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Dems In Array

Published by digby on August 22, 2024

Kamala Harris looks and sounds like a president — so much so that you almost forget that if she wins she will be the first woman to hold the office. She seems so right in the role that you have to remind yourself that there’s anything unusual about it all. From her impeccably tailored suits to the authority in her voice to her confidence and ease in the spotlight, this is a person who is clearly ready to take on the most powerful job in the world.

Harris’s acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention was pitch perfect, filled with warm biographical details in the beginning and then becoming deeper and more serious as she talked about the issues facing the country, the threat from Donald Trump and the right and America’s place in the world. This is a mature, confident, leader who sounds optimistic, patriotic and strong.

The convention was, for the most part, a big, fun love fest with the party celebrating in relief that it has a good chance to beat Donald Trump with this new ticket and enjoying the more positive, hopeful feelings it offers after years of dealing with the darkness of Trump, pandemics and economic stress. There was lots of humor and lighthearted banter as well as some sentimental, respectful send-offs to the old guard as the new generation takes over. It was, to quote the overused word this week, joyful.

With some serious turns about women’s experiences with the new abortion laws and gun violence it was mostly upbeat. as best exemplified by Gov. Tim Walz’s stirring pep talk and the open love of his family when he accepted his nomination on Wednesday night. It was heartwarming and sweet. Many of the other speakers, notably the Obamas and the vast number of rising stars in the party, were entertaining and inspiring, And the convention program itself, although it ran long, was extremely well-produced with innovative multi-media strategies designed to go viral online and plenty of made for TV moments. The ratings outstripped the drab RNC convention substantially the first three nights.

But it was up to the V.P. to present herself as the president and pull together all the strands of the big conversation that had been happening for the past three days under the Democrats’ expansive Big Tent. She did that. The big party stopped for a while and everyone listened raptly. This was the reason they were there. She held the room which looked on at her with a mixture of awe and respect.

There’s been a lot of talk about Harris bringing the fractious Democratic party together but for all her charisma and talent, I don’t think that’s quite right. It didn’t happen just since she became the nominee or at the convention. I’ve been astonished at how unified (with the obvious exception of the war in Gaza) the Democrats have been for quite some time. I believe the reason the party is so united, surprisingly enough, is because of Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the two old geezers everyone is determined to finally put out to pasture.

The threat of Donald Trump cannot be overstated. As long as he and his authoritarian MAGA movement hang over the American political scene it is incumbent on the Democrats to present a united front to oppose him. There is no margin for error. The fact is that from the moment he was inaugurated in 2017 Democrats have been pragmatically working together in ways we would have thought impossible just a few years ago.

And to the extent that they have attracted independents and disaffected Republicans, with some featured prominently at the convention this week, Trump gets credit for that too. He may have divided the country but he brought the Democrats together and inspired a popular front that’s held fast for the last four years.

Joe Biden really deserves a lot of credit as well. He came from the mainstream of the party but was surprisingly open to the progressive wing in ways that Obama was not. He never tried to “sistah-soljah” them (in 90s parlance) by beating them up in order to remain credible to the moderates in the party. (Yes, it helped that there are fewer of those centrist types these days although the few that were there caused plenty of trouble.) And because of Trump, the progressive wing was ready to grab their seat at the table and take their wins when they got them. And there were a lot of them, showing that progressives can leverage their power within the coalition in a cooperative way. The party is more populist than it’s been in decades and pretty much defines itself across the board as unapologetically pro-union, anti-monopoly, and pro-family.

Biden built enough loyalty on the left that when pundits and some Democrats began publicly calling for his withdrawal from the race, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez openly supported him as did Bernie Sanders. In the end, once he accepted the inevitable, his hard work to bring the previously warring factions together paid off and the party was able to come together very quickly behind his endorsement of Harris and embrace the new ticket with little angst or resentment.

Trump reshaped his party too, of course. It is now more of a cult devoted to his whims and needs, made that way through mafia-style strong arming and threats. His purges of “RINOs” and apostates and the elevation of flunkies and sycophants has made the Republican Party into a dysfunctional party of weirdos and cranks. Whne Trump finally does exit the stage, the transition to the next chapter will not be quite as smooth. In fact, it’s going to be an epic shitshow.

Whether this new harmonious Democratic coalition will last is unknown but nothing could be more important in this moment than to present a united front to stop Trump. If Harris wins, we’ll have to see if she can navigate the inevitable jockeying for power as well as Biden did. She did have the advantage of seeing him operate so hopefully that will guide her judgement.

The Democrats have collected over a $100 million in small donation through Act Blue during the convention week. They brought in almost $36 million yesterday andd uring the hour after Harris’ speech alone they collected $7 million. These are very big numbers and they continue to suggest that the enthusiasm is on their side. If the polling trends continue, the election could be a little less daunting than we thought. As long as nobody takes that for granted, the Democrats might just pull it off.

The Billionaire vs the “Billionaire”

Published by digby on August 21, 2024

The fact checkers at the NY Times actually thought it was important to ding JB Pritzker for that joke:

I just don’t know what to say anymore about what’s happening at the NY Times. They have totally lost their way. Other fact-checkers have had a different impression:

Meanwhile, here’s the latest on Trump’s tremendous billionaire business savvy from Michael Hilzik in the LA Times:

Hiding in plain sight in the first annual report issued by the parent company of Donald Trump’s Truth Social platform was a statement of inescapable, well, truth.

Issued, perhaps appropriately, on April 1 by Trump Media and Technology Group, the report said: “The value of TMTG’s brand may diminish if the popularity of President Trump were to suffer.” This was cited as a “risk factor” in holding the company’s stock.

So here we are. Since July 21, when President Joe Biden ended his campaign for reelection and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to run against Trump, the stock has been spiraling toward oblivion.

TMTG may lack any meaningful remedy if President Donald J. Trump minimizes his future use of Truth Social.

— Trump Media and Technology Group acknowledges the limits of Donald Trump’s duty to use his own social media platform

From then through Tuesday, shares of the company bearing Trump’s initials (DJT) as its ticker symbol have lost nearly 39% of its value. (The broad stock market as measured by the Standard & Poor’s 500 index has gained almost 2% over the same time span.)

The shares have gained in daily value only five times during that period, and lost ground on 17. The shares closed Tuesday at $21.42, down 82 cents or 3.71%, following a slide of 3.56% the day before.

In the context of the grand sweep of DJT’s history as a publicly traded company, that’s not so remarkable. Measured from its closing price of $57.99 on March 26, when it went public, the stock is down about 63%. Measured from its peak of $79.38, which it reached that day before pulling back, the loss is 73%. Choose which of these calculations you wish; either one fits the dictionary definition of “ugly.”

He may lose and he’s become even more unhinged which may be making some investors finally realize that investing in Trump is for suckers and losers.

And you have to love this:

But other counterweights have become more significant. One is the question of what Trump intends to do with his own shares in the company, which came to 59.9% of the total shares as of mid-July, according to its financial disclosures. Trump will be entitled to sell any or all of those shares starting in mid-September, when a six-month lockup period expires.

Any indication that Trump is moving to liquidate his exposure to DJT would almost certainly crater the shares’ price; anticipation that he is plotting to leave his outside investors in the lurch, as he has done to investors, partners and customers in other ventures, may account for some of the shares’ weakness.

Trump owns so much of the company that he might be able to realize $1 billion or more via stock sales before other shareholders have a chance to get out the door without taking a loss.

He’s not even trying to really create value and his licensing agreement doesn’t require him to.

Then there’s the stature of the company as a going concern. It issues all the disclosures required of a public company in the U.S., but anyone reading them would be well advised to open a window first.

Financially speaking, although it still has a market value of $4 billion, the company doesn’t resemble any enterprise that could have been imagined by the value-investing pioneers Benjamin Graham and David Dodd. In its most recent quarterly disclosure, issued Aug. 12, it reported a loss of $344 million on revenue of $1.4 million for the first six months of this year.

It’s a grift and anyone who doesn’t realize that by now probably deserves what they get.

Hilzik concludes:

I wrote in 2021, when the SPAC deal to take Truth Social public was first announced, that it was poised to set a high-water mark for dubious investment schemes. In April, a month after the IPO, I wrote that that Trump might end up laughing all the way to the bank, but his investors would be left with nothing but tears.

We’re well on the way to that glorious moment when I can say, “I told you so.” Or maybe we’re there already.

And yet it is possible that Trump will walk away with a billion dollars from the scam. The man is a fraudster and a criminal. That he’s allowed to do deals like this at all is an indictment of our system. He shouldn’t be allowed anywhere near a publicly traded company.

Fraudulent As Usual

Published by digby on August 21, 2024

Tim Walz spent 24 years in the Army National Guard. He retired to run for congress. Now they are swiftboating him which is totally expected. It’s what they do. But now they’ve exposed their own military lies. Vote Vets tweeted this:

🚨If you’re looking for a textbook example of Stolen Valor, look no further than Donald Trump’s campaign and the 50 Veterans who signed this letter.

29 of the signatures come from Republicans who falsely claim they retired from military service.

The most egregious example is Ronny Jackson, the former Navy officer reduced in rank from Rear Admiral to Captain after retirement:

Vote Vets sets the record straight:

@RonnyJacksonTX – you were demoted from Rear Admiral to Captain – why are YOU committing stolen valor for claiming you’re a retired flag officer? 

And that’s not the only indictment of Jackson. He was busted down in rank because of sexual harassment, drunken behavior and inappropriate distribution of narcotics. He really should shut his pie hole.

How about the rest of these liars?

@TroyNehls – to see you signing a letter to ANYONE about stolen valor is the height of hypocrisy. Ask anyone who’s seen you wearing that Combat Infantryman’s Badge that you never earned! 

@RogerMarshallMD – you did seven years – why are you claiming you’re retired? 

@ScottForFlorida – you served for 29 months – why are you claiming you’re retired? 

@Babin4Congress – you did four years in the Air Force – why are you claiming you’re retired? 

@RepJimBaird – you did three years in the Army – why are you claiming you’re retired? 

@Jim_Banks – you’re still serving as a supply officer in the Navy Reserve – why are you claiming you’re retired? 

@BostForCongress – you spent three years in the Marine Corps – why are you claiming you’re retired? 

@MikeCareyOH15 – you spent 10 years in the National Guard – why are you claiming you’re retired? 

@EliCrane_CEO – you served for 13 years as a Navy SEAL – why are you claiming you’re retired? 

@Vote_Davidson – you spent 12 years in the Army, including your West Point time – why are you claiming you’re retired? 

@DunnCampaign – you served in the Army for 11 years – why are you claiming you’re retired? 

@FallonForTexas – you spent four years in the Air Force – why are you claiming you’re retired? 

@brettguthrie – you spent three years in the Army – why are you claiming you’re retired? 

@CaptClayHiggins – you served in the National Guard for 6 years – why are you claiming you’re retired? 

@WesleyHuntTX – you served for five years in the Army – why are you claiming you’re retired? 

@DarrellIssa – you served for four years in the Army – why are you claiming you’re retired? 

@JenKiggans – you served in the Navy for ten years – why are you claiming you’re retired? 

@nicklalota – you served in the Navy for eight years – why are you claiming you’re retired? 

@LopezforCO – you served for four years in the Air Force – why are you claiming you’re retired? 

@standwithbarry – you served eight years in the Air Force – why are you claiming you’re retired? 

@realannapaulina – you served five years in the Air Force – why are you claiming you’re retired? 

@MaxMillerOH – you served six years in the Marine Corps – why are you claiming you’re retired? 

@CoryMillsFL – you served five years in the Army – – why are you claiming you’re retired? 

@GReschenthaler – you served 5 years in the Navy – – why are you claiming you’re retired? 

@HalRogersKY5 – you spent eight years in the Army – why are you claiming you’re retired? 

@gregsteube – you spent four years in the Army -– why are you claiming you’re retired? 

@VoteTimmons – you’re still in the Air National Guard – why are you claiming you’re retired? 

@Brandon4ny22 – you spent five years in the Navy – why are you claiming you’re retired? 

Again, Walz served for 24 years and retired. These people did not, yet they claim to be retired service members.

It would be nice to see the media take the initiative to put these claims to rest. Instead I’m seeing it on my TV as a “controversy” which they aren’t bothering to debunk. Hopefully, voters will discount this nonsense for the tired smear that it is.

Money Isn’t Everything

Published by digby on August 21, 2024

But massive fundraising does say something

The cash just keeps flowing:

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris’ election effort has raised around $500 million since she became the Democratic presidential candidate, sources told Reuters, an unprecedented money haul that reflects donor enthusiasm going into the Nov. 5 election.

Four sources familiar with the fundraising effort told Reuters that figure had been banked for Harris in the four weeks since she jumped into the race on July 21.

Campaign cash is critical for advertising and get-out-the-vote efforts that help bring people to the polls and persuade undecided voters to swing a candidate’s way.

Harris entered the fray after President Joe Biden stepped aside from the top of the Democratic ticket, unleashing floods of funding that had dried up in the weeks after Biden’s disastrous debate against Republican Donald Trump…

Harris’ team raised $310 million in July, bringing the total amount of money raised by her and Biden before he dropped out to more than $1 billion, the most rapid crossing of that fundraising threshold in history, according to the campaign.

Trump expected to make a huge fundraising haul after his assassination attempt and the RNC. It doesn’t look like that happened:

Trump’s campaign said it raised $138.7 million in July…

The difference in enthusiasm manifested by those numbers is pretty profound.

He Went There

Published by digby on August 21, 2024

And it was spectacular

It went viral in a hurry

Thank you Barack. We needed that.

David Kurtz at TPM has a nice wrap up of the Obamas’ speeches last night:

Barack and Michelle Obama welcomed the Democratic convention to their hometown of Chicago, with sterling back-to-back speeches that harkened to the brighter pre-Trump days.

Neither has lost a step as orators, with precision timing and panache that very few politicians have ever mustered, except that Michelle is not a politician and this was never her day job.

While he struck familiar themes from his two-terms as president and wove them into the Harris-Walz campaign messaging in a way designed to make her a natural successor to his legacy, it was that pantomimed dart at the manhood of the man who did succeed him that brought down the house.

He was great as always. But in spite of his usual rave up Red state, Blue state stuff toward the end, it was much harder hitting against the opposition than I remember, even aside from the comedy.

A lot of silly analysis overnight about Michelle eschewing her motto – “When they go low, we go high” – as if calling out racism and misogyny is going low.

“Going small is petty, it’s unhealthy, and, quite frankly, it’s unpresidential,” Michelle Obama said. “It’s his same old con: doubling down on ugly, misogynistic, racist lies as a substitute for real ideas and solutions that will actually make people’s lives better.”

She also unspooled an anti-Trump thread that I haven’t seen Democrats use as often as they might have over the past decade, perhaps because they generally avoid explicit appeals based on class:

But her speech peaked with her invocation of Trump’s derogatory reference to “Black jobs”:

They both brought the house down, of course. They’re the best orators in politics and everyone, including the Republicans know it, which really makes them fume.

Here’s Michelle’s entire speech in case you missed it:

Rollcall Playlist

Published by digby on August 21, 2024

In case you missed the full roll call last night:

For those of you who wanted that playlist here it is!

Passing The Torch

Published by digby on August 21, 2024

I’ve told the story before, but it bears repeating in the context of the 2024 Democratic National Convention. I attended the 2008 convention in 2008 and it was a pretty ecstatic atmosphere. The Democrats were about to nominate their first Black candidate for president and his very close primary competitor, Hillary Clinton was the first woman to make a serious run for it. There had been plenty of bad blood during the primary and there were still some raw feelings that needed to be dealt with before the full celebration could begin. It was up to Clinton to heal the breach and it wasn’t going to be easy.

On the night Hillary was to give her big endorsement speech, I stood next to a group of young Black women who were clearly skeptical of her and were big fans of Barack Obama. They were not expecting much. But her speech was exceptional and by the end of it the women I was watching with were cheering right along with her supporters whom she had thanked profusely but also pointedly asked, “we’re you in it for me or were you in it for the country?” She wound it up by exhorting everyone to put their efforts into electing Barack Obama saying:

This is the story of America. Of women and men who defy the odds and never give up. How do we give this country back to them? By following the example of a brave New Yorker, a woman who risked her life to shepherd slaves along the Underground Railroad.

And on that path to freedom, Harriett Tubman had one piece of advice. If you hear the dogs, keep going. If you see the torches in the woods, keep going.If they’re shouting after you, keep going. Don’t ever stop. Keep going. If you want a taste of freedom, keep going. Even in the darkest of moments, ordinary Americans have found the faith to keep going.

At the time she gave that speech it was unclear if she would ever run for office again and it has been forgotten over the years, replaced by that other convention speech when she accepted the nomination and then her stunned concession speech when Donald Trump won the electoral college vote. But I remembered it on Monday night because she evoked those words again, saying that she wished her mother and Kamala Harris’s mother could see them now because they would tell them to “keep going” for the sake of all the people in the country who are depending on them.

But Clinton is no longer running herself. She’s passed the baton to Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee who may be the one to finally break through what Clinton calls the “highest, hardest glass ceiling.” She, like Joe Biden, has done her part and is leaving it to the next generation to carry on the task.

It was good to see her received with such respect and admiration by the delegates at the convention. I was a bit surprised to be honest. But she deserved it having absorbed so much misogyny and inexplicable resentment for decades on behalf of women everywhere, even often from members of her own party. When the crowd started chanting “lock him up” when Clinton mentioned Trump’s felony convictions and she smiled beatifically the crowd roared — she had earned that. .” (Of course, there were still a few who couldn’t even give her that.)

Kamala Harris is a seasoned politician but she doesn’t carry the baggage that Hillary Clinton carried with her from the years of being dragged by the right wing. Nonetheless, Trump is pulling the same nonsense with her, calling her “weak” and “low IQ” and suggesting that she’s ill equipped to deal with foreign leaders because she doesn’t have the “strength” to stand up to them. Coming from the man who practically gave Vladimir Putin a full-body massage on international TV, that’s pretty rich, but it doesn’t stop him from doing it. So far, it doesn’t seem to have stuck and perhaps that’s because many people can see his sexism more clearly now that it’s obvious he just flings it at any woman who dares to oppose him.

It was interesting that the convention scheduled another strong woman politician just before Clinton’s speech, Alexandria Ocasio Cortes, D-NY, who similarly brought the house down with a rousing speech extolling the virtues of working people. She pointed out that the Republicans are always taunting her to go back to being a bartender as she was six years ago and she said she’d be happy to because “there’s nothing wrong with working for a living.” Her speech compared to Bernie Sanders’ on the second night, speaking of the same issues in a completely different (and fresher) voice, indicates that the populist torch has been successfully passed too. She is formidable and the reception she received from the crowd shows that her message is now part of the mainstream of the Democratic coalition.

There were a number of other talented women featured on night one, such as the feisty Texas Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett (“Kamala Harris has a resume; he has a rap sheet”) who seemed to be channeling an earlier Texas political superstar Gov. Ann Richards who was also known for her twinkling eyes and rapier wit. Richards’ legacy is safe with Crockett. And Michigan also gives us an up and coming political star in the dynamic Mallory McMorrow, the state senator who went viral with a stirring speech about abortion rights last year. She was tasked with explaining Project 2025 which she did with appropriate disdain and humor.

And then there’s Kamala Harris herself who suddenly radiates confidence and gravitas even as her wide smile and casual body language reveals a person who is comfortable in her own skin. And she seems to be loving it which is possibly the most appealing thing about her.

One of the networks interviewed some women delegates who were quite emotional over Hillary Clinton’s appearance, the feeling bittersweet at seeing her in that spot when by all rights she should have been coming to the end of her second term and passing the torch to her successor. But after the crushing defeat of 2016, they had done what Hillary did after 2008 — they just kept going. And now they are thrilled at the prospect of a Kamala Harris presidency.

The Democratic Party is a party full of extremely talented, smart, ambitious women at every level and it’s no longer a novelty. What just a few years ago seemed like a treacherous attempt to make a great leap forward finally feels like normal. The party and the country are going to be much better off for it.

Time For A Drop In Interest Rates

Published by digby on August 21, 2024

It’s overdue

A big revision from the BLS today:

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday revised down its estimate of total employment in March 2024 by a whopping 818,000, the largest such downgrade in 15 years. That effectively means there were 818,000 fewer job gains than first believed from April 2023 through March 2024.

So, instead of adding a robust average of 242,000 jobs a month during that 12-month period, the nation gained a still solid 174,000 jobs monthly, according to the latest estimate.

The revision is based on the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, which draws from state unemployment insurance records that reflect actual payrolls, while the prior estimates come from monthly surveys. However, the estimate is preliminary and a final figure will be released early next year.

These numbers might not be exactly right, however:

Some economists, however, are questioning the fresh figures. Goldman Sachs said the revision was likely overstated by as much as 400,000 to 600,000 because unemployment insurance records don’t include unauthorized immigrants, who have contributed dramatically to job growth the past couple of years.

Based on estimates before Wednesday’s revisions, about 1 million jobs, or a third of those added last year, likely went to newly arrived immigrants, most of who entered the country illegally, RBC Capital Markets estimates.

Also, the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages itself has been revised up every quarter since 2019 by an average of 100,000, Goldman says. In other words, Wednesday’s downward revision could turn out to be notably smaller when the final figures are published early next year.

This may actually be good news:

The significantly cooler labor market depicted by the revisions could affect the thinking of Federal Reserve officials as they weigh when – and by how much – to lower interest rates now that inflation is easing. Many economists expect the Fed to reduce rates by a quarter percentage point next month, though some anticipated a half-point cut following a report early this month that showed just 114,000 job gains in July.

Wednesday’s revisions underscore that the labor market could have been softening for a much longer period than previously thought.

The fed needs to lower interest rates and they need to make it substantial. This might just spur them to do it.

Trump, of course, is turning it into a scandal:

Whatever. Numbers are revised all the time and were when he was president too. Fox will help him but the only people who will believe it are the die-hards.

Meanwhile…

Published by digby on August 20, 2024

THE moment

Published by digby on August 20, 2024

The NY Times reported:

Two other women shared their stories as well and the whole segment was incredibly moving:

Against a black background on the convention stage in Chicago, Amanda Zurawski and her husband, Josh Zurawski, described how she nearly died after going into premature labor at 18 weeks of pregnancy. Doctors at a hospital in Texas, which has a near-total abortion ban, sent her home, deeming her not sick enough to qualify for an abortion under the law’s exception for life-threatening emergencies.

“Every time I share our story, my heart breaks,” Ms. Zurawski said. “For the baby girl we wanted desperately. For the doctors and nurses who couldn’t help me deliver her safely. For Josh, who feared he would lose me, too. But I was lucky. I lived. So I’ll continue sharing our story, standing with women and families across the country.”

Kaitlyn Joshua told of being in the middle of a miscarriage and being old to go hom by two different hospitals because they feared being held liable for an unauthorized abortion in Louisiana. Hadley Duvall, in the video above,brought gasps from the audience when she said:

Ms. Duvall, looking directly into the television cameras, quoted former President Donald J. Trump’s description of states’ passing abortion bans as a “beautiful thing” and asked, “What is so beautiful about a child having to carry her parent’s child?”

The Democrats, women and men alike, are running on this issue as they should. Women across the country are energized and motivated to vote against the monster who facilitated the destruction of their right to own their bodies and access necessary health care. These real stories are powerful.