Money can’t buy happiness, the saying goes, but it can buy popular support. Billionaire former New York City mayor Mike Bloomberg has spent $300 million of his own money to inject himself into the race for the Democratic nomination for president. He’s already working to double that while skipping early primary states.
Ron Brownstein concludes at The Atlantic, “So far, none of the candidates has built a coalition that reaches broadly across the party. Instead, each is confined to a distinct niche of support that is too narrow to establish a commanding advantage in the race.” Bloomberg is using his vast wealth to bypass all that.
Polling and anecdotes suggest (if my Twitter exchange from Monday is any indication) Democrats are casting about for someone, anyone, who can beat Donald Trump in the fall. And they are “not very ideological” about it.
Data from Advertising Analytics shows Bloomberg pouring money into the 14 Super Tuesday states, with 35% of that spent in California, New York, Texas and Florida. Nearly half has gone into Super Tuesday and Rust Belt states, Axios reports.
If you find horse race election coverage annoying (as I do), please indulge me a moment.
A new poll from Quinnipiac has Sen. Bernie Sanders atop the Democratic pack at 25% support among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independent voters. Former Vice President Joe Biden’s support has slid 9 points to 17% since his fourth-place finish in the Iowa caucuses. Bloomberg’s money (if not Bloomberg himself) is nipping at Biden’s heels at 15%. Sen. Elizabeth Warren is at 14%.
Moreover, Bloomberg is eroding Biden’s national support among black voters:
While Biden is still holding onto his lead among black voters, according to the poll, his support has plummeted from 49 percent before the caucuses to 27 percent. Bloomberg, meanwhile, has rocketed into second place among black voters, with 22 percent support compared to 7 percent late last month.
It is not clear how many black voters outside New York City know of Bloomberg’s stop-and-frisk policy that landed most heavily on minority neighborhoods. They will.
But the problem with campaign spending is it tends to follow a hyperbolic curve. Getting to 15% in the polling (with no votes yet cast for him) has already cost Bloomberg $300 million. He might finance an expedition to Mars with what it could cost to get to 50 percent+1 in actual votes. Money can buy lots of advertising and favorable polling, but can it buy turnout?
Fortune reports (signup required):
If the historic voter turnout during the U.S. midterm elections is any indication, the 2020 presidential election could potentially draw a record number of young people to the polls, including the 18- to 23-year-old Generation Z, many of whom will be casting ballots for the first time.
Together, Gen Z and millennials (ages 24 to 39) are projected to make up 37% of voters in the 2020 presidential election, according to the Pew Research Center, and both demographics are largely split along party lines.
Despite the press flutter over the 79% jump in voter turnout among 18- to 29-year-olds in 2018, the question is 79% starting from what? The answer is: Not very much. That jump took turnout among Gen Z voters to 36%. Average turnout nationwide in 2018 was 53%.
The good news is voters under 40 represent the greatest potential for increasing voter turnout in 2020, as I note with regularity (see the graph). If Gen Z and millennials outvote their elders, they can run this joint.
James Lance Taylor, former political science department chair at the University of San Francisco, tells Fortune younger voters are more focused on issues. The Trump presidency could have a “radicalizing effect” on them:
“I think, more than anyone, Bernie speaks to issues that directly affect young people: minimum wage, student debt forgiveness, universal health care, and concerns about the environment, issues he’s been consistent with,” says Taylor, who teaches college students. “He’s nothing but a ‘New Deal Democrat,’ a centrist who attracts new voters and those really learning about politics for the first time.”
“There’s something about Sanders’ appeal that’s still a bit of a mystery,” says Carl Cannon, a longtime D.C. insider, and the Washington bureau chief for polling aggregation site RealClearPolitics. “Somehow, he’s caught lightning in a bottle with young folks, and it still seems to be working,” Cannon says.
But counting on Gen Z and millennials to save the country (and the planet) from oldsters who vote reliably is still a risky bet. Having an oligarch like Bloomberg overtake Sanders and alienate them could put Democrats’ November prospects at risk. Having Sanders atop the ticket could alienate the suburban women who delivered the House to Democrats in 2018. So far, none of the Democrats has achieved what Brownstein calls “critical mass” for breaking out.
The stress of it will have all of us breaking out.
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