Joe Biden continues to lead the acting president in the polls. A Washington Post-ABC News poll out Saturday confirmed the others, that Biden leads the incumbent by 10 points nationally, both among registered and likely voters. The polling has remained remarkably stable for months. Yet, the pandemic and disastrous response from the White House may be shaping the race in ways pollsters might not see coming.
The Post observes:
A sizable gender gap continues to fuel Biden’s lead, with women making the difference in the current state of the race. Trump has a lead of 55 percent to 42 percent among male likely voters, but Biden has an even larger 65 percent to 34 percent advantage among female likely voters. Trump’s lead among men is about the same as his margin over Hillary Clinton in 2016, but Biden’s lead among women is more than twice as large as Clinton’s was then.
Battleground states tend to be closer, naturally, but this bit of news speaks to voter interest:
Interest in the election has climbed to near-record levels, with nearly 6 in 10 registered voters saying they are following the election “very closely,” higher than any in other presidential election at this time in the cycle dating back to 2000.
The number who say they are certain to vote also appears to be marginally higher than in previous elections. At present, 89 percent of registered voters say they are certain to vote between now and Election Day, Nov. 3, up from 83 percent at this point in 2016. A bare majority (52 percent) of registered voters say they will vote either by mail or early, with 45 percent saying they plan to vote on Election Day.
Even while enthusiasm for their candidate ranks higher for the incumbents boating and caravanning supporters, Biden’s supporters are intensely concerned about the election’s outcome.
Here is something I have not seen before (USA Today):
WASHINGTON — Like thousands of other teenagers, Abhinand Keshamouni’s introduction to working the polls came from watching “The Daily Show.”
Host Trevor Noah ends each episode with a pitch for Power the Polls, a national recruitment network working to ensure there are enough poll workers on Election Day. The message resonated with Keshamouni, a 17-year-old senior from Canton, Michigan, a suburb of Detroit.
He signed up first for the Michigan state primary in August. And he will be back at a polling site Nov. 3, when he will take off a day from his high school that’s conducting classes online. Keshamouni will be among more 1 million poll workers braving a pandemic to ensure people can vote – and he got four of his buddies to do the same.
Katherine Kortum, 36, and a District transportation engineer, plans to do take her 70-year-old father’s place at the polls, even if it is not at his home precinct in Pittsburgh:
Kortum is one of a record number of residents in their 20s and 30s who have signed up to fill jobs vacated by veteran poll workers, officials say, addressing an urgent need for the upcoming presidential election no one could have anticipated a year ago.
In the Washington region, like across the country, poll workers have typically been older residents who vote at higher numbers and tend to be more civically engaged than their younger peers. This year, however, the threat of the coronavirus caused thousands of these seasoned election judges to drop out. When officials scrambled for replacements, young volunteers came in droves.
Election officials in Milwaukee, Detroit, Philadelphia, Atlanta and Houston are not just confident they can staff polling places. Fueled by people in their 20s and 30s, some have thousands more applications than needed.
The Post continues:
An 18-year-old Black woman in Prince George’s County says she was inspired by the national reckoning on race. A 29-year-old former Marine in Fairfax County wants to ensure confidence in the election results. A 38-year-old Native American woman in D.C. wants voters to see more people of color at the polls than she did growing up in rural Wisconsin.
“They are willing to take on the risk, and it fits the pattern of young people getting more engaged,” said Michael Hanmer, a government and politics professor at the University of Maryland. “One of the things that has started to become more apparent to people at a young age is what is at stake.”
A friend near age in my precinct heard there might be a shortage and called the local Board of Elections to work on Election Day. Here too, the anticipated shortage has disappeared in a flood of civic-mindedness. Okay, maybe urgency.
“There absolutely is a risk. More exposure is bad — we know that,” said Nick Mariani, 24 and signed up for poll work in Montgomery County, Md. “But the election is also a non-question. It’s fundamental to keeping a democracy going.”
These voters are from an age cohort that typically under-performs their elders. When turnout ticked up from 20 percent in 2014 to 36 percent in 2018, it was hailed as significant, but only by comparison to past anemic voting habits. Older voters turn out at nearly twice that rate.
That may change for real this time (The Dispatch, one month ago):
The Knight Foundation just released a revealing new national survey of 4,000 full-time college students currently enrolled in four-year degree programs. The survey confirms that political engagement among Gen Z voters is pervasive and serious. No previous generation of new and recent voters has shown similar commitment to vote and make a political difference in other ways. Although Gen Z voters prefer Democrats to Republicans, they are not firmly and permanently committed to either party, and they reject many partisan orthodoxies. Young voters are eager to change our broken politics, and they are up for grabs. The candidates who attract their favor this November will gain a major advantage, especially in close races.
Young voters are indeed fired up. The Knight data shows that 71 percent of Gen Z college students say they are “absolutely certain” they will vote in the upcoming election, with female students expressing greater certainty than their male counterparts by a margin of 10 points. Democratic identifiers are the most likely to be absolutely certain they will vote (81 percent), followed by Republicans (74 percent) and Independents (63 percent); so large majorities of all outlooks.
Before you shake your head and point out that every election features stories about how the youth turnout could shape the election—and then it doesn’t—the figures today are far higher than what was reported in earlier surveys before previous presidential elections. In 2016, 49 percent of 18–29 year olds stated that they would “definitely” be casting a vote, and in 2012 the figure was 48 percent. The actual turnout? In 2016 it was 43 percent and 41 percent. Moreover, 79 percent of college students today believe that most or all of their close friends will be voting in November—this is greater than the national figure of 71 percent, which again shows that the youthquake is materializing.
Younger voters manning the polls and telling their friends may portend just what these stories imply, and more engagement down the road. I worked the poll as a Democratic judge at 18.
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