Mr. Death Tax, Republican pollster and focus-group ringmaster Frank Luntz, spoke to Kara Swisher of New York Times’ “Sway” podcast on Thursday. Luntz reads each and every Trump email posted to “From the Desk of Donald J. Trump,” the former president’s new blog, God help him. (Luntz, not Trump.)
After considering Trump’s continued Facebook ban, Luntz discussed the potential impact of Trump’s persistent undermining of faith in elections, a.k.a. the Big Lie. Luntz found that 76 percent of self-identified Republicans believe the election was stolen from Trump. What might it mean for upcoming contests?
It could prevent Republicans from winning back the majorities in both houses in 2022.
“What Donald Trump is saying is actually telling people it’s not worth it to vote,” Luntz said. “Donald Trump single-handedly may cause people not to vote. And he may be the greatest tool in the Democrats’ arsenal to keep control of the House and Senate in 2022. If the Republicans lose the majority in the House, they will lay the blame at the feet of Donald Trump for telling people it’s not worth it to vote. Am I being clear?”
The problem for House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, Luntz says, is “You cannot win with Donald Trump. You cannot win without him.” Lose Trump voters and “Democrats win an overwhelming majority in both institutions.”
Trump would be the “odds-on favorite” to win the Republican nomination in 2024, then be an albatross for Republicans in the fall.
“I would bet on him to be the nominee,” Luntz said. “And I would bet on him losing to whatever Democratic nominee there was.” Because as of now he has lost all the crossover voters he would need to win the presidency again.
Trump is the albatross. Goo goo g’joob.