I have often said that modern Democrats have never really learned the art of losing well, by which I mean winning while losing. I think this is an important tactic in politics since a lot of what they do is foreordained by the numbers they have in the congress and the political incentives of various players. You don’t win everything outright but you can set yourself up for a win by how you lose certain battles along the way.
Today, faced with the obstinacy of Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema (as well as others who are using those two as human shields) the Senate Democratic leadership seems to be deploying that tactic in order to illustrate the GOP’s determination to block everything and create momentum to reform the filibuster:
After a busy beginning to the year—during which Democrats passed a $1.9 trillion COVID relief bill, confirmed Biden’s cabinet, and wrote into law a bipartisan hate crimes measure—liberal lawmakers are finally bracing for impact. With the Senate split 50-50, the longstanding filibuster has become the brick wall standing between Democrats and their top goals.
The next month, then, could be the toughest stretch yet for Democrats. In a letter to senators last week, Schumer said as much, forecasting an “extremely challenging” June that will “test our resolve.”
Schumer seems to be setting up his party for failure for a couple of reasons. Many Democrats believe—or, at least, hope—he is trying to force a gut check for some individual members, like centrist Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV). Demonstrating to Manchin that Democrats can’t succeed while the filibuster persists could produce some momentum toward ending the 60-vote threshold. And, at the very least, Schumer could be giving Democrats a political cudgel to beat Republicans in 2022 and beyond.
Call it The Month of Taking the L—in hopes that those losses eventually turn into wins. Democrats have little choice but to trust the process, even if some big dominoes have to fall in the right direction quickly.
“If any of these lead to the reform or elimination of the filibuster,” Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) told The Daily Beast, “my response is, bring it on.”
Some progressive lawmakers are anxiously welcoming the succession of votes on dead-on-arrival bills as a wake-up call to filibuster holdouts.
“With each vote on lifesaving common-sense legislation that gets shot down because of the filibuster,” said Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-NY), “the American people and the senators themselves who are still holding out hope that filibuster reform is unnecessary will see that it is.”
Meanwhile, liberal activists who have been working over Congress on the filibuster for years sense their best opportunity yet to push the envelope—particularly in the wake of the GOP’s filibuster of a bipartisan push to create an independent commission on the Jan. 6 attack.
“It’s a really, really important step,” said Leah Greenberg, co-founder of the group Indivisible. “Because fundamentally, we need to elevate the understanding of exactly how serious the Republican obstructionism is right now. We need to dramatize it.”
Even if some Democrats can see a filibuster endgame developing, in the short term, there are difficult steps that will require the party to grapple fully with internal differences, not just wail on Republicans. After all, some of the most important bills for Democrats lack 50 votes in the Senate.
Their ability to handle all of this successfully, say lawmakers and advocates, will determine whether they keep the promises they believed they were elected to fulfill—and whether they will keep power after the 2022 midterms.
There’s a lot riding on all of this, of course. And I have no idea if this tactic will move the dial with the centrists. I think everyone has been hoping the whole thing is a kabuki dance and Manchin will eventually lead his little band to sanity. You’d think the January 6th commission would have done the job but apparently, Joe and Kyrsten still aren’t convinced.
In fact, Kyrsten made some insanely fatuous comments about the filibuster yesterday so I’m not all that hopeful:
“I have long been a supporter of the filibuster because it is a tool that protects the democracy of our nation rather than allowing our country to ricochet wildly every two to four years back and forth between policies. When you have a system that’s not working effectively – and I think most would agree the Senate is not exactly a well-oiled machine – the way to fix that is to change your behavior, not to eliminate the rules.”
I’m sure Mitch McConnell, Neil Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett had a good laugh about that. And, in a way, she’s right. If you want to move something in the Senate you merely have to “change your behavior” and simply do whatever Mitch McConnell wants you to do. He makes the rules.
It doesn’t sound like she’s going to switch, but they have to do something or the Democratic majority is over before it starts, at least legislatively. And there is just too much at stake right now to let that happen again. They have to try something.