To overcome the 20 GOP voter suppression tactics I counted here 10 days ago, Democrats have to mount the voting equivalent of a human wave attack. Wikipedia defines that as “an unprotected frontal assault” sweeping away an adversary “with sheer weight and momentum.” Considering the hazards of standing in line for hours to vote during a deadly panic, there likely will be casualties.
The massive early voting numbers being reported suggest a human wave is what we are seeing. Across the country as of this morning, roughly 63 million Americans have voted early, or 133% of total 2016 early voting. One in five did not vote in 2016. That early vote may not benefit Democrats in every state. “The Reidout” Monday night reported that early voting in Texas favors Republicans 54-37 percent. But elsewhere (based on voter registration), the early vote seems to favor Democrats.
The wildcard, of course, is how the “Others” in the tables above will split — voters registered independent or unaffiliated. For reference, two-thirds of unaffiliated voters selected a Democratic ballot in North Carolina’s March 3 primary.
Younger voters trend Democratic.
Harvard’s 2020 Youth Poll reports:
Since the Spring 2020 Harvard Youth Poll conducted in March, former Vice President Joe Biden’s favorability has increased to 56% among likely voters, while the percentage who view him unfavorably remains unchanged (41%). This is an increase compared to our Spring 2020 poll where only 34% of all young adults viewed Biden favorably and 47% who viewed him negatively. The poll also found Biden is viewed favorably by 55% of young Hispanics and unfavorably by 28% of young Hispanics, a significant increase since our Spring 2020 survey which saw his favorability draw even at 38% favorable and 38% unfavorably.
Significantly:
Nearly half (49%) of young black voters plan to cast their ballots on election day, compared to 28% who report they plan to vote by mail. They also have lower levels of confidence that their votes will be counted. Only half (50%) report that they are at least very confident their ballots will be counted, compared to 70% of white non-Hispanic voters.
I’m still looking for turnout data on voters 30-45 for obvious reasons. They are needed to help save democracy too.
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