Trump’s former pollster has surveyed Republicans to see whether they want him to run again. He found that they break down into five “tribes.” (I think the better term would be “five families” like the mob, but that’s just me.) Anyway, here’s the write up in the NY Times:
Those “tribes” were identified as “Trump Boosters,” “Die-hard Trumpers,” “Post-Trump G.O.P.,” “Never Trump,” and “Infowars G.O.P.” The latter group, among other things, was described as viewing QAnon conspiracy theories favorably and believing in many of them.
According to the data, some 57 percent of Republicans polled said they would support Mr. Trump in an election again. That’s a strong majority, but nowhere near the job approval that he enjoys among all Republicans polled, which was 88 percent.
Among the groups, according to the survey, there were some distinctions in terms of how they viewed Trump.
The group identified as “Die-hard Trumpers” — supporters of the former president who would back him in a hypothetical primary regardless of who else was running but who don’t believe in QAnon conspiracy theories — comprised 27 percent of the Republican voters surveyed. Another 28 percent comprised the “Trump Boosters,” Republicans who said they approve of how Mr. Trump did his job, but only a slight majority of them support him being the nominee again, and they are more supportive of the Republican Party than Mr. Trump personally.
The “Never Trump” Republicans comprised 15 percent of the Republicans surveyed. Another 20 percent were described as “Post-Trump G.O.P.,” who like Mr. Trump but want to see someone else as the party’s nominee.
The “Infowars G.O.P.” voters, named for the conspiracy-laden news outlet that was founded by Alex Jones, comprised 10 percent of the voters surveyed, far from a majority but a significant enough portion of voters that, in a multicandidate primary, could play a factor. Only 13 percent of all the voters surveyed believed in QAnon conspiracy theories, the poll showed, but 69 percent of the “Infowars G.O.P.” voters backed those theories
This looks as thought Donald Trump could have a run for his money in 2024 if someone can make a good care to the nearly half of the party that isn’t demanding his return to glory. But there is a problem. As you may recall, the GOP system is winner take all. If the field has just a handful of aspirants, as it probably will, he’ll be able to win the same way he won in 2016. More likely, he’ll just chase out everyone but a few Never Trumpers who probably won’t garner much support and will cancel each other out anyway.
No, I think a lot depends upon Trump’s health and his legal status at this point. I can’t imagine he won’t want to run. He is motivated by two things: money and revenge. And both of things are highly dependent now upon his continued involvement in politics. The question really is whether he’ll be able to.