Oh heck, you mean people are actually concerned about Trump after all?
by digby
By a whopping 25-point margin, voters say they’re more likely to back a congressional candidate who promises to serve as a check on President Donald Trump, according to a new national poll from NBC News and the Wall Street Journal.
And by a similar margin, they say they’re less likely to vote for someone who has supported the president on most issues.
At the same time, six-in-10 are satisfied with the U.S. economy, and a plurality of voters give Trump credit for the economic improvement.
Despite that economic optimism, however, the poll shows that Democrats enjoy a 10-point advantage on congressional preference, with 50 percent of registered voters wanting a Democratic-controlled Congress, versus 40 percent who want a GOP-controlled one.
Democrats held a 7-point edge on this question back in April, 47 percent to 40 percent.
What’s more, Democrats are more enthusiastic about the upcoming midterms, with 63 percent of them registering either a “9” or “10” on a 10-point scale of interest, while just 47 percent of Republicans signal the same level of enthusiasm.
And 48 percent of voters indicate they’re more likely to support a congressional candidate who promises to provide a check on President Trump, compared with 23 percent who say they’re less likely to support such a candidate.
By contrast, a majority — 53 percent — say they’re less likely to vote for a candidate who supports the president on most issues.
The margins are even more pronounced among voters living in competitive states and congressional districts, with more than 50 percent of them signaling their support for a candidate who serves as a check on Trump.
“The polling data points to a repudiation of Donald Trump and to the benefit of Democrats,” says Democratic pollster Fred Yang, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. “I think this is becoming a traditional midterm where the party controlling the White House is going to lose seats.”
Then there’s this:
Check out these numbers: In the merged NBC/WSJ polling of 2017, white women with college degrees preferred a Dem-controlled Congress by 17 points (55 percent to 38 percent). In the merged NBC/WSJ polling from January to April, it was 26 points (60 percent to 34 percent). And in this latest poll, the margin is now 30 points (60 percent to 30 percent).
By contrast, men without college degrees have become more GOP – from R+26 in 2017 (58 percent to 32 percent) to R+37 now (64 percent to 27 percent).
(I understand such women are known as the “middle aged hysterics of the Resistance” in certain left-wing circles. Still, it’s probably a plus for the Democratic party to have more people in the coalition even if they are unpleasant to have around. There are a lot of them.)
Meanwhile, Trump’s approval rating has ticked up to 44%, but it’s because the deplorable base loves him more than ever:
Trump’s support is deeper with key Trump/GOP groups, but it’s not broader, especially when it comes to support for his own party.
For instance, Trump’s job rating inched up among Trump voters, Republicans, rural voters and whites. But on the generic ballot, groups that have been opposed to Trump — white women, whites with college degrees and African Americans — have become more pro-Democrat.
In other words, Trump’s base loves him more than ever. But that base love isn’t translating to better midterm prospects for the GOP.
This was interesting too and I think it reflects that Trump true hardcore base remains at about 5%. (The rest are just happy the economy is rolling and don’t want to rock the boat even if the president of the United States is a racist moron who may be being blackmailed by a foreign power because the only thing in the world that matter to them is money.)
Finally, 37 percent of voters say that — based on what they’ve seen, read or heard — Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign did collude or work secretly with Russia, while 34 percent disagree; 28 percent didn’t know enough to say.
Those findings are essentially unchanged from the December 2017 NBC/WSJ poll.
Additionally, a combined 53 percent of voters say they either had “some” or a “great deal” of confidence in special counsel Robert Mueller conducting a fair and impartial investigation, versus a combined 40 percent who have little to no confidence.
And 46 percent believe that Mueller’s investigation should continue, while 36 percent think it should be ended.
I keep seeing doom and gloom for the Democrats because they aren’t “offering a positive vision” but I’m going to guess that the most positive vision anyone could offer right now would be that the opposition party would act as a check on this miscreant. That would the best news in the world.
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