Just wait
You ain’t seen nothin’ yet heat-wise says a new report on warming trends (Axios):
A new study reveals the emergence of an “extreme heat belt” from Texas to Illinois, where the heat index could reach 125°F at least one day a year by 2053.
The big picture: In just 30 years, climate change will cause the Lower 48 states to be a far hotter and more precarious place to be during the summer.
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- The findings come from a hyperlocal analysis of current and future extreme heat events published Monday by the nonprofit First Street Foundation.
- The new report is unique for examining current and future heat risks down to the property level across the country, and joins similar risk analyses First Street has completed for flooding and wildfires.
- As average temperatures increase due to human-driven greenhouse gas emissions, mainly from the burning of fossil fuels for energy, instances of extreme heat are forecast to escalate.
- This report makes clear where households will be vulnerable to what would now be considered almost unheard-of heat indices, which show how the air feels from the combination of air temperature and relative humidity.
Threat Level: The report, which is based on First Street’s peer reviewed heat model, shows that the number of Americans currently exposed to “extreme heat,” defined as having a maximum heat index of greater than 125°F, is just 8 million.
Reporter Andrew Freedman adds, “The states likely to see the greatest growth in dangerous days are Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri and Florida, First Street’s analysis found.”
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- The counties with the largest changes in dangerous days between 2023 and 2053 are mainly located in Florida, led by the populous areas of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties.
Assuming, of course, by mid-century those areas are not under water or rendered uninhabitable by salt water intrusion into the local aquifers.
What will become of Mar-a-Lago?
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