“If conservatives become convinced that they can not win democratically, they will not abandon conservatism. The will reject democracy.”
— David Frum, The Atlantic, January 2018
“Do [Republicans] value democracy in America enough to allow a real election to go through and to allow themselves to lose?” The Atlantic’s Anne Applebaum posed to “Morning Joe” on Thursday. She’s doubtful the party leadership does. David Frum of that almost 30 months ago.
Earlier this week, CIA analysts told the Washington Post they see “disturbingly familiar” patterns in actions taken by the White House against protesters. If this were a foreign country, their reports to superiors would be warnings:
The scenes have been disturbingly familiar to CIA analysts accustomed to monitoring scenes of societal unraveling abroad — the massing of protesters, the ensuing crackdowns and the awkwardly staged displays of strength by a leader determined to project authority.
In interviews and posts on social media in recent days, current and former U.S. intelligence officials have expressed dismay at the similarity between events at home and the signs of decline or democratic regression they were trained to detect in other nations
Adding to those worries must be Thursday morning’s further barricading of the White House with another layer of fencing around the complex extending into the green spaces north and south.
Mark Elliot posted two videos contrasting the approach the current White House occupant had to taking a stroll outside the White House grounds with that of President Barack Obama. The green where Obama cheerfully greeted passersby Trump has fenced off.
The New Yorker’s Sue Halpern worries aloud how and whether the election Applebaum speculates Republicans might steal will even take place. Until now, we’ve been able to tell ourselves that if enough voters show up in November, none of Donald Trump’s administrative atrocities will matter. Now, she’s not so sure:
A few weeks ago, when I asked the legal scholar Rick Hasen about a scenario, then circulating, that laid out a “legal” way for the Trump Administration to bypass elections and keep Trump in power, he said it would lead to rioting in the streets. That was before there was rioting in the streets, which has given the Trump Administration an opportunity to mobilize U.S. soldiers to police U.S. citizens, and local governments to deploy militarized police forces that have shown little respect for constitutional rights as they fire rubber bullets, deploy tear gas, and charge and beat peaceful protesters. The spectre of violence in the streets, which horrifies most Americans, appears to energize our self-declared “law-and-order President.” Certainly, it gives cover for greater surveillance and the thwarting of dissent. On Tuesday, as voters went to the polls in eight states and the District of Columbia, with many citizens under curfew orders, we saw a whole new way to keep citizens from voting.
Even if Americans turn out to vote for Democrats in such numbers that strategic curfews, standard GOP voter suppression tactics, or other means of suppressing turnout fail to have a major impact, the acting president’s actions in Washington, D.C. this week have telegraphed how he and his enablers might respond to losing the election in November. And you thought this week was ugly.
But Trump’s poll numbers are falling. A growing chorus of respected retired military generals and admirals has begun raising the alarm about the administration’s authoritarian actions. If the trend continues, Trump’s support could collapse. However, we simply cannot plan around that.
Last Friday, I submitted my application for an absentee ballot. The requirements for submitting the actual ballot in North Carolina now are being amended in Raleigh to adapt to the pandemic. In states like mine, infections are still on the upswing. We don’t have vote-by-mail, and Republican legislators mean to make it a felony for Board of Elections staffers to send an absentee ballot application to any voter who does not formally file a request.
On top of the Trump administration’s actions to sabotage the United States Postal Service, budget cuts mean my mail goes first to South Carolina for sorting before returning here. This makes mailing in a ballot at the last minute risky. So, I dropped off my absentee ballot application into a box at the local Board of Elections. I plan to hand-deliver my ballot or drop it off at an early voting station if I choose not to vote in person. But I have mobility and flexibility others don’t.
We need to “flatten the curve” on how and when people vote this fall. Expand absentee voting as early as practicable to relieve pressure on in-person voting methods. COVID-19 means we expect to have trouble staffing polling places. Expanded use of absentee ballots means reducing lines and the risk of infection for early- and election-day voters. Think of it as a democratic strategic triad.
Mount up. If Trump is still in the White House in November, we will be facing a cornered animal desperate to hold onto power and avoid future prosecution (in NY, at least). Preserving this republic is going to be a fight. Potentially a real, not a metaphorical one. Not kidding. We’d best make it a good and strategic one. You will be the people historians write about.
Perhaps you have friends jaded enough to think the election process is hopelessly broken and corrupt. Perhaps they complain Democrats have not presented them with a silver platter of candidates custom-built to their exacting specifications. Therefore, they refuse to taint their white vinyl souls by participating.
After events in Washington this week, suggest they could be making a deadly mistake.
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For The Win, 3rd Edition is ready for download. Request a copy of my free countywide GOTV mechanics guide at ForTheWin.us. This is what winning looks like.
Note: The pandemic will upend standard field tactics in 2020. If enough promising “improvisations” come my way by June, perhaps I can issue a COVID-19 supplement.