Ferdnand Amandi knows how to tease.
Can’t tell if this ABC News/Washington Post poll is the one he means or not:
In the aftermath of his own COVID-19 diagnosis, two-thirds of registered voters say Trump failed to take appropriate precautions against the virus, 62% distrust what he says about it and eight months since its arrival in the United States just 21% say it’s under control.
Also damaging to Trump: 58% disapprove of how he’s handled the pandemic — essentially steady since July — and a new high, 73%, are worried they or an immediate family member might catch the coronavirus (or say it’s already happened). Worry about the virus remains a significant independent predictor of support for Biden over Trump.
This is hardly the first poll to show a double-digit advantage for Joe Biden. Eight others tracked since the end of September by Real Clear Politics show that. But Trump polling even among all men must leave a sick feeling in someone’s future-indictable tummy, even if he still holds an 11-point advantage among white men.
Biden’s support comes from liberals, city-dwellers, minorities, and the more-educated, as you’d expect:
Trump’s, conversely, are Republicans (90 percent), conservatives (84 percent), evangelical white Protestants (79 percent), rural residents (58 percent) and those with no more than a high school diploma (57 percent). Notable here is that Trump loses 9 percent of Republicans to Biden, while Biden loses 4 percent of Democrats to Trump – although it’s that 12-point Biden lead among independents that makes the big difference.
That rural edge will come into play in deciding who controls state legislatures and 2021 redistricting, so support Democrats running in those rural state House and Senate districts.
Early voting of all types typically favors Democrats, but Republicans make up serious ground on Election Day. No early turnout lead is safe. But Americans have cast more than 9 million ballots in the 30 states where that data is available. More than twice as many Democrats than Republicans have voted to date. But as the ABC News/Washington Post suggests, how registered independents break will tell the tale.
What could matter a lot is how Democrats and independents vote in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin which do not allow processing of absentee ballots before Election Day. If you can vote early in person in those states, please do so. Your absentee ballot there will is subject to challenge.
Still, this early vote spread will mean Trump and Republicans will rely on heavy Election-Day turnout if they have any hope of pulling close enough to cheat. A little snow, sleet, or rain in those states on Nov. 3 could ruin their day. And the days that come after.
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