Better late than never, Axios has decided to look at what will happen if Trump wins the White House. In this case their patented style is actually quite useful:
If former President Trump wins the election, and Republicans keep the House and flip the Senate, the U.S. would witness a dramatic consolidation of new right-wing populist power at scale.
A Washington fully controlled by Trump and his allies would institutionalize the MAGA movement, with massive consequences for governance, civil rights and international relations.
This period, lasting at least two years, until the next congressional races, would allow Republicans to move ambitiously — with few brakes beyond the Senate filibuster.
- The vast majority of congressional leaders are now Trump loyalists. The days of empowered never-Trumpers are basically over, at least in Congress.
- Trump would pursue a dramatic expansion of presidential power — gutting the federal bureaucracy and installing thousands of executive branch loyalists to rip off the guardrails that restrained his first term.
The big picture: We got our hands on a fascinating private presentation by FGS Global, a worldwide communications and public affairs consultancy advising huge clients on how to prep for various election outcomes. The presentation is based on a CIA method of anticipating, understanding and navigating geopolitical outcomes.
- FGS uses it to help corporations brace for big, potentially sweeping, changes to policies or regulations in the new government. We realized it would also help Axios readers brace for what’s next.
- This is the first of four columns exploring the most likely outcomes — and consequences — of the election. It combines our reporting with the FGS “Alternative Futures” analysis.
What to watch in FGS’ “MAGA momentum” scenario, with Republicans controlling both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue:
Immigration, border control
Trump’s immigration policies would echo nationally — and quickly. The wall along the Southwest border would likely be expanded. Efforts to curb both legal and illegal immigration would accelerate.[…]
- A Trump source told us: “90% of what Trump will do on the border will happen under executive action, so it won’t matter who wins Congress.” […]
Culture wars intensify
Social and cultural issues would become legislative priorities, as Trump and the GOP lean heavily into the culture wars. Expect significant legislative attention on what the GOP calls “woke” policies in education and corporations.
- Efforts to defund diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) initiatives would gain traction. New restrictions on gender-affirming care, particularly for minors, would become central to the agenda.
- Republican lawmakers would push anti-LGBTQ+ policies, and may seek to impose restrictions on teaching race and gender in schools.
- A Justice Department stacked with Trump loyalists could prosecute political enemies, including in the corporate world. Republican-led investigations into tech companies, accusing them of anti-conservative bias, would likely intensify.
- Schools, workplaces and local governments would become battlegrounds on issues of race, gender and free speech. Washington Republicans would side with local Republicans.
- Corporate America, under pressure from both sides, would struggle to balance these demands, with risk to consumer relations.
Foreign policy, global relationsAn unrestrained Trump surrounded by “America First” loyalists — rather than the generals and establishment hawks who held key posts in the first term — would take U.S. foreign policy in unpredictable directions.
- He’d likely withdraw further from international institutions, opting for bilateral deals focused on U.S. advantage. U.S. relations with some key allies would become strained as Trump focused on a more transactional, quid pro quo foreign policy.
- A strong anti-China stance would dominate, with tariffs and sanctions becoming central. Tensions with Beijing could escalate as GOP hawks push a “decoupling” agenda, roiling global markets and trade.
- Trump would likely move to cut off U.S. funding for Ukraine, forcing Kyiv into a peace settlement that favors Russia. He’d pressure NATO countries to ramp up their military spending, while broadly disengaging from the alliance’s strategic priorities.
- Trump would seek to reinstate his “maximum pressure” sanctions campaign against Iran and empower Israel to “finish the job” of eliminating Hamas in Gaza and crippling Hezbollah in Lebanon.
- An emerging axis of right-wing populists would give Trump new friends on the world stage, empowered to reshape the liberal international order, strengthen borders and challenge “globalist” priorities like fighting climate change.
Post-election risks: This path could lead to significant instability. A close or contested election could mean protests or violence.
- Claims of voter fraud, particularly in key battleground states, could undermine confidence in the electoral system and inflame tensions. The legitimacy of institutions — especially the courts and election bodies — could come into question, deepening the divide between left and right.
- Protests — think the 2017 Women’s March — are likely. Asked on Fox News about potential Election Day violence, Trump warned about “the enemy from within,” and floated deploying the National Guard or military against “radical left lunatics.”
There’s much more on topics such as health care, social spending, trade and economic policy etc., all of which are nightmares. I just highlighted the worst of it.
Axios will likely publish the same analysis for Harris but I think we all know that it will not be this kind of fascist agenda, even if she were to win the trifecta. I would imagine they will present it as a similar threat to what you just read above, however. And that’s a big part of our problem.
For all of Trump’s “distancing” this is little different than Project 2025. The wingnuts always have some ridiculous plan and nobody pays attention to it because it’s so outlandish and extreme. This time, we must. They’re serious.
