Following up on my post below, here’s Obama vet Jim Messina on the same topic. And he makes a point I failed to make: the real problem isn’t Biden’s age, it’s the possibility of losing because of third party gadfly campaigns. It’s happened before …
MESSINA TO DEMS: CHILL OUT — Every day, it seems, there’s new fodder for Democrats looking to freak out about President JOE BIDEN’s reelection prospects: Sagging public views of the economy. Persistent voter concerns about Biden’s age. And erosion in the president’s standing among key minority groups, to name a few.
The man who put the last Democratic president back into the White House — JIM MESSINA, manager of BARACK OBAMA’s 2012 reelect — is back with a reassuring message for his fellow Dems, delivered in a new 22-slide presentation exclusively obtained by Playbook: Relax.
We caught up with Messina last night, and he made it clear he doesn’t see the election through rose-colored glasses. Multiple times he pointed out that (1) no matter who the Republican is, it’ll be a close election and (2) the most likely GOP nominee, DONALD TRUMP, has a strong base and can absolutely win.
But the deck makes a compelling, data-driven case that the sky isn’t falling just yet — with one major caveat, which we’ll get to in a moment.
“I thought it was important to say to my friends and clients and other people, let’s just take a step back and try to be really number-specific and really sort of who has what cards in their poker hand,” Messina told Playbook. “And you would just rather be Joe Biden than Donald Trump.”
“Historically, we’re fucking bedwetters,” he added. “We grew up in the ’80s and ’90s when Republicans won elections all the time. Democrats had their hearts deeply broken when HILLARY [CLINTON] lost and people didn’t see that coming. And so, you know, we continually believe every bad thing people say.”
THE KEY POINTS from the deck, titled “Off to the Races,” and our chat with Messina:
— The economic fundamentals are strong. The “misery index,” a bellwether economic measure that combines unemployment and inflation, is now lower than it was ahead of RONALD REAGAN, BILL CLINTON and Obama’s successful reelections. Messina also gives credit to Biden and team for consistently selling “Bidenomics” to voters, even as voter views remain stuck — likening it to the challenges Obama faced in 2012 as the economy slowly emerged from the Great Recession: “People thought we were crazy to go as early as we did with economic messaging.”
— Abortion is a major X factor. Democrats have long played defense on so-called culture war issues, but after the Dobbs ruling, Messina said, Democrats have an issue to rally voters around unlike anything he’s seen in modern politics. And its staying power, he added, is only buoyed by a Republican primary where a national abortion ban is continuingly put forward as a litmus test.
— The election is a choice, not a wish. Pressed on the dismal voter views of Biden, Messina said he is confident the qualms will wash away as the horse race takes shape. “It’s a choice between two parties, two ideologies, between two people,” he said. “And that choice matters. … People didn’t see the Democratic turnout in 2022 coming.” And while Messina assumes it’s a Biden-Trump rematch, he argues that even another GOP nominee can be painted as extreme and Trump-y.
AND THE BIG CAVEAT is whether that choice gets muddied: Messina is joining many other Democrats and some anti-Trump Republicans in fingering third-party candidates as a underappreciated threat to Biden.
“I don’t care what they do. I don’t care how much money they spend. I don’t care who their nominee is. They’re going to get zero electoral votes. The question is who do they take the votes from?” Messina said. “You just can’t split away votes if you want to beat Donald Trump. And I just cannot overstate how crucial it is to make sure that we don’t create a vehicle that takes enough votes up to elect Donald Trump.”