Ron Brownstein says that whether Trump comes out politically on top in this national security crisis depends upon whether people see what he did as impulsive or decisive. He points out that “decisive” vs “deliberative” has long been the way president of the two are described with Reagan and the Bushes portraying themselves as decisive while the Democrats like Carter, Clinton and Obama see themselves as deliberative. How you value those two things probably governs for whom you prefer to vote.
These assessments have “pluses and minuses for both parties,” Rosner says. “Whether it is a plus or a minus tends to depend heavily, fundamentally, about how a particular operation or issue comes out. National security is the most unideological issue in the realm of public affairs. The only ideological [impulse] the public has is they like things that work.”
For that reason, Feaver thinks Trump is in a more exposed political position than his Democratic critics over Soleimani’s death. Most Democrats, he notes, have not definitively said they would have rejected the strike; they have only accused Trump of approving it without fully considering the potential costs. That leaves them enormous flexibility, he notes, to second-guess Trump if events warrant.
While the attack has not yet prompted retaliatory violence from Iran or its proxies, it has already produced diplomatic disruption, including Iran’s announcement that it was withdrawing further from its international agreement to limit its nuclear program, and the vote by Iraq’s Parliament to demand the withdrawal of American troops from the country. Trump has responded with counter-threats to bomb Iran, including cultural sites protected under international law, if the country strikes American interests and to impose sanctions on Iraq if it evicts US forces. Though not yet producing military confrontation, this immediate cycle of action and response underscores how quickly tensions can escalate beyond the complete control of either side.
He adds, “the Democrats have an easier play here. The ‘decisiveness’ of the President only wins politically if there are no unintended consequences, and I don’t even think the Trump team believes that they are going to get away with this with no unintended consequences. There will be blowback, and whatever the blowback is will take the bloom off this rose.”
His rose is already wilted and diseased. He’s clearly wagging the dog and being egged on by a handful of fanatics who’ve been wanting a war with Iran for decades. He gave the go-ahead at a moment of high personal stress, which we could all see right there on his twitter feed, and now we’re stuck with the consequences. It was neither deliberative nor decisive.
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