Zelensky helps Russia advance to the rear
Ukraine’s counteroffensive involved planning advice from American and British intelligence officials, the New York Times explains this morning based on multiple interviews, some of them anonymous because of the security of the military planning.
President Volodymyr Zelensky hoped to demonstrate his forces’ ability to push back Russian forces in the south and to reclaim Kherson. But as planning advanced, his generals and American advisers believed the plan too costly. They sought advice from the Americans and British. Any move would have to come before the first snows gave Russia more economic leverage via its energy supplies:
One critical moment this summer came during a war game with U.S. and Ukrainian officials aimed at testing the success of a broad offensive across the south. The exercise, reported earlier by CNN, suggested such an offensive would fail. Armed with the American skepticism, Ukrainian military officials went back to Mr. Zelensky.
“We did do some modeling and some tabletop exercises,” Colin Kahl, the Pentagon’s policy chief, said in a telephone interview. “That set of exercises suggested that certain avenues for a counteroffensive were likely to be more successful than others. We provided that advice, and then the Ukrainians internalized that and made their own decision.”
The stakes were huge. Ukraine needed to demonstrate that this was not going to become just another frozen conflict, and that it could retake territory, for the morale of its people and to shore up support of the West.
Throughout August, at the behest of Ukrainians, U.S. officials stepped up feeds of intelligence about the position of Russian forces, highlighting weaknesses in the Russian lines. The intelligence also indicated that Moscow would struggle to quickly reinforce its troops in northeast Ukraine or move troops from the south, even if it detected Ukrainian preparations for the counteroffensive.
Key to success was U.S. armaments required for the plan:
Ukraine, a former Soviet republic that had used older Soviet weapons, exhausted most of its own ammunition. Learning how to use new weapons systems in the middle of the war is difficult. But so far the risky move has proved successful. More than 800,000 rounds of 155-millimeter artillery shells, for instance, have been sent to Kyiv, helping fuel its current offensives. The United States alone has committed more than $14.5 billion in military aid since the war started in February.
Before the counteroffensive, Ukraine’s armed forces sent the United States a detailed list of weapons they needed to make the plan successful, according to the Ukrainian officer.
Specific weapons, like the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS, are having an outsize effect on the battlefield. The satellite-guided rockets fired by these launch vehicles, called GMLRS, each contain a warhead with 200 pounds of explosives and have been used in recent weeks by Ukrainian forces to destroy more than 400 Russian arms depots, command posts and other targets, American officials said.
Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, assessed that deploying these systems — Ukraininans needed time to train with them — mean Russia is “having great difficulty resupplying their forces and replacing their combat losses.”
Russians have crumbled before advancing Ukrainian forces since Friday.
The Washington Post Editorial Board writes:
What unfolded on the battlefield of Kharkiv oblast in recent days was a remarkable turning point in Ukraine’s desperate battle to resist Russia’s invasion. A more agile force chased a lumbering army into retreat. The war is not over by any means, but the counteroffensive in Kharkiv has exposed anew Russian President Vladimir Putin’s catastrophic miscalculations that Ukraine would collapse, that it would surrender, that it would be steamrolled by Russia’s massive armor. Not so.
Russia apparently figured the next battle would be for Kherson, to the south, and redeployed forces in that direction, only to be surprised when Ukraine struck to the north in Kharkiv. In a matter of days, Ukrainian forces have taken control of almost all of Kharkiv oblast, rolling back months of Russian occupation and advances. The scenes described by Post correspondents include Russian soldiers dropping their rifles and fleeing on stolen bicycles, disguised as locals, abandoning armor and uniforms.
But “one counteroffensive does not make a victory,” both the Post and other observers remind. It’s not anywhere near over. What Vladimir Putin cannot take, he will break, someone yesterday commented.
Still, a rout by any other name….
Ukraine’s “tractor troops” are busily repurposing captured/abandoned Russian armor.
Watching Russians fleeing for their lives (above; and likely losing them) is not funny as suggested by the music attached to the video. But the video suggests panic in retreat. Good.
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