Abortion, Jan. 6, and your freedom are on the line
Here in our fortress of progressivism, it sometimes seems as if the rest of the country — the left-leaning part, anyway — is oblivious to broader trends at work behind current events. News junkies know, but that’s because we are news junkies. Forward scouts, I tell legislators engaged in trench warfare with authoritarians in the capitol.
Movement conservatism propelled the American right from the 1970s through the Reagan years to George W. Bush’s two terms. We might call what followed movement authoritarianism. Anat Shenker-Osorio, host of the podcast Words to Win By and messaging authority, found signs in a recent survey that the public has caught on (Slate):
In May, the Research Collaborative, a group that I advise, fielded a 1,400-person survey with Lake Research Partners on the Supreme Court. Voters agreed, by double-digit margins, that the Supreme Court “rules for wealthy and powerful few” and that its “decisions take away our freedoms.” Conversely, positive descriptors that the court “has made the right decisions lately,” that it “ensures everyone has equal justice under the law,” and that its “decisions protect our freedoms” were all underwater—most by double digits.
In a split sample experiment, among respondents asked whether a potential president’s Supreme Court nominations factored into their past voting decisions, 79 percent of Democrats and 71 percent of independent voters responded affirmatively. These numbers rose to 90 percent and 76 percent, respectively, for respondents answering about whom they will consider for president in 2024. Similarly, 73 percent of Democrats and 86 percent of independents said they’d factor support for a Supreme Court candidate into how they voted in future congressional elections, up from 39 percent and 51 percent, respectively.
After hearing a list of recent and pending cases, we asked voters forced-choice questions in order to guard against acquiescence bias. Fifty-four percent “worry that the majority on the Supreme Court is taking away our freedoms,” as opposed to 33 percent who “believe that the Supreme Court is doing its job upholding the law and Constitution,” with 14 percent unsure. Moreover, by a margin of 52–29, voters believe that the Supreme Court is “part of a larger authoritarian movement” as opposed to “acting independently,” leaving 19 percent unsure.
While Florida’s authoritarian governor is making that movement headlines week after week, his presidential campaign is fading. There remains the risk that without constant reminders the threat could fade into background noise.
Shenker-Osorio suggests that Democrats need to message more and better on the stakes to people’s freedoms posed by that larger authoritarian movement, and the Supreme Court specifically. The survey found that the court’s underwater approval rating, “while still 2 points underwater—has recovered from its nadir of -8 percentage points in July 2022.”
The Dobbs decision to take away Americans’ freedom to decide and, of course, the constant public discourse that put this issue front and center. As soon as that pressure stops or slows, the court’s standing is given the unearned opportunity to recover.
The dark analogy I picked up somewhere comes from boxing. Once you’ve cut your oponent over the eye, work the eye. Don’t let up.
If there were anything for Democrats to learn from the averted “red wave” last year, it’s that you win debates—and elections—by setting the terms. Had the midterms been the usual referendum on the incumbent president and economic conditions, precedent and pundits would have been right and Democrats would have been doomed. But instead, in the places and races where Democrats prevailed, it was because they brought abortion, Jan. 6, and the need to protect our freedoms top of mind. We must once again apply that same wisdom to how we confront the MAGA justices on the Supreme Court—making clear to voters that our freedoms, our families, and our futures are still very much on the line.
As the teaser for Mark Joseph Stern’s Wednesday post for Slate put it, “The Next GOP Supreme Court Pick Will Make Brett Kavanaugh Look Like a RINO.” Compared to the judges Trump seeded into lower courts during his administration, “Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barrett may appear, at times, like lily-livered centrists,” Stern warns:
What Republicans want now are pugilistic partisans who are outright committed to the authoritarian project. They want fidelity to the party, its leaders, and its policies rather than some hazy devotion to “the law as written,” or even “democracy.”
Get serious about this. Remind friends and neighbors regularly that black robes matter.