James Fallows lives in Dr. Fauci’s neighborhood. I love this:
I think that’s nice.
Here’s what the trusted Dr. Fauci had to say and I’m afraid it’s terrifying:
When we spoke to Dr. Anthony Fauci, he told us that what makes this surge different from past waves is the steepness of the curve.
“It’s almost an exponential curve,” he said. “It’s different because when you have an exponential curve up like that, by the time it peaks and then comes ultimately down, the duration of the surge is much longer.”
“I think that December, January and early February are going to be terribly painful months,” Dr. Fauci added.
Epidemiologists dread exponential growth because cases can quickly double, then double again. As the country edges closer to recording 200,000 newly detected infections a day, the numbers could become staggering. And even though a relatively small percentage of coronavirus patients actually die, that will be small comfort with cases in the millions.
“Earlier in the pandemic, it was possible for people to make reasonable plans based on risk levels,” said Apoorva Mandavilli, who covers science for The Times. “But for the next two to three months, no activity is truly safe unless you’re at home with your family.”
If you’re feeling weary about the prospect of a locked-down winter, there are signs — for perhaps the first time in the pandemic — of significantly better times ahead, provided we can get through the next few months.
Asked about what gives him hope, Dr. Fauci cited “the spectacular results of the vaccines.” Now that shots from Pfizer and Moderna are on their way, with Pfizer applying for emergency F.D.A. approval today,“this should be a motivation to double down even more to get us through this until the vaccine comes to the rescue.”
Don’t take the vaccines as an invitation to throw caution to the wind, he said. “It’s kind of like the last soldier to get killed in a war when the war is going to be over soon. You don’t want to be that person.”
The way most people become infected in the U.S. may be shifting. In the summer, a large driver of infections was young people socializing and bringing the virus home to their parents and relatives. Now, family and social gatherings are assuming a much more prominent role, Dr. Fauci said.
“Which is the reason why the Thanksgiving holiday makes me really nervous,” he said.
Dr. Megan Ranney, an emergency physician in Rhode Island, put it this way to our colleague Charlie Warzel, an Opinion writer at large: “I hate to be apocalyptic, but it’ll be the day that will determine our trajectory for the rest of the year.”
Apocalyptic is probably the right word:
More travelers were screened at airport security checkpoints on Sunday than on any day since the pandemic took hold in March, a worrying sign that people flying to visit their families for Thanksgiving could increase the spread of the coronavirus.
A little more than one million people were screened by the Transportation Security Administration on Sunday, according to federal data published on Monday. That number is about half of what it was in 2019, but it represents a big increase from the spring, when less than a half a million people flew on any given day.
I also read that 50+ million people will be travelling by car.
Stay safe everyone. This is just … chilling.