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Digby's Hullabaloo Posts

The Coalition

Saving the country from Donald Trump is the most important job the Democratic Party has ever had. Without that nothing else will matter. They (we) came through in 2018 to take the House and end the trifecta. In 2020 we kicked him out of the White House. In 2022 we stopped the Red Wave. The Party hung together throughout all the chaos and attempted destruction. I couldn’t be more surprised.

And now it is more united than I’ve ever seen it to put an end to his reign in the GOP once and for all. The Democrats shouldn’t have to do it. The Republicans have abdicated their responsibility to purge him themselves. But that’s how it is, and it means that the GOP itself is infected and will have to be dealt with over time. But job one is to stop Trump. What’s shocking is that it’s so hard to do because so many of our fellow Americans worship the man.

Brian Beutler has a nice analysis of the situation on the morning after night one of the DNC:

Early in Donald Trump’s presidency—perhaps as early as one day after his inauguration, when millions of protesters flooded streets around the world—it became clear that the anti-Trump opposition was the largest and most powerful coalition in American politics. 

Anyone without a factional ax to grind should’ve been able to see it, too. We’d had enough time even by then to examine the results of the election. We understood the basic nature and advantages of Trump’s minoritarian coalition; we knew he’d assembled an electoral college majority while losing the popular vote after a campaign marked by criminal sabotage of his opponent and myriad institutional failures in his favor. We knew Trump wasn’t just unpopular, but that almost everyone who disapproved of him strongly disapproved of him. 

Hillary Clinton probably would’ve won despite her baggage and missteps, and the unique obstacles she faced, if the anti-Trump majority hadn’t been too complacent about his chances of winning. But it was simple to see, even back then, that Democrats lost a winnable race. Anyone who “wins” a two-person race with 46 percent of the vote is no colossus. The anti-Trump opposition was big and broad enough to beat him time and again if it could be assembled. Clinton just happened to be the wrong leader to assemble it. 

We watched this theory bear out repeatedly over the next six years as the anti-Trump coalition aligned in 2018, 2020, and 2022 to defeat Trump and his biggest enablers: MAGA candidates and swing-state Republicans alike. It was such a dependable formula that it almost lulled Democrats back into a false sense of inevitability.

The waning days of Joe Biden’s aborted re-election campaign were a reminder that, while big enough to defeat Trump in election after election, the anti-Trump coalition still has to be held together and mobilized. A Democratic Party that didn’t seem mission driven to beat Trump could shatter the resistance, allowing Trump to sneak into power once again.

Kamala Harris, or whoever had succeeded Biden atop the Democratic ticket, could’ve squandered this energy just the same. A leader with too much baggage, or too mired in factional infighting, might be losing just as Clinton lost, and as Biden was on track to lose.

Instead, Harris is rebuilding the Democratic Party purposefully to hold that winning coalition together. She’s doing an exceptionally good job. 

She’s great and so is Walz. Joe Biden is a good man who did the right thing for the country. The elected officials past and present are all there, doing what’s necessary. But I think the resistance, aka the anti-Trump coalition, should get a pat on the back as well.

There are many ways this coalition could have shattered but even through the dark days of worrying about Biden’s public performance and the doldrums, it really didn’t. Most people said they would vote for anyone over Donald Trump. Now they don’t have to — they can vote enthusiastically for a ticket they believe will beat him once and for all. As Beutler says, it was “purpose built” to do that.

Whiz Weird?

I can’t believe he did it:

Noooooo!

In case you don’t remember:

Back in 2004 during the presidential campaign, George Bush ordered his cheese steak “Whiz wit,” while John Kerry asked for his with Swiss cheese, a misstep that solidified Kerry’s effete reputation and made him the subject of ridicule across Philadelphia.

Vance is supposed to be the salt o’ the earth guy…

A $28,000 Fact Check

“Did you know the Kamala price hikes have cost the average American family $28,000?”

— Donald Trumpin a TikTok video, Aug. 15

Cut through the 2024 election noise. Get The Campaign Moment newsletter.

“As a result of Kamala’s inflation price hikes, they’ve cost the typical household a total of $28,000. These are numbers coming from the government. They are not coming from me.”

— Trump, media event in Bedminster, N.J., Aug. 15

Former president Donald Trump rarely updates his political rhetoric — he’s using many of the same lines against Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 that he used against Joe Biden in 2020 — so it’s always news when a fresh talking point emerges.

In recent days, Trump has claimed that the “average American family” or the “typical household” has suffered a hike in spending of $28,000 under the Biden presidency.

Nobody knows where he got that amount and the campaign isn’t saying.

They previously fact-checked a Kevin McCarthy claim that “families have lost the equivalent of $7,400 worth of income” which came from a Heritage Foundation research fellow named E.J. Antoni. It was a bogus number that made littyle sense to economists.

Now, just 16 months later, as inflation is easing, Trump suddenly touts a figure almost four times McCarthy’s number. Trump claimed these were “government numbers,” but economists we contacted scratched their heads about where this could have come from.

One economist suggested that Trump might have been taking total personal consumer expenditures and dividing by total households. But that doesn’t exactly match $28,000, and personal consumer expenditures includes items (stuff the government buys for people like health care,for example) that would exaggerate the impact.

In any case, the experts said Trump is ignoring income gains that have accompanied the rise in prices, putting the finances of many Americans in the net positive territory.

Moody’s economist Mark Zandi, for instance, provided a spreadsheet of data on real personal income less transfer payments from the government per capita. “It has increased 4.2 percent between January 2021 and June 2024,” he said in an email. “A little more than one percent per annum. A solid performance.”

They eventually found the number in a blog post by the same Heritage fellow which doesn’t really add up either. And honestly, I’m pretty sure Trump just pulled that out of his hair helmet. It’s not like he cares about providing any back-up.

And in any case, it’s the opposite of reality:

Oddly, when Bankrate.com conducted this same survey in 2023, Americans said they needed $233,000 a year to be financially secure. So in one year, the surveys indicated a $47,000 improvement — perhaps a sign that as inflation eased, Americans felt less stressed about their finances. A representative for Bankrate.com did not respond to a request for comment.

Ya think?

There Are No “Policies”

The election is only about principals, values and morals. You either have them or you don’t.

The press keeps yammering about Trump policies and Harris policies and “the economy” and “immigration: as if that’s what it’s about.

This guy knows what it’s about:

Retired federal appeals court Judge J. Michael Luttig, a prominent conservative legal scholar put on the bench by President George H.W. Bush, is endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris over former President Donald Trump, whose candidacy he describes as an existential threat to American democracy

It will be the first time Luttig, a veteran of two Republican administrations, has voted for a Democrat.

“In the presidential election of 2024 there is only one political party and one candidate for the presidency that can claim the mantle of defender and protector of America’s Democracy, the Constitution, and the Rule of Law,” Luttig wrote in a statement obtained exclusively by CNN. “As a result, I will unhesitatingly vote for the Democratic Party’s candidate for the Presidency of the United States, Vice President of the United States, Kamala Harris.”

“In voting for Vice President Harris, I assume that her public policy views are vastly different from my own,” Luttig writes, “but I am indifferent in this election as to her policy views on any issues other than America’s Democracy, the Constitution, and the Rule of Law, as I believe all Americans should be.”

I probably disagree with this man on virtually everything when it comes to “policies” too. But he is a level headed person of integrity who believes in democracy and the rule of law. There used to be a lot more conservatives like him but I guess they all died.

You can read his entire statement here.

The Big Lie To The Big Steal

Rachel Maddow has an oped in the NY Times today bringing her historical knowledge to this scheme that’s percolating in the swing states run by Republicans about decertifying the vote. She reminds us that back in the very close 1960 election some fringe wingnuts floated the idea of refusing to certify the results in certain states in order to give Nixon the electoral college victory over Kennedy. At the time, it wasn’t even considered but, as we know, times have changed.

She observes the most recent activity in Georgia which gives local election boards the power to challenged and overturn a valid election. And it gets more troubling every day:

On Monday, the board is expected to consider yet another revision to the rules that would afford members of county election boards an additional option for delaying or refusing certification. The rule would allow local board members to demand “all election-related documentation” before certifying the results.

Imagine an election night this November in which the two parties are trading swing-state victories. The Democrats capture Nevada, while the Republicans take Arizona. The Republicans win the big prize of Pennsylvania, while the Democrats top them in Wisconsin and Michigan. The nation is waiting on Georgia. If Georgia goes red, it’s President Trump; if Georgia goes blue, it’s President Harris.

Then, local news headlines start to circulate. There are reports of unspecified “problems” in the vote in Fulton County. And in Gwinnett County. And in DeKalb, Coffee and Spalding Counties. Republican officials are refusing to certify the results in their counties. They say they are making “reasonable inquiries.”

As legal challenges wend through the courts, a wave of disinformation, confusion and propaganda swells, fueled by unproven claims that something is amiss in these Georgia counties, and also by similar noise — and possibly also certification refusals — in Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Mexico and Nevada. (All have seen local Republicans try the certification refusal ruse since 2020.)

She points out that the states only have until December 11 to send official certify results to Washington but notes that nobody knows what will happen if they don’t:

The point of these certification refusals may not be to falsify or flip a result, but simply to prevent the emergence of one. If one or more states fail to produce official results, blocking any candidate from reaching 270 electoral votes, the 12th Amendment prescribes Gerald L.K. Smith’s dream scenario: a vote in the newly elected House of Representatives to determine the presidency. Each state delegation would get one vote; today, Republicans control 26 state delegations; Democrats control 22; and two are evenly divided.

Our democratic system is not invincible, but it is strong. Certification of election results is a ministerial responsibility that is not discretionary. Legitimate election challenges are handled with recounts and litigation, not by individual election board members. There is no loophole that allows bad-faith officials to so flummox the electoral system that they take the choice of the next president away from the American people.

But in the past three and a half years, the ad hoc certification ploys that failed to flip the last presidential election to Mr. Trump have been professionalized and systematized by Republican officials and their allies. A recent report in The Times quoted an official with the conservative Heritage Foundation saying that “the conditions” in the country are now such that “most reasonable policymakers and officials cannot in good conscience certify an election.” Michael Whatley, the chairman of the Republican National Committee, has declined to answer when asked if the party intends to try to block vote certifications.

I sure wish the race could open up a bit and provide a large enough margin that this wouldn’t be a possibility. But if the swing states are as close as they have been we’re going to have a fight.

There was a time when a big popular vote win would allay these fears simply because both parties believed in democracy and in a case where the electoral college was tight the loser would easily concede knowing that the will of the voters across the country had chosen their opponent. Republicans have made it clear that they don’t care about the spirit or the letter of elections law. If they can game the system, they will do it. lt worked in 2000 and might have worked in 2021 if they could have gotten Mike Pence on board. Of course they will do it again.

The GOP’s Investigation Fetish

We all remember the endless Republican Benghazi investigations which former Speaker Kevin McCarthy admitted were done to damage her poll numbers in advance of the presidential election. Now they’ve released an “impeachment report” accusing Joe Biden of corruption on the day of the Democratic convention.

House Republicans on Monday formally made the case for impeaching President Biden, releasing a lengthy report accusing him of corruption and seeking to allow his family to profit off his office in connection with foreign business deals made by his son Hunter, who has been charged with felony tax crimes.

In the 291-page document, released on the day that Democrats gather in Chicago to begin their party convention, Republicans call Mr. Biden’s conduct “egregious” and say he should be impeached for abuse of power and obstruction. But the report contains no proof that Mr. Biden, when he was vice president, engaged in any corrupt quid pro quo to benefit his son’s business partners, and Republicans admit they have no direct evidence that he ordered any interference into a Justice Department investigation into Hunter Biden.

“An abuse of power may also be present even if, as some claim, the Biden family was only selling the ‘illusion’ of influence and access,” the report says, adding: “It is not necessary for the House of Representatives to show that the dealings involved a quid pro quo to rise to the level of an impeachable offense.”

The Bidens and several of their business associates have repeatedly denied that Mr. Biden was involved in his son’s businesses, despite the efforts of some business partners to cut him into deals after he left the vice presidency. “I did not involve my father in my business, not while I was a practicing lawyer, not in my investments or transactions, domestic or international, not as a board member and not as an artist, never,” Hunter Biden said in the opening statement of his deposition to the committees in February.

Still, Republicans assert that they do not need to prove that Mr. Biden personally profited from his son’s business deals, accepted a bribe or otherwise committed a crime because, they argue in part, Democrats lowered the threshold for impeachment with their pursuit of President Donald J. Trump in 2019.

They don’t even try to hide the fact that they do these things solely for political purposes. They don’t have the votes to impeach and they know it’s BS, particularly in the face of the massive corruption by Trump and his progeny, before, during and after his term in office. Just last week we found out that Egypt paid him $10 million for favors, and he delivered. (Read this whole thread to see just how blatantly corrupt he was. It is shocking.)

But just because they can’t please their Dear Leader by actually impeaching Biden as payback, that doesn’t mean they plan to stop doing this. They’ve already launched new investigations into Harris and Walz — and even some of their own people are wishing they’d lay off:

House Republicans have unleashed a barrage of investigations targeting Harris and Walz in the run-up to the Democratic convention.

One House Republican, speaking on the condition of anonymity to critique their party’s investigations, said the probes are “unnecessary.””We have an election to win. Don’t make these people martyrs,” the lawmaker told Axios. Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) argued that investigating Harris and Walz is “fair” but that investigators need to be sure to “handle it professionally.”

House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) on Friday launched a probe into Walz, the governor of Minnesota, over his ties to China. Comer has also been investigating Harris for her role as the Biden administration’s point person on the sources of migration to the U.S.

It’s not just the Oversight Committee: Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.), the chair of the House Armed Services subcommittee on military personnel, is investigating Walz for how he represented his record in the Army National Guard.

[…]

Banks told Axios: “If they don’t like scrutiny, they shouldn’t apply for the job.”

They also say that because Harris didn’t run in the primary she hasn’t been properly vetted. Except she is the Vice President of the United States. But making sense is not part of their mandate.

It will never stop with these people.They’ve been doing this since the 90s and they won’t stop. Ever since Richard Nixon was run out of office in 1974 they’ve been seeking an eye for an eye and just haven’t been able to get it done. Even Bill Clinton just gained in popularity when they impeached him. But they aren’t going to give up. After all these years, it’s pretty much all they know how to do.

Self-Soothing With Conspiracy Theories

This is what Trump is feeding his cult members these days:

Tim Miller quipped: 

This “Ironic” parody Trump bleated begins as a melancholy elegy for the campaign that he thought he was winning before transitioning into some comfort conspiracies to make him feel better about the current campaign he is losing. Sad!

I don’t think it’s sad. It’s alarming. He posted stuff like that dozens of times yesterday in a flurry of crazy tweets that went on for hours. This decompensating weirdo is within the margin of error. He could be leading this country again six months from now.

All About Pennsylvania

Kamala Harris at a Pennsylvania firehouse on Sunday

All the attention is going to be on the Democratic Convention in Chicago this week but it’s pretty clear that for the next few weeks the center of gravity in American politics is going to be in Pennsylvania. All the strategists and political pundits tell us that both the Harris and the Trump campaigns see it as a must win and according to the latest polls it’s a tight race there. Already both candidates and their running mates have held events, with no doubt many more to come.

I recently spent some time in southern Pennsylvania as I often do visiting friends in the late summer and was struck by the fact that unlike 2016 and 2020 there were far fewer Trump signs out in the rural areas. For years they had kept their tattered big blue Trump flags flying even long after the elections but this year they seem to be few and far between. Sure there were some yards covered with signs and trucks festooned with bumper stickers but it’s much rarer than it’s been. What that means, I can’t say definitively but something has changed and it’s fair to guess it has something to do with enthusiasm. It felt as though some of the air has gone out of the Trump balloon.( I’m not the only one who sees that.)

Judging from his rally over the weekend in Wilkes-Barre, Pa., the hardcore cultists are still there for him but they’re getting weirder by the day. Some even showed up carrying semen specimen cups with JD Vance’s picture on them with the words “JD Vance family kit” apparently as some kind of mockery of Tim and Gwen Walz’s IVF struggles. But that was only slightly weirder than Trump’s rally speech which featured some of his most unhinged commentary yet.

Less than four minutes into his speech he went into a long diatribe about Harris’s TIME Magazine cover which he claimed without evidence was drawn by an artist when the pictures they took were unusable (implying she looked too ugly.) He said the image looked Sophia Loren or Elizabeth Taylor and went on to complain about a column by the Wall St Journal columnist Peggy Noonan who had written that Harris had an advantage in the race because she is a beautiful woman.

This evidently made him very jealous because he believes he is a much better looking person than she is:

Trump values his own TIME Magazine covers almost as much as his “ratings” so seeing her on one apparently triggered him in some primal way.

Republicans have been telling every reporter who will take their dictation (on background, of course) that Trump needs to talk more about policy and stop his personal attacks on his opponent. They say that the race is his to lose but only if he delves deeply into the policy details that Trump voters are supposedly dying to hear about.

Have they met Donald Trump? Have they met his voters? Anyone who believes that didn’t hear his ecstatic followers cheering when he proclaimed that he’s much better looking than Kamala Harris.

Donald Trump doesn’t do “policy” unless by policy you mean that he incessantly lies and rambles incoherently. For example about the economy, whether it’s his own record which he mischaracterizes as the most successful the world has ever known or the current administration which he likewise mischaracterizes as the worst. When asked recently what he would do about high housing costs, Trump bizarrely answered “drill, baby, drill.” But then “drill, baby, drill” tax cuts for the wealthy and tariffs are really his only “policy” prescription. And even after being president for four years he’s still monumentally ignorant about them:

Trump is not going to change. He’s made that clear, telling reporters last week, “I have to do it my way.” Nobody puts Trumpie in the corner.

On Sunday, Kamala Harris and her husband Doug Elmhoff along with Gov. Tim Walz and his wife Gwen went on a bus tour of western Pennsylvania where they stopped in at a campaign phone banking operation, bought some snacks at a Sheetz convenience store, got food at a local restaurant and went to a high school football practice. Contrary to popular myth, Harris was happy to take questions from the accompanying press on issues both shallow and substantive.

A new Washington Post/ABC/Ipsos poll has Harris is ahead of Trump by 49% to 45% among registered voters and 51% to 45% among likely voters which is a substantial improvement over Biden’s numbers from a month ago. Nonetheless, when asked about it at one of the stops on the bus tour, she wisely said,  “I very much consider us the underdog. We have a lot of work to do to earn the vote of the American people. That’s why we’re on this bus tour today.” Those numbers may look promising but they’re just one poll with others showing a tighter margin.

More importantly, Harris was also asked about the Child Tax credit at one of the stops and she was ready with a serious, informed response (and it wasn’t “drill, baby, drill.”)

Walz, in turn, gave a rousing “Friday Night Lights” speech at the football practice at the famous Aliquippa High School which has turned out many NFL legends. (Former Pittsburgh Steeler Hall of Famer Jerome Bettis even joined them on the bus tour.)

Walz is a gifted politician:

Kamala Harris isn’t bad herself:

Harris and Walz flew out to Chicago last night with Harris scheduled to appear tomorrow night at the convention when Joe Biden symbolically passes the torch to her. On Tuesday, she and Walz will travel to Milwaukee Wisconsin for a rally at the Fiserv Forum, the same venue where the RNC took place in July and on Wednesday and Thursday Walz and Harris will accept their nominations at the DNC.

Trump meanwhile will be trying to counter-program the convention with rallies in various swing states and his campaign will be holding press conferences at the Trump property in Chicago on a daily basis. Unfortunately for them, the DNC is already using that venue for its own messaging:

The Harris/Walz ticket has the momentum, creativity and palpable excitement on their side. Whether that’s enough to overcome Trump’s inexplicable hold on the Republican party after eight years of his now very tired old schtick is unknown. If they get a post convention bump, according to Politico’s polling expert, “candidates who end the conventions on the upswing typically see that momentum continue through to Election Day.” So, if the stars align and there is no external catastrophe, the Democrats might deliver that historic victory we all thought we were getting back in 2016, and our long Trumpian nightmare may finally be over.

Salon

Evangelicals for Harris

John Brody of CBN tweeted this:

EXCLUSIVE: Evangelicals For Harris Use ‘False Prophet ‘ Bible Passage in Provocative New Ad Against Trump 

Evangelicals For Harris is releasing their second media spot in as many weeks, this time using biblical text in 1 John 4 that mentions false prophets and how Christians are to, “test the spirits to see if they are from God.” The implication and context are pretty clear: they want Evangelicals to ask themselves if Trump fits the characteristics of a false prophet. Watch it below.

This ad is no doubt going to ruffle some conservative evangelical feathers. Those who support Trump see him as someone promoting biblical values when it comes to policy. They’ll also mightily argue that it’s actually the Christian Left that is spreading a false presentation of the biblical message.

However, Evangelicals For Harris wants Christian voters to question what they believe is a rhetoric that lacks “Christian Witness” and is fully void of the, “Love Thy Neighbor” Biblical Commandment.

It’s crucial to remember here that Evangelicals For Harris is not trying to pick off the Trump hardcore evangelical faithful. That’s not the game. Let me tell you what is. I’ll break down some numbers for you so you see this more clearly.

According to Pew Research, among Trump’s base of White Evangelical Protestant Voters, 37 percent see him as a “GREAT” president; 37% say he’s been a “GOOD” one. But here’s the key: 9 percent considered him just AVERAGE; 6 percent said he was a POOR president and 10 percent said TERRIBLE. Totaled together, that’s 25 percent of Conservative Evangelicals who are relatively swingable/majorly lukewarm at best.

If Kamala Harris wins 20 percent or more of these skeptical evangelicals, she’ll win. That’s what history tells us. Just ask Joe Biden who did it and Hillary Clinton who didn’t.

I would hope there are some Evangelical Christians who can see that Trump is a blasphemous phony but they have certainly laid low these past few years. It’s good to know that some are stepping up.

Herding “(Childless Cat Ladies’) Cats”

Scrambling before showtime

Politico has two pre-DNC convention stories worth examining.

The first by past convention planners provides a back-stage look at the frenetic preparations for a convention that is at once a four-day infomercial for the Democratic nominee for president, and a last-minute scramble to re-write the script for a convention planned around a different candidate. How to make it must-see TV when everyone knows the outcome? It’s “like herding (childless cat ladies’) cats“:

That’s why at this convention, you will see at least one “must-cover” speaker each night: President Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton on Monday, President Barack Obama on Tuesday, President Bill Clinton and Governor Tim Walz on Wednesday, and Vice President Kamala Harris on Thursday.

Even with big names, a Democrat supporting a Democrat isn’t newsworthy, but much like a 1970s sitcom, extra-special guests are — especially Republicans supporting Democrats.

This is why conventions have tried to highlight unlikely supporters or allies. If it’s rare to have a union president show up for the Republicans (as Teamsters President Sean O’Brien did this summer), it’s also rare to have a CEO show up for Democrats, which is what happened when Costco CEO Jim Sinegal spoke in 2012. Mike Bloomberg vouched for Hillary Clinton in 2016, and Republican Governor and EPA Administrator Christine Todd Whitman spoke as part of a group of Republican women in support of Biden at the 2020 Democratic Convention, as did Ohio Gov. John Kasich.

Who will be the unlikely guest star for Democrats this year? Liz Cheney? Paul Ryan? Adam Kinzinger? We’ll have to wait and see.

Then there are the expected Israel-Gaza protests in Chicago. Once Joe Biden was no longer the Democratic candidate, protest groups had to reconsider whether to go easier on Vice President Kamala Harris. She’s “seen by some as being more sympathetic to the pro-Palestinian cause and made a forceful case for a cease-fire deal after meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netantyahu.” But protesters already prepared to show up will show out:

“We all came to a consensus that it’s not going to make a difference, that [Harris] represents this administration,” said Hatem Abudayyeh, chair of the U.S. Palestinian Community Network. “We’re going to stay full steam ahead.”

[…]

There are at least six major protests planned on the streets of Chicago during the Democratic National Convention. The biggest is planned for the first day, Monday, when “tens of thousands” are expected to march just blocks from the United Center, where Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, will give their acceptance speeches.

The “family-friendly march” is organized under a pro-Palestinian umbrella coalition that includes groups devoted to a variety of causes. Organizers are busing in protesters from Michigan, Minnesota, Indiana and Wisconsin, and activists are also coming in from New York and California, too.

Stay tuned. And tune in.

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