Did Trump have an important partner in pressuring Ukraine?
by digby
I had not been aware of this until recently, but Vladimir Putin and Viktor Orban held a joint press conference in february of 2017, right after Trump took office and Putin had this (among other things) to say about Ukrain and the American election:
Vladimir Putin: With regard to the current flare-up, we stated that it is already happening. Our position is, in fact, known: it was provoked by the Ukrainian side. Actual fighting began last Friday. On Sunday, the so-called Ukrainian voluntary units captured an opposition stronghold and moved 200 metres into the territory controlled by the militias. On Sunday, they were driven out of there.
Why is this happening now? I believe there are several reasons for that. First, the Ukrainian leadership needs money, and the best way to drum up some money is to go to the European Union, individual countries of Europe, the United States, or international financial institutions, posing as a victim of aggression. This is my first point.
Second, as we all know, during the presidential campaign in the United States, the Ukrainian government adopted a unilateral position in favour of one candidate. More than that, certain oligarchs, certainly with the approval of the political leadership, funded this candidate, or female candidate, to be more precise. Now they need to improve relations with the current administration, and using a conflict to do so is always a better, easier way to draw the incumbent administration into addressing Ukrainian problems and thus establish a dialogue.
The third reason is related to domestic politics. In the wake of the utter failure of economic and social policies, the internal opposition has stepped up its activities and needs to be shut up. It is also necessary to rally the people around the current leaders. This issue can also be resolved more easily if the conflict resumes.
There really is no doubt about who started this particular conflict. But whatever.
As David Frump pointed out on twitter today:
One more thing. We treat Trump’s escalating pressure on Zelensky to accuse Biden – and Russia’s escalating violence vs Ukraine – as two unconnected events. But if Russia knew Trump was pressuring Zelensky (thanks eg to Sondland’s unsecured calls) then maybe events were connected
I keep wondering whether by escalating its violence vs Ukraine in August and September 2019, Russia was doing its part to pressure Zelensky to help Trump win re-election in 2020.
We know that Putin believes that “escalating the conflict” is a useful political tool. He blamed Ukraine for doing it in the past.
One thing we can be sure of — this has been discussed between Trump and Putin. The only question really is whether Putin was just playing Trump or whether they are co-conspirators. We may never know. And I’m not sure it matters.
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