This is some good news, actually, and not just for those of us who live here. It’s a model for what might work nationally once we have rational leadership in place:
Walk down memory lane:
California early to act in March, preventing surge of cases that affected many others
Over April/May, CA cases were low
But California had an awful summer surge, especially in SoCal
Cases peaked in late July: over 12,000 cases, 150 deaths / day
But in August, strong leadership from @CHHSAgency Health Secretary Mark Ghaly and @GavinNewsom
What did they do? Huge increases in testing including bringing new capacity online
Created highly customized approach on a county by county level — micro targeting policies
OK — so did it actually work?
Data:
Over past 6 weeks (since labor day), USA outside of California:
cases up 68%,
hospitalizations up 22%
% of tests positives: 5.6% –> 6.6%
California
Cases down 9%
Hospitalizations down 26%
% of test positive 3.5% –> 2.4%
California a big state (40 Million folks)
So this is not about small numbers or a fluke
Its concerted effort to increase testing (up 32% since Labor Day) and smart, county-level policies
California bucking the national trend
Here’s their approach:
https://covid19.ca.gov/safer-economy/
And here’s county level guidance
What do I like here?
Instead of approaching lockdowns as light switch (on or off), CA approach is that of a dimmer switch
And it looks like its working
Obviously we don’t know if it will last but so far, so good
But here’s the bottom line
When so many states struggling
micro-targeting, more testing are smart policies that can avoid big surges
Golden State leading the way
We don’t have to look abroad to see this success story
And we can learn to keep COVID under control
Fin
Originally tweeted by Ashish K. Jha (@ashishkjha) on October 19, 2020.