When abortion rights are on the ballot, abortion rights win
Voters in New York’s Hudson Valley sent a clear messsage in Tuesday’s special election, explains Jill Filipovic for CNN: “when abortion rights are on the ballot, abortion rights win.”
Democrat Pat Ryan defeated Republican Marc Molinaro in the moderate, largely rural 19th Congressional District:
The district is one where Joe Biden just barely squeaked out a win in 2020 — the kind of place where you’d expect voters to swing the other way in the midterms. And yet Ryan won with 52% of the vote, to Molinaro’s 48%, to finish out the term of former Congressman Antonio Delgado, who was elevated to New York’s Lieutenant Governor. (Ryan also won the Democratic primary for New York’s newly-drawn 18th congressional district)
I live in the district, and blue signs for both candidates speckle lawns across several counties. One difference, though, is that signs that read “Vote Paul Ryan for Congress” were often next to pink ones that said “CHOICE IS ON THE BALLOT.”
The issue of choice, perhaps coupled with a massive influx of New York City residents into the Catskills and the Hudson Valley over the past two years who have brought their liberal politics with them, seems to have made the difference for Ryan.
“Choice was on the ballot. Freedom was on the ballot, and tonight choice and freedom won. We voted like our democracy was on the line because it is. We upended everything we thought we knew about politics and did it together,” Ryan said in a statement.
“Ryan made his campaign about fundamental values he believed would win even in this politically-mixed region: abortion rights, sensible gun policy and safeguarding democracy,” Filipovic writes. Molinaro tried to make the election a referendum on President Joe Biden.
Early numbers suggest a disproportionate turnout from female voters. According to Tom Bonier, the CEO of TargetSmart, a Democratic political data firm, women make up 52% of voters in NY-19, but cast 58% of early and absentee ballots. That higher female turnout suggests that abortion rights very well may have been a huge motivator in this race.
Josh Kraushaar of Axios sees similarly favorable trends in Florida’s turnout on Tuesday:
In Florida’s gubernatorial primary, more Democrats showed up to vote (1,513,180) than in 2018 (1,509,960). Given that 2018 was a historically favorable year for Democrats and 2022 recently looked like a Democratic wipeout, the similar level of Democratic engagement is surprising.
But as in recent elections, Republican turnout is up as well. Even so:
An Axios analysis found that Democratic primary turnout for governors’ races increased between 2018 and 2022 in five of the eight states holding contested primaries after June, in the aftermath of the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision.
Moving up the charts
The economy may still be a dominant issue in 2022, but the NBC News poll from Sunday suggests concern about individual freedoms under attack by Republicans is moving up the charts, as Casey Kasem used to say.
Also:
- A Pew Research Center poll conducted Aug. 1-14 found 56% of voters said the issue of abortion would be “very important” in their midterm decision. That’s up 13 percentage points from Pew’s March survey. The increased interest in abortion was entirely driven by Democratic voters.
- A new NBC News poll found Democrats closing in on Republican enthusiasm for voting in the midterms, driven by partisans citing abortion as a top issue. Only 38% said they supported the Dobbs decision, while 58% opposed it.
- Abortion rated as a top issue in last week’s Fox News polls in Arizona and Wisconsin, moving closer to economic concerns.
- In Arizona, 20% of respondents said inflation was the most important issue in the Senate race, with 16% naming abortion rights. In Wisconsin, 28% named economic concerns as the top issue while abortion came in second at 17%.
National Democrats shy about addressing culture-war issues prefer to run on safe, “kitchen table” themes. (We’ve criticized that plenty here.) Worse, they are traditionally slow to reset their sails to catch changing political winds. Let’s hope they are anxious enough now about their futures (and ours) to see for once which way the wind is blowing.
We cannot let the right wing own the term freedom, especially when their every maneuver is to eliminate and destroy the freedoms of everyone who does not live, love or look like them. — Anat Shenker-Osorio
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