longer.

Polls taken this early suggest that a race between incumbent Joe Biden and Donald Trump is tight. The House Jan. 6 committee determined that Trump “lit that fire” on Jan. 6. The Colorado Supreme Court, having found there was “no question” that Trump supported the insurrection, has disqualified him from the state’s ballot. Federal and state felony charges against Trump for his actions stand pending trial.

Norman Eisen, Celinda Lake and Anat Shenker-Osorio suggest the race could shift significantly if Trump is convicted before November 2024. First, those trials have to occur and reach that conclusion (New York Times):

Yet we have seen the effect in several national surveys, like a recent Wall Street Journal poll. In a hypothetical matchup between Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden, Mr. Trump leads by four percentage points. But if Mr. Trump is convicted, there is a five-point swing, putting Mr. Biden ahead, 47 percent to 46 percent.

In another new poll by Yahoo News-YouGov, the swing is seven points. In a December New York Times-Siena College poll, almost a third of Republican primary voters believe that Mr. Trump shouldn’t be the party’s nominee if he is convicted even after winning the primary.

The damage to Mr. Trump is even more pronounced when we look at an important subgroup: swing-state voters. In recent CNN polls from Michigan and Georgia, Mr. Trump holds solid leads. The polls don’t report head-to-head numbers if Mr. Trump is convicted, but if he is, 46 percent of voters in Michigan and 47 percent in Georgia agree that he should be disqualified from the presidency.

In a sane country, that assessment would be a no-brainer. But we are not a sane country.

An October Times/Siena poll indicates the conviction gut-punch for Trump would be stronger in swing states, leading to Biden victories in Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania as well as Wisconsin where Biden is already favored. The shift would be “seismic,” with Biden winning by 10 rather than losing by four percentage points.

The same poll also provides insights into the effect a Trump conviction would have on independent and young voters, which are both pivotal demographics. Independents now go for Mr. Trump, 45 percent to 44 percent. However, if he is convicted, 53 percent of them choose Mr. Biden, and only 32 percent Mr. Trump.

The movement for voters aged 18 to 29 was even greater. Mr. Biden holds a slight edge, 47 percent to 46 percent, in the poll. But after a potential conviction, Mr. Biden holds a commanding lead, 63 percent to 31 percent.

The allegations must first be proven before a jury, but even ongoing trials will affect voters’ perceptions. The incredible shrinking “red wave” of 2022 dissipated in the wake of the Jan. 6 committee hearings. MAGA Republicans across the country lost their races. Trump’s legal entanglements next year could cost him.

What does this say about Americans’ mood? The authors find:

… Americans care about our freedoms, especially the freedom to cast our votes, have them counted and ensure that the will of the voters prevails. They are leery of entrusting the Oval Office to someone who abused his power by engaging in a criminal conspiracy to deny or take away those freedoms.

Yet Trump has promised to do more than corrupt elections if elected. Freedom as we know it will become a memory. His Christian nationalist supporters mean to relegate other faiths and nonbelievers to second-class citizen status, to bellow about Muslim sharia law while imposing their own version. Trump means to turn civil service into a national patronage system for toadies. He means to turn the Department of Justice into his personal brute squad.

Felony criminal convictions, the authors explain, “will foreground the threat that Mr. Trump poses to our nation and influence voters in an election-defining way.” But those could come too late or never.

It will be a mistake for Democrats to sit on their heels awaiting that day when convictions come down. Trump will delay proceedings beyond November if he can. The Great Sedition Trial of 1944 that Rachel Maddow recounts in her “Ultra” podcast and in “Prequel: An American Fight Against Fascism” ended in a mistrial. The defendants turned that trial into a circus first. Trump would certainly try, even while splitting his time between campaigning and staying out of prison.

Many American voters will find the prospect of a Trumpish hellscape in which they lose their freedoms too abstract to be motivating and, until they occur, Trump convictions as well. Even then, Trump will appeal again and again no matter his prospects of success. Delay and uncertainty work in his favor.

Democrats must not wait for convictions to turn public opinion. Democrats must foreground the pending felony charges and trials themselves, and now. Replace “former president” with “indicted felon” at every opportunity. Waiting for the outcome of the trials is a grave strategic error.

Happy Hollandaise!

Humanity Can Still Rescue The Planet

Published by digby on December 25, 2023

And itself…

It’s not too late, but it’s going to take intense focus and attention.

Former Vice President Al Gore expressed optimism that humanity can still repair the damage to the environment that is causing global warming.

“The good news is we can reclaim control of our destiny,” Gore, who has long warned of the dangers of climate change, said on “State of the Union” in an interview that aired Sunday.

“We have the ability to do this,” Gore said, adding: “And it’s not impractical,” citing solar power, wind power and electric vehicles.

“We can do this,” he told host Jake Tapper, “if we just overcome the greed and political power of the big fossil fuel polluters who have been trying to control this process. It’s time for people at the grassroots level in every country to speak up, and the good news is, that’s happening too. “

Sunday’s episode of “State of the Union” focused on 2023 as a year of record-setting temperatures and natural disasters. Gore made it clear that humans still have to choose the right course and follow it to fix the planet or face grave consequences.

“If we don’t take action, there could be as many as one billion climate refugees crossing international borders in the next several decades,” he said. “Well, a few million has contributed to this wave of populist authoritarianism and dictatorships and so forth. What would one billion do? We can’t do this. We could lose our capacity for self-governance. “

I wish all of alive and all those who came before us hadn’t brought us to this point. It’s not fair but here we are.

So kids, I’m begging you to devote as much energy as possible to this issue and make the smartest political decisions you can make right now. This just can’t wait. — there’s literally nothing more important to your future. None of the other things you care about will matter if this doesn’t get fixed. It’s now or never.

Some Christmas Cheer

Published by digby on December 25, 2023

Classic:

And then there’s this. Oh my God:

Make it stop…

That’s the America Donald Trump remembers and wants to recreate. Please don’t let him do that. I beg you.

A Christmas Present And A Good Piece Of Advice

Published by digby on December 25, 2023

Social Security expert Nancy Altman has some news

Social Security is in safer hands:

Last week, the Senate confirmed Martin O’Malley to be the next Commissioner of Social Security. This is a major achievement: It marks the first time in over 25 years that the Senate has confirmed a Social Security commissioner nominated by a Democratic president. Indeed, commissioners nominated by Democratic presidents have headed the Social Security Administration (“SSA”) for only eight years of the last 40.

This fact is important because the Democratic and Republican parties have very different views about Social Security. Democrats created Social Security and in recent years have united around the need to protect and expand the system’s modest benefits. 

In sharp contrast, when Social Security was enacted in 1935, Republicans in Congress were overwhelmingly hostile. From the early 1950s until recently, mainstream Republicans largely voted for protecting and expanding Social Security, as the program became established and highly popular among voters across the ideological spectrum. But in recent years, as the Republican Party became radicalized, Republican politicians have returned to deep opposition to Social Security — though mostly in a subtle fashion since they know their voters support the system.

One way that they have expressed that hostility is by starving SSA of funding, undermining Social Security from within. 

It is important to recognize that Social Security’s funding comes not from the general fund, which has run large and growing deficits. Rather, its funding comes from Social Security’s trust funds, which currently are in surplus in the amount of $2.8 trillion. (In fact, if the trust funds ever have insufficient revenue to pay every penny of costs, including administrative costs, benefits would not be paid. Social Security has no borrowing authority.)

The starvation of the agency by Republican politicians has had its impact. SSA was once known for its extremely high-quality customer service, and considered one of the best places to work in the federal government, if not the best. Generations of families worked for SSA. But over the last 13 years, largely Republican-controlled congresses have cut the agency’s budget by 17 percent, even as the number of Social Security beneficiaries grew by 22 percent.

As a result, the agency’s staffing has fallen to the lowest level in 25 years. Beneficiaries face long wait times at field offices and when calling the 1-800 number. Many offices have closed their doors. People with disabilities are often forced to wait a year or more for an eligibility hearing for Social Security benefits, with many going bankrupt or even dying in the interim. Not surprisingly, employee morale at SSA is low, with recent surveys finding that SSA employees have the lowest job satisfaction of any large federal government agency. 

As important as it is to have a confirmed commissioner who has been nominated by a Democratic president, that is necessary but not sufficient. SSA needs a commissioner who will inspire the agency’s hard-working public servants, letting them know that the person at the top recognizes the invaluable work they perform each and every day. Perhaps even more important, SSA’s leader must be willing and able to push Congress for adequate funding. 

That is why the confirmation of O’Malley is such an important win for all Americans. That includes Republicans and Independents, as well as Democrats. He has a proven track record that shows he is the right person for the job. He has extensive executive experience from his time as mayor of Baltimore and governor of Maryland. At his recent confirmation hearing, O’Malley emphasized the importance of listening to frontline workers at the agency. As a confirmed commissioner, he will have the platform needed to share the stories of those workers, as well as beneficiaries, with Congress — and make the case for adequate funding.

O’Malley has other crucial attributes that make his confirmation a big win for all Americans. As important as it is for the commissioner to be strongly supportive of Social Security and an advocate for the agency and its workforce, the position requires a person deeply committed to serving the American people with dedication and compassion. O’Malley is such a person.

As a Senate-confirmed commissioner, O’Malley is in a strong position to provide Americans with the first-class customer service they deserve. That includes restoring the annual earnings statement which the law requires the agency to send out every year to inform Americans about their earned benefits. Importantly, in addition to the fact that the law requires the mailing of the statement to every worker, the mailing is important for letting working families know of the benefits they are earning and correcting errors in reported earnings. Notably, it was a Republican commissioner who ended the earnings statements.

Moreover, O’Malley is the right person to address another serious issue which has been in the news of late. When SSA has inadvertently overpaid beneficiaries, it has been mailing intimidating letters demanding repayment from people who often are not at fault and can’t afford to repay. This is cruel, reportedly causing great stress, literally landing people in the hospital.

SSA should stop this practice. It should also address underpayments. Though not as dramatic and terrifying as demands by the government for payments of large sums of money, underpayments are equally serious. They are quite literally wage theft, since — like private pensions — Social Security is deferred compensation. In this case, though, the wages are stolen not by employers, but by those who are supposed to be serving those it is stealing from.

The agency appears to believe that the law requires it to claw back all overpayments, including those that are SSA’s own fault, and to deprioritize underpayments. O’Malley is perfectly positioned to bring a fresh perspective, to interpret the law more compassionately and to prioritize true program integrity which includes underpayments, not just overpayments. In the highly unlikely event he finds his hands are tied, he is the right person to let Congress and the American people know who is to blame.

And there is another crucial win that the American people will have as a result of O’Malley’s confirmation. Our Social Security system is intended to provide more than just a monthly check. It is supposed to provide Americans with a sense of security that if they lose income in the event of old age, disability or the death of a family breadwinner, Social Security’s earned benefits will be there for them.

When the 2024 Social Security Trustees Report is released next Spring, O’Malley should lead the other trustees in a clear declaration that protecting and expanding Social Security is fully affordable. 

That is an important message for the upcoming election. It is essential that Americans understand that whether to expand or cut Social Security is a question of values. President Biden ran in 2020 on expanding — not cutting — Social Security, and paying for it by requiring those earning more than $400,000 a year to pay their fair share. He should now propose specific legislation.

Even though his proposal is not likely to be considered in the current Congress now that “MAGA” Mike Johnson is Speaker of the House, it is still crucial that Biden propose specific legislation and campaign on it. The mainstream media routinely reports that neither party has a plan for Social Security’s future. But that is totally inaccurate.

A majority of congressional Democrats have co-sponsored legislation that expands Social Security while bringing in enough revenue from the very wealthiest to either eliminate Social Security’s long-range shortfall completely or substantially reduce it. In contrast, Republicans have offered zero substantive proposals to ensure that benefits will continue to be paid for the next half century and beyond. Instead, they offer only a process which would leave their fingerprints off any unpopular and unwise benefit cuts. 

Their leading proposal is a fast-track commission which avoids hard questions before the election and political accountability, as much as possible, immediately after. Their process would require Congress to vote on the insider commission members’ recommendations immediately after the November election. Members of Congress would have no power to filibuster or even slow it down. The process would leave no time for the public to digest what would be rushed through. Those who lost reelection would have a vote as would those who were retiring. Those newly elected would have none.

That is no way to treat an institution as important and universal as our Social Security system. In contrast, President Biden is championing Social Security for all Americans. He has nominated a first-rate commissioner and, fortunately, the Senate has done its job of confirming the nominee. Biden is fighting for increased funding for SSA and believes, as does the new commissioner, that Social Security should be expanded, not cut.

If the president takes the next step of proposing specific Social Security legislation and runs on it, he will win. The media will not be able to ignore an expansion plan if it is the president’s. When the electorate understands where the two parties stand on Social Security, Democrats will win. They will then be well positioned to move Biden’s expansion legislation in the new Congress.

When that happens, protecting and expanding Social Security will likely be the president’s most important and cherished accomplishment and legacy of his presidency. And his new commissioner, Martin O’Malley, will rightly be known in the future as Mr. Social Security. That will be a win not just for them, but for all of us.

I think it’s a great idea to center Social Security in the campaign. Biden is doing better with older voters than most Democrats (maybe because of all the grotesque ageism thrown at him?) and this issue could be very useful in firming up that constituency. After all, you’ve got Nikki Haley saying that “anyone who says they won’t go after Social Security and Medicare isn’t being serious” and Donald Trump saying that opening up the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge will pay for Social Security so he can actually lower Social Security taxes. Let’s just say they aren’t exactly going to be guardians of the program. Biden should take Altman’s advice.

Thanks And A Christmas Wish For All

Published by digby on December 25, 2023

I just wanted to give a shout out to all of my faithful readers to thank them for stopping by Hullabaloo to read our scribbles and put a little something in the old Christmas stocking. I’m a very lucky person and I know it.

I hope you all have a wonderful holiday, whether it’s about church, football, food, family or extra sleep. Or all of the above.

cheers,
digby

As I have done here every Christmas since 2003, here’s my Christmas wish for all of us:

Merry Christmas everyone!

Take Care Of Yourselves

Published by Tom Sullivan on December 25, 2023

It’s gone viral but whatevs

Today Show (12/15):

A new commercial from the Dutch mail-order pharmacy Doc Morris has left the internet in tears by showing the reason behind a grandfather’s drive to get in shape for Christmas with his family.

Also, get in shape for 2024. There’s much work to do.

Merry Christmas!

A little Christmas present for you

Published by digby on December 24, 2023

No, Trump isn’t invulnerable

A rare article that discusses Donald Trump’s overall vulnerability going into 2024. We all know this, of course, but it’s good to see the media discussing this instead of focusing on him as some sort of juggernaut. He may have a full-blown cult behind him but they do not make up a majority. A significant number of Republicans are leery of him too. He’ll win the nomination easily but all that will do is give him permission to really let his freak flag fly.

As Trump and his rivals enter the 2024 election, there are at least three signs of trouble for the front-running former president.

Here are some of the things that can and will happen to Trump as he pursues the presidency again.

Adverse court rulings

The potential of legal trouble is all around Trump, and could pop up any time.

This past Tuesday, the Colorado Supreme Court stunned the political world by ruling Trump is ineligible for public office because of the insurrection by his supporters on Jan. 6, 2021.

The decision could conceivably keep Trump off the ballot in Colorado – inspiring other states to follow suit – but Trump attorneys are confident the Supreme Court will reverse the disqualification ruling.

In the meantime, Trump, his lawyers, and his campaign team must prepare for the possibility of as many as four criminal trials in a campaign year.

Two trials – one in Washington, D.C., and the other in Atlanta, Ga. – involved efforts to overturn President Joe Biden’s win in the 2020 election. There is also a New York state case about hush money payments and a Florida federal case about classified documents.

The D.C. trial was scheduled for March, but is on hold because of pre-trial motions.

The Trump legal team is seeking to delay all of the criminal trials until after Election Day on Nov. 5, and for good reason: A criminal conviction would transform the presidential race.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll this month reported that “some 31% of Republican respondents said they would not vote for Trump if he was convicted of a felony crime by a jury.”

There is also a potentially damaging civil trial looming against the former president.

A second defamation trial for writer E. Jean Carroll, who won a $5 million judgement against Trump in May, is scheduled to start Jan. 15 – the same day as the Iowa caucuses, the start of the Republican nominating process.

Falling poll numbers; rising rivals

Trump’s GOP rivals warn that his continued legal woes will eventually wear out voters who might start to consider alternatives.

Trump’s rhetoric has also escalated, including describing political opponents as “vermin,” saying migrants have “poisoned” Americans; and threatening to prosecute political opponents.

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who is moving up in New Hampshire primary polls, says voters want to move beyond the turmoil of the Trump era.

“Chaos does follow him,” Haley told Fox News this week.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is banking on a strong showing in Iowa, has also said he would avoid the “chaos” of the Trump years.

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who is betting his long-shot candidacy on New Hampshire, is Trump’s most outspoken critic on the campaign trail. He says Trump’s legal problems and divisive rhetoric already render him unfit for public office.

Bad voter reaction

The ultimate bad sign for Trump would come from voters.

If Trump underperforms in the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 15, and DeSantis does better than expected, that will embolden opponents.

If Haley defeats Trump in the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 23, that could totally change the race. Haley also has high hopes in her home state of South Carolina, which holds its Republican primary on Feb. 24.

If Haley does well in Iowa and wins in New Hampshire, “momentum will swing heavily in her favor pre-South Carolina,” said Lara Brown, a political scientist and author of “Jockeying for the American Presidency: The Political Opportunism of Aspirants.”

In that case, Brown said, “both DeSantis and Christie likely will drop out.”

As they walk through a political minefield, Trump and his campaign aides said they are counting on a huge haul of delegates on March 5, the day of “Super Tuesday” primaries in more than a dozen states.

They hope to have enough delegates to clinch the nomination after a March 19 set of big-state primaries that include Florida and Ohio.

Even if he does that – criminal trials still loom.

If Trump is tried and convicted before the start of the Republican convention on July 15, his nomination could conceivably be challenged on the floor.

“Is one of our major parties going to nominate a convicted felon for president of the United States?” said Republican pollster Whit Ayres.

“I don’t know and neither does anyone else,” he said. “We haven’t faced this kind of thing before.”

Don’t let anyone tell you that Trump is invulnerable. It’s always possible that enough Americans will decide that they would rather have a criminal imbecile for president to eke out another win. This country is in that much trouble. Biden is an old man which is apparently the worst thing you can be — even worse than being a deviant cretin. But I still doubt it.

Merry Christmas!