Philip Bump of the Washington post makes an astute observation about the polls:
President Trump spent last week trying his best to convert the power of his office into a shift in presidential polling. The Republican Party presented a parade of people meant to attest to Trump’s effectiveness as president and to intone about the dangers of electing former vice president Joe Biden. It was one of the few remaining times that Trump will be able to command the nation’s attention before voters begin casting ballots in the presidential election.
A Washington Post average of polls conducted immediately before the two conventions had Biden leading Trump 51 percent to 42 percent. With polls released this week after the Republican convention, we can update those numbers.
Biden leads Trump 51 percent to 42 percent.
That things didn’t change much shouldn’t be a surprise. The race has been remarkably static, with Trump’s daily high in FiveThirtyEight’s average of polls never beating Biden’s low. Biden came into the conventions with an unusually large lead, and he comes out of them with one, too.
But why? Why didn’t Trump’s repeated assertions that Biden would doom the nation to collapse work? New polling from CNN and polling partner SSRS offers a hint.
Overall, Biden leads Trump by eight points in CNN’s poll. That differs by demographic group, as you’d expect.
| ALL VOTERS | MEN | WOMEN | DEMS | INDS | REPS | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | Biden +8 | Trump +4 | Biden +20 | Biden +92 | Biden +14 | Trump +88 |
CNN also asked respondents who they thought could best handle a range of issues like the economy or the coronavirus pandemic. Biden held the advantage on nearly every issue. The one exception was the economy, on which the two candidates were essentially even.
| ALL VOTERS | MEN | WOMEN | DEMS | INDS | REPS | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | B+8 | T+4 | B+20 | B+92 | B+14 | T+88 | |
| Economy | T+1 | T+18 | B+14 | B+83 | T+1 | T+93 | |
| Pandemic response | B+12 | T+3 | B+27 | B+94 | B+18 | T+83 | |
| Keep America safe | B+6 | T+9 | B+21 | B+86 | B+14 | T+88 | |
| Address racial inequality | B+18 | T+7 | B+30 | B+94 | B+25 | T+68 |
Now notice what happens when we contrast the numbers above with what Americans are actually worried about. (The figures below reflect the percentage who say they are very or somewhat worried about the issue.)
| ALL VOTERS | MEN | WOMEN | DEMS | INDS | REPS | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State of economy | 58% | 49 | 66 | 80 | 61 | 28 | |
| Pandemic | 60 | 49 | 71 | 89 | 60 | 30 | |
| Risk of crime | 37 | 29 | 45 | 41 | 40 | 27 | |
| Impact of racism | 60 | 49 | 71 | 89 | 60 | 30 |
“Women more than anything else, they want security,” Trump said in a Fox News interview this week. “They want safety. They have to have safety.”
Most women can see that this ignorant, orange, pile of chaos is endangering everyone in the world, not just themselves. (Why more men don’t see this is a sad mystery.) Maybe it’s an instinctual thing, I don’t know.
Women are more worried about crime than other groups — but less so than about the pandemic. And they see Biden as better able to keep America safe by a wide margin.
Trump’s problem, in essence, is that the pandemic continues to be a much larger source of concern for Americans, and Americans continue to see his handling of it as subpar. (Only 40 percent viewed Trump’s handling of the pandemic with approval in CNN’s poll.) What’s more, Trump’s focus on crime has not only failed to overtake concern about the virus, it’s not even particularly effective as an argument.
Anyone with any sense can see that Trump’s handling of the pandemic has been an unmitigated disaster and that the catastrophic state of the economy today is a direct result of that. The whole world is in a state of heightened anxiety and it’s obvious that the president of the United States is not just incapable of handling the crisis, (he’s out there selling snake oil cures and lying about treatments!) he’s deliberately making things worse so he can pretend to be a tough guy by making empty bellicose threats about “law ‘n order.”
He’s responsible for the deaths of tens of thousands of people, is openly trying to sabotage the election and now he’s telling his followers it’s ok to take up arms in the streets. This is what has most of America terrified.
And terror is a big motivator:
Oh, and speaking of enthusiasm? Trump regularly touts the record enthusiasm in his base. In CNN’s poll, that is clear, including that 87 percent of his supporters say there is no way they will change their minds about whom they will vote for.
Among supporters of Biden, the figure is 94 percent