Some potential good news on the new variant:
The first South African doctor to alert the authorities about patients with the omicron variant has told The Telegraph that the symptoms of the new variant are unusual but mild.
Dr Angelique Coetzee said she was first alerted to the possibility of a new variant when patients in her busy private practice in the capital Pretoria started to come in earlier this month with Covid-19 symptoms that did not make immediate sense.
They included young people of different backgrounds and ethnicities with intense fatigue and a six-year-old child with a very high pulse rate, she said. None suffered from a loss of taste or smell.
“Their symptoms were so different and so mild from those I had treated before,” said Dr Coetzee, a GP for 33 years who chairs the South African Medical Association alongside running her practice.
On November 18, when four family members all tested positive for Covid-19 with complete exhaustion, she informed the country’s vaccine advisory committee.
“We had one very interesting case, a kid, about six years old, with a temperature and a very high pulse rate, and I wondered if I should admit her. But when I followed up two days later, she was so much better,” Dr Coetzee says.
Dr Coetzee, who was briefing other African medical associations on Saturday, made clear her patients were all healthy and she was worried the new variant could still hit older people – with co-morbidities such as diabetes or heart disease – much harder.
“What we have to worry about now is that when older, unvaccinated people are infected with the new variant, and if they are not vaccinated, we are going to see many people with a severe [form of the] disease,” she said.
South African demographics are very different from those in the UK. Only about six per cent of the population are over the age of 65. This means that older individuals who are more vulnerable to the virus may take some time to present.
We know very little and have almost nothing to go on. But if it turns out that Omicron is more easily transmissible but presents with much milder symptoms, it may end up being a good thing.
However, here is a note of caution from one of South Africa’s top scientists:
We know that getting a rapid understanding of disease severity with #Omicron (particularly in vaccinated individuals and re-infections) is absolutely critical, but it’s just too early for reliable data
Observations from clinicians on the ground are always important, and we lean heavily on them, but we need to be cautious about jumping on early reports that all cases with this variant are mild
The resurgence in cases in Gauteng is really very recent, off a low base – here you can see the test positivity rates over the first three weeks of November
WEEKLY TESTING SUMMARY This report summarises national laboratory testing for SARS-CoV-2, the virus causing COVID-19, in South Africa. This report is based on data collected up to 20 November 2021 (week 46 of 2021). Key highlights: In week 46 the testing rate was highest in Gauteng (413 per 100,000 persons) and lowest in Limpopo (58
Most of the early spread was amongst younger people, with outbreaks in universities likely being amplification events. You can see the age patterns in the figures in the excellent weekly🧵from @tomtom_m
So with this, and the time lag for infections to progress to severe disease and hospitalisation, we would only expect to see the impact on hospitalisations in the next few weeks
We have robust surveillance systems in place with @nicd_sa @HealthZA to monitor hospitalisations and to link to PCR and sequencing data, so we are well placed to answer the key questions over the coming days and weeks
Originally tweeted by Richard Lessells (@rjlessells) on November 27, 2021.
Still … fingers crossed.