It’s probably not going to go our way — but stranger things have happened!
Greg Mitchell looked at the map and gives the optimistic take:
To start off, the New York Times map this morning has the GOP with an ever-shrinking 211-201 bulge. That means Republicans need seven more wins and the Dems 17 to make the House their home. Sounds daunting, but consider that there are a bunch of slam dunks coming for Democrats in California.
Also, as I note below, the Times is not yet counting two clear D wins in Maine and Alaska only because ranked voting there introduces a bit of uncertainty. And they refuse to call the upset in Colorado by the Democrat, Caraveo, even though her opponent has conceded. So let’s start by saying the Dems need 14 more.
WASHINGTON
In a major surprise, the very appealing blue-collar Marie Perez maintains a 5000 vote edge over her Trumpy election denying opponent Joe Kent. This is now a must-have for the Dems. So there’s 1 of the 14. Perez tweeted last night: “Nearly all of the remaining ballots in #WA03 will be counted tomorrow. Joe Kent and I have both repeatedly pledged to accept the results of this election. That moment is coming soon.”
OREGON
Andrea Salinas leads and is still favored to win. Fellow Dem, Jamie McLeod-Skinner, is now on the ropes but has not conceded. So count just 1.
CALIFORNIA
As I’ve noted, this is slowest-counting state but Dems figure to pick up many not-yet-called races where they are heavily favored: at least 7. We’ve highlighted the tough races of Rep. Katie Porter and Rep. Mike Levin in SoCal but last night her lead was boosted to 4500 and his to 9000 and they appear heading back to D.C. So let’s say 2 more.
Dem candidates to the north, Salas and Smith, continue to trail vs. incumbents Valladao and Garcia. However, in the past two elections, many Dems, including Katie Porter, have come back from similar deficits to win in CA in the final week (meaning next week). Still, Dems will probably need two upsets somewhere else and now have strong shots in districts #13 and in #41 (plus the Valladao and Garcia contests and longshot #3). So this may work out. Let’s count, with some uneasiness, 11 wins in all from CA.
ARIZONA
Two possible upsets suddenly brewing in races in districts #1 (where the D, Jevin Hodge, leads) and #6 (where Kirsten Engel trails). So cross fingers and count 1 more, although 2 are possible and will be needed if California doesn’t quite deliver. And bonus points: Nutjob Kari Lake now trailing by 32,000 in governor’s race.
COLORADO
Amid feverish national attention, the horrid Boebert still maintains 1100 vote edge over Frisch and the race appears headed for a full recount—which may not be done until December 13. It’s a very extensive and careful process. Automatic if vote ends with .5 or less margin, or a candidate can pay for it. Frisch, in fact, is raising funds for this effort which includes possible “curing” of thousands of rejected ballots—voters have a few days yet to correct whatever was wrong originally. Plus military and overseas ballots yet to be counted. Longshot for Frisch but possible. Note: The Colorado secretary of state, Jena Griswold, a Democrat who has tussled with election deniers, was re-elected on Tuesday.
NEW YORK
The race for Conole, the Democrat, looks increasingly out of reach but it’s not off the map yet as he hopes for final votes from Syracuse.
Presto: That’s 14 (plus those gimmes in Maine, Alaska and Colorado) to give Dems the magical 218.
Bottom Line: This is very do-able, with those upsets within reach, though, sadly, one must admit, the Boebert recount might give her the satisfaction of handing the House to the GOP.
That’s for those of you who are frantically refreshing that NY Times several times a day. You never know …..