For a few weeks now, Republican-affiliated Faith and Power PAC has run ads in North Carolina promoting Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate Erica Smith as “the only proven progressive” who can unseat Sen. Thom Tillis in November. Smith has disavowed the interference in the campaign even as Rev. Dr. William Barber II criticized the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee for endorsing former, one-term state senator Cal Cunningham. Smith is a black aerospace engineer and minister serving in the state senate since 2015. Cunningham left office in 2003 and served as a JAG officer in Iraq.
It is the DSCC’s second try with Cunningham. They supported him over popular NC Secretary of State Elaine Marshall in the 2010 primary. When Marshall defeated their preference in the primary, the DSCC left her hanging in the breeze without a nickel. She lost to incumbent Richard Burr. The DSCC got behind Cunningham again months ago.
Politico reported Monday on the Faith and Power ads:
“It’s so brazen and obvious. … They recognize that Cunningham is a strong candidate, and they’re worried about holding on to that seat,” said Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.). “When Republicans are weighing in for somebody, they’ve made the judgment that they’re worried about Cal, and they’re not worried about her.”
Or else they are more worried about Thom Tillis’s weakness. He is ranked one of the most vulnerable Republicans running for reelection in 2020.
Politico again:
The public polling in the race is scarce, though Democrats believe months of heavy spending laid the groundwork for Cunningham to prevail. VoteVets, a group that supports Democratic veterans and endorsed Cunningham’s campaign, has spent $6 million between its super PAC and an affiliated nonprofit on positive ads for his candidacy. Cunningham has spent six figures on TV, and his campaign is also running TV ads with coordinated spending from the DSCC. Most of those efforts were underway before the apparent intervention from Republicans, but the spending has increased in the past week.
Smith’s weakness is her fundraising. Cunningham is well-connected to the Democrats’ fundraising network. A friend in New York City received an invitation to a Cunningham fundraiser there last September. He has raised over $3 million. Smith has raised a bit over $200k.
But the New Republic’s Alex Pareene cite’s political scientist Rachel Bitecofer’s belief that “elections are won not by persuading swing-voting independents but by turning out the greatest number of people already inclined to support your side.” Per Bitecofer’s theory, this “should prompt parties to back candidates who generate enthusiasm among those who might otherwise sit home or cast a protest vote, not moderates who might be able to persuade independent voters to switch parties.”
A black woman near the top of North Carolina Democrats’ fall ticket would better fit that profile. But the DSCC prefers its candidates white, male, centrist, compliant, and with an ability to pass the “Rolodex” test. Pareene opines that Cunningham “honestly just looks like the kind of guy who would lose a North Carolina Senate race to a vulnerable Republican.”
Pareene concludes:
If it’s true that everyone is wrong about “candidate quality,” Democrats are posing the wrong questions. It’s more important to ask what a candidate would do once elected than it is to ask how he or she would get elected. And instead of bemoaning the GOP’s dirty tricks, liberals should encourage Republicans to make even more duplicitous primary interventions on behalf of “unelectable” candidates.
Smith has a compelling personal story. She grew up on a farm in eastern North Carolina, went on to become a mechanical engineer and worked for Boeing. Smith has the dynamic, preacher-like speaking style she picked up along with her divinity degree.
Cunningham’s stump speech is boiler plate that tastes like cardboard. If anything, he appears more wooden than in 2010. The Vote Vets ads tout the Bronze Star (for serving in a combat zone) this former JAG attorney has been running on since 2010.
During that 2010 primary, Cunningham told me the DSCC said his Bronze Star would trump anything the right wing could throw at him. My first thought was, “And you believed them?” My second was, “Does John Kerry ring a bell?”
The scant polls have shown Smith with a slight edge over Cunningham. But as so often in politics, viability comes down to the ability to raise money. For that, Cunningham wins a gold star. On March 3, he may win a nomination.
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