Here’s a fun JV Last piece about the likelihood of Trump making it to the finish line this time. He quotes a sunny tweet thread from Bill Kristol:
Straightforward from here:
1. Tonight: Walker loses 53%-47%.
2. Tomorrow: McConnell says Trump can’t be the 2024 GOP nominee and he’ll help mobilize donors and voters to stop him.
3. In two weeks: Jan. 6 Committee report. Wave of GOP ‘Never Again Trump’ proclamations.
4. Early 2023: Trump indicted. More Maybe Trumpers move to Never Again Trump.
5. Spring 2023: Trump fading, Biden announces he won’t run in 2024, welcomes younger leaders to compete for Dem nomination.
6. The future: A new generation get to work building a better politics. END
Yeah right. And all this authoritarian, white nationalism and batshit lunacy will be instantly forgotten. Sure it will.
Last begs to differ:
Drink it in, my friends. Because it could happen. As I sit here with the Time Stone examining the 14,605,000 possible futures that are currently open to us, that is absolutely one of them.
And it’s not a long shot, either. Each of the items on Bill’s list is fairly likely. I’d call this something like a 1-in-10 scenario. Happy!
On the other hand . . .
Even if we get this happy scenario, it isn’t going to feel good.
For one thing, none of these Never Again Trumpers will make nice with people like you and me. In fact, they’ll have to kick down at every opportunity to signal that they’re not admitting fault and are still distinct from the RINO-cuck-libtard-grifters.
Always remember Albus Dumbledore: People easily forgive you for being wrong; they never forgive you for being right.
Then there’s the problem of what Never Again Trumpers will pivot to. They are not going to step back and welcome a robust exchange of ideas while encouraging a herd of Republicans to compete for ownership of the party. Because you can’t overthrow an existing boss with a bake-off. You need a champion. Someone to consolidate popular support.
Which is why the aspiring Never Again Trumpers are so into DeSantis. But even here, DeSantis is just a vessel. There is a theory for him, but it does not extend past “because he will win.”
So any successful Never Again Trump movement will need an animating idea. And let me tell you: Compassionate conservatism isn’t walking through that door.
Meaning that a Trump alternative probably has to be, at least as a rhetorical matter, more populist than Trump in order to hold traction with Republican voters. It can not be anti-Trump. It will have to stipulate that Trump is awesome and that he was a tremendously strong leader who, many people are saying, was probably the best president in history.
So that won’t be, you know, awesome.
But here’s why I ultimately think Bill’s optimism is a lower-probability scenario: He’s putting a lot of stock in the power of Republican elites to move voter opinion.
The invisible primary is underway and while Mitch McConnell has the power to sway (some) of the old Republican donor types, (1) his influence on the rank-and-file is limited, and (2) Trump doesn’t need institutional money or infrastructure. He’s the most establishment-proof presidential candidate in modern history.
Trump is going to live or die by the polls. It’s as simple as that. If he stays at or over 40 percent support, then he’s in a commanding position to be the Republican party’s nominee. Period. The end.
And as I’ve said before, near-term events—the debt ceiling fight, an indictment—are set to create a series of litmus tests in which other Republicans will have to choose between siding with Trump or the woke-socialists. That’s good for him.
Trump has a few major advantages.
The first is that in a primary matchup, he is skilled at fighting Republicans. His appeal has always been two-pronged: He triggered the libs and he was eager to throw down against the “bad” RINOs. (Like George W. Bush, John McCain, Mitt Romney, etc.) Arguably, it was this RINO-owning that Republican voters loved most.
DeSantis, on the other hand, has little experience in intra-party fights. He will be a creature of the establishment—the favored candidate of McConnell and the donor class. Which is not a helpful thing in a populist environment. And his go-to move for dealing with Trump has been duck-and-cover. That’s not an operable strategy for a primary fight.
The second advantage Trump has is that over the last few years Republican voters have signaled that in any primary contest, they want the craziest sonofabitch available.
How is DeSantis—or anyone else—going to outbid Trump on crazy?
Think about it: If Trump is so weak because of all of his stunts, then why didn’t DeSantis criticize him for having dinner with Kanye and Nick Fuentes?
The answer is: Because criticizing Trump for dining with Nazi-lovers would put DeSantis on the same side as Democrats and the Liberal Media. It would hurt him more than it would hurt Trump.
Meaning: Trump made a bid so high that DeSantis can’t match it—but also can’t criticize it.
Expect to see lots more of this.
He does see a silver lining: Trump is getting old, noting that he hasn’t held a rally since he announced. In fact, he hasn’t done anything except dine with Nazis and say stupid things on twitter.
I always assumed that Trump would sleep for 4 hours a night and live until he was 90. That he’d be like Castro. But maybe he’s slowing down, losing a step. If that happens—if he forgets how to dominate, or loses the will to log the miles, then maybe some other Republican can take control of the party from him.
That would be one of the only ways he’ll back off. He’s a fighter but combined with all the legal pressures he might just be too tired to do it all over again.
I’ll believe it when I see it.