The US is the unique among peer countries in having a 3-crest pandemic (so far).
— Jeremy Konyndyk (@JeremyKonyndyk) October 16, 2020
We are trending upwards now, as is much of Europe – with the key difference that Europe didn't have the summer wave that we did. pic.twitter.com/gvslrIFWa3
US is at 632 deaths per million.
— Jeremy Konyndyk (@JeremyKonyndyk) October 16, 2020
If we'd done as well as Japan (13 per mil), it would have saved 203,000 Americans.
South Korea (8.5 per mil), we'd have saved 204,500 lives. US fatalities would be under 3000.
And at China's reported level, we'd have barely over 1000 deaths.
Here are the hardest-hit Europeans. US per-capita death rate is slightly worse than Italy, marginally better than Spain, UK.
— Jeremy Konyndyk (@JeremyKonyndyk) October 16, 2020
Notably though, bulk of their deaths came at the very beginning, then stabilized. They failed but turned things around. We have just kept on failing. pic.twitter.com/xSQpopCAFE
Next – the better European performers.
— Jeremy Konyndyk (@JeremyKonyndyk) October 16, 2020
France is trending badly now, but if we'd done as well as them to this point, 46,000 fewer Americans would have died.
If we'd matched Europe overall, we'd have saved 94,500 Americans.
If we'd matched Germany, 169,000 fewer deaths. pic.twitter.com/QGqCUj22dK
So don't be distracted. By any reasonable comparison, the US performance in this pandemic has been an utter catastrophe.
— Jeremy Konyndyk (@JeremyKonyndyk) October 16, 2020
We were never likely to do as well as South Korea; but we should at least have been able to match France, Canada, or Germany.
(Quick note on methodology – all calculations take the differences in FT's reported country net fatality-per-million figures and multiply by the US population of 328m in order to estimate the fatality differentials)
— Jeremy Konyndyk (@JeremyKonyndyk) October 16, 2020