A throwdown between oracles
by digby
Is there some reason anyone should care whether one election forecasting model is superior to the other? I don’t see how these models that aggregate polls to predict whether one party or the other will have a majority are anything more than a parlor game.(Or maybe a way for Vegas gamblers to lay odds…)
They’re fun. I enjoy them because I’m a political junkie. But this “fight” between two of the top forecasters seems rather insubstantial to me. After all, political pros rely on their own polling in individual races to determine strategy — these aggregate poll models really have no bearing on anything as far as I know. If they didn’t do what they’re doing — however accurate they might be — and disappeared from the scene tomorrow, would it make a difference?
But hey, maybe I’m missing something about the importance of these forecasts. It certainly seems to have the political establishment up in arms.