Change Agents

by digby

All this handwringing amongst the cognoscenti about the barbarians at the gates ruining everything for the Democratic party (again) and what do I find in my mailbox but this strategy memo from insider Dem establishment polling outfit, Democracy Corps run by none other than Carville and Stan Greenberg. And lo and behold, here’s what they have to say:

The Democrats need to catch up with the country, which wants to vote for outsiders, is demanding change and ready to respond to the Democrats’ message and definition of the election. All things considered, this is not a bad problem to have, but it requires a new intensity and focus to grab ahold of the forces for change and take the Democrats to a new level.

Change dynamic one: The Iraq war. This is the biggest voting issue for Democrats (and independents and change voters). While voters are divided on policy issues(like timetable for withdrawal), the continuing attention to the war increases dissatisfaction and elevates the change vote.

This means that it is not a loser to run against the war. It has always been self-evident to me, but for some reason the Democratic leadership and the punditocrisy can’t seem to grasp this. Indeed, this Lamont challenge may just help other candidates around the country because it shows that the Democratic party is serious about challenging the Republican “stay the course” policy.

Change dynamic two: Washington is working for big corporations and the privileged, not the people or the country. There is an abiding sense that things are out of balance in Washington, with political leaders working for the big corporate interests and the privileged, rather than trying to have America work for everyone. This is the top reason (along with rising costs) for wanting to change the Republican Congress.

Change dynamic three: They’re not taking care of America. Across a whole range of issues – Iraq, Katrina, the borders and immigration, and trade and manufacturing – voters think the political leaders are failing to step up and take care of America. This is why the House Republicans are trying to keep immigration focused on the borders.

Change dynamic four: This economy brings you high gas and health care costs and financial pressure for the middle class. Because the elites, journalists and the Republicans think this is a strong economy, the campaign thus far has neglected the great frustration with rising costs and financial pressures – for many groups, the top reasons to change the Congress.

Change dynamic five: They’ve bankrupted the country. There is a sense of foreboding in the country that this Republican government has bankrupted the country, run up the deficits and passed on our debts and obligations to future generations. They have made a mess of things financially and hurt the country. This is one of the top worries about any future Congress, and one of the key things voters want to put a halt to.

Now all that’s really funny to me because it is pretty much exactly the constellation of issues the netroots have been plugging for months now. As it turns out we aren’t a bunch of out of touch retreads who have no sense of what the silent majority really wants — it turns out we are the ones in tune with the zeitgeist. All these Lieberman defenders of the status quo are the ones who are failing to make the sale to the American people because they don’t have a fucking clue what the American people are looking for.

The Republicans are trying to deny Democrats the voters they need. Understand that those undecided and dislodged voters do respond to these conservative issues, yet these are the voters Democrats need to raise their vote. They have not closed the deal because the image of the Democrats has not improved over the last year and the number of Democratic identifiers has not risen.

Thus, Democrats must do better in identifying with the forces for change and making them matter in the election. If they do that, they will consolidate their vote, win over the undecided, increase turnout and demoralize the Republicans. But Democrats must also act aggressively to confound and undermine the efficacy of the conservative issues, thus allowing these voters to vote for change. That combination can take the Democrats to a dramatic level.

I would suggest that the whining about the horrible hippie horde that is challenging poor old Joe Lieberman might not be the best way to do this.

There’s a lot in the memo that’s quite interesting, but I’m going to highlight this because it’s an argument I’ve been howling about for months now, and have been increasingly demoralized because it seems Democrats are running as fast as they can from it:

The increased attention to Iraq, even when Republicans control the debate, hurts them when people decide their congressional vote. The country is divided on setting a deadline (50 to 49 percent) and we win an actual exchange on the issue by just 4 points (50 to 46 percent).

However, when we include accountability in the message – “exercise oversight and push for a new direction, not more of the same” rather than a deadline – Democrats’ advantage doubles to 8 points. More importantly, when we promise to send investigative committees to find the missing money, investigate the lack of armor and no-bid contracts, the lead nearly doubles again to 14 points (55 to 41 percent).

For some reason the Democratic leadership is convinced that if they run explicitly on accountability — on any subject — they will be seen as sourpusses and nobody wants to vote for a downer who will spend a bunch of time and money trying to sort out the atrocities of the last few years. This is clearly not the case. People are frustrated but they have no reason to believe that the Democrats will do anything about this situation in Washington. Why should they?

Up to now, I’ve only been going on instinct, but I have always felt that they will not get the turnout they need unless they make an explict case for why the Democrats will be able to make a difference if they win this election. I simply can’t see how they can do that without running on accountability. People know that Bush will be in for two more years, so any hope of enacting a positive agenda is impossible. He’d love to use that rusty veto pen of his. This is a referendum on the Republicans and we should run against them, hard.

I think war profiteering is a surefire winner. People know this has been a windfall for corporations and this is an excellent way to consolidate the Republican culture of corruption and the dissatisfaction with the war(the two most important issues according to this poll) under one umbrella. I think people are becoming outraged — they just don’t see that the Democrats will do anything about it. (I would also like to see a Democratic majority judiciary committee look into the abuse of presidential powers — hold some hearings, air this thing out in public. For the good of the country…)

In fairness, there is a bunch of stuff in the strategy memo about “reasurring” voters that we are against gay marriage, raising taxes on the middle class, sex and violence on TV and precipitously withdrawing from Iraq. The usual boilerplate defensive moves. They claim that these issues are salient with seniors and blue collar workers and must be finessed. I would think that these are the kinds of issues that each candiate needs to take into consideration depending on the make up of his or her constituency. The national party line should be 100% offense.

The good news is that we aren’t nuts. The people really are looking for change. We in the netroots and the grassroots are agitating for that change — and change is painful for entrenched interests so they are fighting us all the way. That’s ok. It’s the way it works. We will just keep hammering this and hope that candidates are listening to their potential constituents and that the establishment is reading the polls.

Last night on CBS the analysis was that “the left” is pulling the Democrats away from the mainstream and the Republicans would win going away because the “moderates” would be scared off. That analysis is wrong. These numbers quite clearly show that the grassroots of the Democratic party are not pulling the party away from the mainstream, they are pulling it toward it. This isn’t about left vs right. It’s about change vs. status quo.

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