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Digby's Hullabaloo Posts

Passing The Torch

Published by digby on August 21, 2024

I’ve told the story before, but it bears repeating in the context of the 2024 Democratic National Convention. I attended the 2008 convention in 2008 and it was a pretty ecstatic atmosphere. The Democrats were about to nominate their first Black candidate for president and his very close primary competitor, Hillary Clinton was the first woman to make a serious run for it. There had been plenty of bad blood during the primary and there were still some raw feelings that needed to be dealt with before the full celebration could begin. It was up to Clinton to heal the breach and it wasn’t going to be easy.

On the night Hillary was to give her big endorsement speech, I stood next to a group of young Black women who were clearly skeptical of her and were big fans of Barack Obama. They were not expecting much. But her speech was exceptional and by the end of it the women I was watching with were cheering right along with her supporters whom she had thanked profusely but also pointedly asked, “we’re you in it for me or were you in it for the country?” She wound it up by exhorting everyone to put their efforts into electing Barack Obama saying:

This is the story of America. Of women and men who defy the odds and never give up. How do we give this country back to them? By following the example of a brave New Yorker, a woman who risked her life to shepherd slaves along the Underground Railroad.

And on that path to freedom, Harriett Tubman had one piece of advice. If you hear the dogs, keep going. If you see the torches in the woods, keep going.If they’re shouting after you, keep going. Don’t ever stop. Keep going. If you want a taste of freedom, keep going. Even in the darkest of moments, ordinary Americans have found the faith to keep going.

At the time she gave that speech it was unclear if she would ever run for office again and it has been forgotten over the years, replaced by that other convention speech when she accepted the nomination and then her stunned concession speech when Donald Trump won the electoral college vote. But I remembered it on Monday night because she evoked those words again, saying that she wished her mother and Kamala Harris’s mother could see them now because they would tell them to “keep going” for the sake of all the people in the country who are depending on them.

But Clinton is no longer running herself. She’s passed the baton to Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee who may be the one to finally break through what Clinton calls the “highest, hardest glass ceiling.” She, like Joe Biden, has done her part and is leaving it to the next generation to carry on the task.

It was good to see her received with such respect and admiration by the delegates at the convention. I was a bit surprised to be honest. But she deserved it having absorbed so much misogyny and inexplicable resentment for decades on behalf of women everywhere, even often from members of her own party. When the crowd started chanting “lock him up” when Clinton mentioned Trump’s felony convictions and she smiled beatifically the crowd roared — she had earned that. .” (Of course, there were still a few who couldn’t even give her that.)

Kamala Harris is a seasoned politician but she doesn’t carry the baggage that Hillary Clinton carried with her from the years of being dragged by the right wing. Nonetheless, Trump is pulling the same nonsense with her, calling her “weak” and “low IQ” and suggesting that she’s ill equipped to deal with foreign leaders because she doesn’t have the “strength” to stand up to them. Coming from the man who practically gave Vladimir Putin a full-body massage on international TV, that’s pretty rich, but it doesn’t stop him from doing it. So far, it doesn’t seem to have stuck and perhaps that’s because many people can see his sexism more clearly now that it’s obvious he just flings it at any woman who dares to oppose him.

It was interesting that the convention scheduled another strong woman politician just before Clinton’s speech, Alexandria Ocasio Cortes, D-NY, who similarly brought the house down with a rousing speech extolling the virtues of working people. She pointed out that the Republicans are always taunting her to go back to being a bartender as she was six years ago and she said she’d be happy to because “there’s nothing wrong with working for a living.” Her speech compared to Bernie Sanders’ on the second night, speaking of the same issues in a completely different (and fresher) voice, indicates that the populist torch has been successfully passed too. She is formidable and the reception she received from the crowd shows that her message is now part of the mainstream of the Democratic coalition.

There were a number of other talented women featured on night one, such as the feisty Texas Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett (“Kamala Harris has a resume; he has a rap sheet”) who seemed to be channeling an earlier Texas political superstar Gov. Ann Richards who was also known for her twinkling eyes and rapier wit. Richards’ legacy is safe with Crockett. And Michigan also gives us an up and coming political star in the dynamic Mallory McMorrow, the state senator who went viral with a stirring speech about abortion rights last year. She was tasked with explaining Project 2025 which she did with appropriate disdain and humor.

And then there’s Kamala Harris herself who suddenly radiates confidence and gravitas even as her wide smile and casual body language reveals a person who is comfortable in her own skin. And she seems to be loving it which is possibly the most appealing thing about her.

One of the networks interviewed some women delegates who were quite emotional over Hillary Clinton’s appearance, the feeling bittersweet at seeing her in that spot when by all rights she should have been coming to the end of her second term and passing the torch to her successor. But after the crushing defeat of 2016, they had done what Hillary did after 2008 — they just kept going. And now they are thrilled at the prospect of a Kamala Harris presidency.

The Democratic Party is a party full of extremely talented, smart, ambitious women at every level and it’s no longer a novelty. What just a few years ago seemed like a treacherous attempt to make a great leap forward finally feels like normal. The party and the country are going to be much better off for it.

Time For A Drop In Interest Rates

Published by digby on August 21, 2024

It’s overdue

A big revision from the BLS today:

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday revised down its estimate of total employment in March 2024 by a whopping 818,000, the largest such downgrade in 15 years. That effectively means there were 818,000 fewer job gains than first believed from April 2023 through March 2024.

So, instead of adding a robust average of 242,000 jobs a month during that 12-month period, the nation gained a still solid 174,000 jobs monthly, according to the latest estimate.

The revision is based on the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, which draws from state unemployment insurance records that reflect actual payrolls, while the prior estimates come from monthly surveys. However, the estimate is preliminary and a final figure will be released early next year.

These numbers might not be exactly right, however:

Some economists, however, are questioning the fresh figures. Goldman Sachs said the revision was likely overstated by as much as 400,000 to 600,000 because unemployment insurance records don’t include unauthorized immigrants, who have contributed dramatically to job growth the past couple of years.

Based on estimates before Wednesday’s revisions, about 1 million jobs, or a third of those added last year, likely went to newly arrived immigrants, most of who entered the country illegally, RBC Capital Markets estimates.

Also, the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages itself has been revised up every quarter since 2019 by an average of 100,000, Goldman says. In other words, Wednesday’s downward revision could turn out to be notably smaller when the final figures are published early next year.

This may actually be good news:

The significantly cooler labor market depicted by the revisions could affect the thinking of Federal Reserve officials as they weigh when – and by how much – to lower interest rates now that inflation is easing. Many economists expect the Fed to reduce rates by a quarter percentage point next month, though some anticipated a half-point cut following a report early this month that showed just 114,000 job gains in July.

Wednesday’s revisions underscore that the labor market could have been softening for a much longer period than previously thought.

The fed needs to lower interest rates and they need to make it substantial. This might just spur them to do it.

Trump, of course, is turning it into a scandal:

Whatever. Numbers are revised all the time and were when he was president too. Fox will help him but the only people who will believe it are the die-hards.

Meanwhile…

Published by digby on August 20, 2024

THE moment

Published by digby on August 20, 2024

The NY Times reported:

Two other women shared their stories as well and the whole segment was incredibly moving:

Against a black background on the convention stage in Chicago, Amanda Zurawski and her husband, Josh Zurawski, described how she nearly died after going into premature labor at 18 weeks of pregnancy. Doctors at a hospital in Texas, which has a near-total abortion ban, sent her home, deeming her not sick enough to qualify for an abortion under the law’s exception for life-threatening emergencies.

“Every time I share our story, my heart breaks,” Ms. Zurawski said. “For the baby girl we wanted desperately. For the doctors and nurses who couldn’t help me deliver her safely. For Josh, who feared he would lose me, too. But I was lucky. I lived. So I’ll continue sharing our story, standing with women and families across the country.”

Kaitlyn Joshua told of being in the middle of a miscarriage and being old to go hom by two different hospitals because they feared being held liable for an unauthorized abortion in Louisiana. Hadley Duvall, in the video above,brought gasps from the audience when she said:

Ms. Duvall, looking directly into the television cameras, quoted former President Donald J. Trump’s description of states’ passing abortion bans as a “beautiful thing” and asked, “What is so beautiful about a child having to carry her parent’s child?”

The Democrats, women and men alike, are running on this issue as they should. Women across the country are energized and motivated to vote against the monster who facilitated the destruction of their right to own their bodies and access necessary health care. These real stories are powerful.

Election Fun

Published by digby on August 20, 2024

Yes there is such a thing

Probably my favorite part of the election season is stuff like this.

Here’s one for Trump from 2016:

Biden Goodbye

Published by digby on August 20, 2024

I’ll confess that I got a little teary last night at the ovations for Biden. It was nice to see him get a little love from the party. His accomplishments have gone largely unappreciated by the public and his decision to withdraw from the race had to be incredibly difficult. He deserves all the appreciation we can give him for all of it.

David Leonhardt had an interesting piece today about Biden’s legacy. And he defined him perfectly as a man who travelled his whole career in the mainstream of the party, whether more right or left as the party felt the times required.

But Biden has not simply gone with the Democratic flow. Over his more than 50 years in politics, he has periodically shown strong opinions about how his party should change — and helped it do so.

Biden has always understood the class resentments that many Americans feel. (If you haven’t read Robert Draper’s profile of Biden for The Times Magazine, I recommend it, including the section in which Biden analyzes George W. Bush.)

Biden’s political career began in 1972, when he defeated an incumbent Republican senator in Delaware even as Richard Nixon won a landslide. Biden ran as a subtly different kind of Democrat, with a more working-class image than the party’s presidential nominee that year, George McGovern. Biden simultaneously distanced himself from the liberal fervor of the 1960s and portrayed himself as an economic populist. He criticized both draft dodgers and “millionaires who don’t pay any taxes at all.”

Five decades later, Biden became the most populist Democratic president in modern times. This positioning wasn’t just about his background, either. Populism has recently gained a new appeal, thanks to the failure of the market-based economic policies of the past half-century — which are often known as neoliberalism — to deliver broad-based prosperity.

Instead of focusing on trade deals, Biden tried to build up American manufacturing. He joined a picket line with autoworkers and appointed labor-friendly regulators. He gave Medicare the power to negotiate drug prices. He cracked down on “junk fees.” He tried to end decades of gentle antitrust regulation.

Biden devoted much of his speech last night to this agenda. He claimed to have rebuilt “the backbone of the middle class.” He said, “We finally beat big Pharma,” and “Wall Street didn’t build America, the middle class built America.” When the crowd chanted, “Union Joe,” he replied, “I agree. I’m proud.”

These economic policies are largely popular even though Biden is not. If the Democratic Party’s shift away from neoliberalism — toward what I’ve called neopopulism — continues, Biden’s presidency will be a major reason. And Harris’s initial economic proposals suggest that much of the shift will continue if she wins.

I don’t know how I feel about this particular branding but I do agree with the analysis

Biden’s signature line about foreign policy is that the world is witnessing a struggle between democracy and autocracy. You can quibble with the details, but his basic point is correct.

U.S. allies are mostly democracies — including Western Europe, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, India, Australia, Mexico and Canada. The countries that treat the U.S. as an enemy are autocracies — China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. Increasingly, these autocracies are collaborating with one another.

Biden has defined the United States as the leading player in an alliance to combat autocracy. “Who can lead the world other than the United States of America?” he asked last night.

As president, he confronted China economically and promised to defend Taiwan. He rallied a pro-Ukraine coalition after Russia invaded. He withdrew from Afghanistan — chaotically — partly because of its limited strategic importance. He abandoned his initial reluctance to work with Saudi Arabia, an autocratic ally, and embraced it as a counterweight to Iran. He continued to embrace Israel for similar reasons, despite the death and destruction in Gaza.

Biden’s foreign policy is based on the idea that the world has entered a new cold war (even if he rejects the term). And Harris? Her campaign has said little about foreign policy or her worldview. Maybe that will start to change in Chicago this week.

I don’t see it as “a new cold war” either. It’s just a recognition of the growing global fascist movement which requires the United States as the world’s only super power to use its influence to rally the democracies around the world to oppose it. The worst thing in the world would be to put our heads in the sand.

Right now we are fighting our own internal fascist threat and even if he loses in November I don’t think the demise of Trump will end it. The GOP is infected with it. But the worldwide threat is real and must be dealt with.

The conservative writer JV Last at The Bulwark had a more sentimental take, but I agree with that as well:

I hope you drank it in last night. It was one of the most human moments I’ve ever seen in politics, from the second the president stepped on stage and embraced his daughter.

But it was more than that. It was America saying goodbye to this ordinary man who has become an extraordinary president. A president who saved our democracy.

This is one of those cases where the transcript doesn’t give you enough context. You need the video. You need to see Biden’s face and feel the vibrations from the crowd. And you absolutely need to watch his final section, when he transitions from a campaign speech to a valediction.

This is the story of a nation grateful to a president not just for his accomplishments, but for his sacrifice. For his ability to understand that he was dispensable.

It was this extraordinary willingness, when American democracy was threatened from within, that made Joe Biden the indispensable man.

I know I’ve said this before but I want to say it again: Biden is our greatest living president.

There’s more but I thought this was particularly on point:

Over and over Biden tried to make space on the right for a Republican party independent of fascist overtones.

That Republican voters affirmatively chose another run with Trump is no fault of Biden’s. He did everything he could. But his big domestic project failed because the base fact is that a political party can only be as healthy as its voters let it be.

And these days the GOP is a party where voters wear t-shirts bragging about how their nominee wants to be a “dictator.”

Faced with this failure and the resurgence of the authoritarian movement, Biden saved our democracy again—this time by walking away from power. When he realized that he could not win the battle a second time, Biden anointed Kamala Harris—shutting down any contest and giving her the space to establish herself as a force.

He was too old to campaign effectively in 2024 but his age and experience served him well in this time of great peril with Donald Trump directing the GOP from his Mar-a-Lago White House in exile.

We were lucky to have him.

Seems Like Big News To Me

Published by digby on August 20, 2024

But what do I know?

Judy Woodruff reports that as the administration is trying hard to get a cease fire and hostage release in Gaza, Donald Trump is on the phone exhorting his buddy Netanyahu not to do it.

How can this be ok? More importantly how have we come to the point where it’s just a passing comment instead of front page news?

I realize that the Logan Act is pretty much a joke. And there are certainly previous examples of Republicans doing this for political gain during an election (I’m looking at you Nixon and Reagan.) But it’s still not right, especially now what with Trump being a convicted criminal and a fascist and all. The media should never treat this as normal but they especially shouldn’t be doing it now.

I’m Proud As Punch

Published by digby on August 20, 2024

You may be wondering where Tom Sullivan is today. Well, as he has vaguely mentioned, much more humbly than he should have, he’s in Chicago as a delegate to the DNC this week. That’s him above with rising star Anderson Clayton the chair of the North Carolina Democratic Party. Tom recognized Clayton as a singular talent some time ago and worked to help elect her to the post.

North Carolina may very well be in play this election. At the very least Clarton and Sullivan are going to make Trump fight for it. I couldn’t feel more privileged than to have Tom writing here every day for all these years. He’s out there getting done.

What Did Fox Viewers See?

Published by digby on August 20, 2024

Not everything, that’s for sure.

Matthew Sheffield watched Fox News’ coverage of the DNC last night and found that they censored the Black politicians except for Kamala Harris’ brief remarks. Seriously. They did not show the speeches by Karen Bass, Laphonza Butler, James Clyburn, Jasmine Crockett, or Raphael Warnock. They also didn’t show the speech by Sean Fein, which says everything:

The crowd erupted into “Trump’s a scab” chants repeatedly. I can only imagine how much that irritated him.

The Fox audience might have learned something if the network had shown it — which is why they didn’t, of course. The oligarchs and greedheads which run the right wing media universe must keep the rubes in the dark if they hope to maintain power.

As for the Black officials, I wouldn’t expect anything else. Seeing all those exceptional, decent, highly accomplished Black Democrats would disorient many of their racist viewers and they might even change the channel. Can’t have that.

The Coalition

Published by digby on August 20, 2024

Saving the country from Donald Trump is the most important job the Democratic Party has ever had. Without that nothing else will matter. They (we) came through in 2018 to take the House and end the trifecta. In 2020 we kicked him out of the White House. In 2022 we stopped the Red Wave. The Party hung together throughout all the chaos and attempted destruction. I couldn’t be more surprised.

And now it is more united than I’ve ever seen it to put an end to his reign in the GOP once and for all. The Democrats shouldn’t have to do it. The Republicans have abdicated their responsibility to purge him themselves. But that’s how it is, and it means that the GOP itself is infected and will have to be dealt with over time. But job one is to stop Trump. What’s shocking is that it’s so hard to do because so many of our fellow Americans worship the man.

Brian Beutler has a nice analysis of the situation on the morning after night one of the DNC:

Early in Donald Trump’s presidency—perhaps as early as one day after his inauguration, when millions of protesters flooded streets around the world—it became clear that the anti-Trump opposition was the largest and most powerful coalition in American politics. 

Anyone without a factional ax to grind should’ve been able to see it, too. We’d had enough time even by then to examine the results of the election. We understood the basic nature and advantages of Trump’s minoritarian coalition; we knew he’d assembled an electoral college majority while losing the popular vote after a campaign marked by criminal sabotage of his opponent and myriad institutional failures in his favor. We knew Trump wasn’t just unpopular, but that almost everyone who disapproved of him strongly disapproved of him. 

Hillary Clinton probably would’ve won despite her baggage and missteps, and the unique obstacles she faced, if the anti-Trump majority hadn’t been too complacent about his chances of winning. But it was simple to see, even back then, that Democrats lost a winnable race. Anyone who “wins” a two-person race with 46 percent of the vote is no colossus. The anti-Trump opposition was big and broad enough to beat him time and again if it could be assembled. Clinton just happened to be the wrong leader to assemble it. 

We watched this theory bear out repeatedly over the next six years as the anti-Trump coalition aligned in 2018, 2020, and 2022 to defeat Trump and his biggest enablers: MAGA candidates and swing-state Republicans alike. It was such a dependable formula that it almost lulled Democrats back into a false sense of inevitability.

The waning days of Joe Biden’s aborted re-election campaign were a reminder that, while big enough to defeat Trump in election after election, the anti-Trump coalition still has to be held together and mobilized. A Democratic Party that didn’t seem mission driven to beat Trump could shatter the resistance, allowing Trump to sneak into power once again.

Kamala Harris, or whoever had succeeded Biden atop the Democratic ticket, could’ve squandered this energy just the same. A leader with too much baggage, or too mired in factional infighting, might be losing just as Clinton lost, and as Biden was on track to lose.

Instead, Harris is rebuilding the Democratic Party purposefully to hold that winning coalition together. She’s doing an exceptionally good job. 

She’s great and so is Walz. Joe Biden is a good man who did the right thing for the country. The elected officials past and present are all there, doing what’s necessary. But I think the resistance, aka the anti-Trump coalition, should get a pat on the back as well.

There are many ways this coalition could have shattered but even through the dark days of worrying about Biden’s public performance and the doldrums, it really didn’t. Most people said they would vote for anyone over Donald Trump. Now they don’t have to — they can vote enthusiastically for a ticket they believe will beat him once and for all. As Beutler says, it was “purpose built” to do that.