In his newsletter today, Dan Pfeiffer looks at the bizarre phenomenon of a presidential candidate getting much more popular after he’s indicted four times:
A number of theories surfaced to explain this unexpected and deeply concerning outcome — Republicans are a cult, Ron DeSantis sucks, etc. Elections are dynamic enterprises. There are a lot of interrelated factors that lead to an outcome. It’s not as simple as “Ron DeSantis sucks,” even if he is one of the most maladroit candidates in modern political history. Here are X findings from recent polls that help explain why Republican voters are flocking to Trump as his likelihood of spending the rest of his life in prison skyrockets:
1. Republicans Trust Trump Over Everyone Else
Donald Trump is one of the most prolific and obvious liars the world has ever known. Here’s how the Washington Post fact checker summarized Trump’s presidency:
Over time, Trump unleashed his falsehoods with increasing frequency and ferocity, often by the scores in a single campaign speech or tweetstorm. What began as a relative trickle of misrepresentations, including 10 on his first day and five on the second, built into a torrent through Trump’s final days as he frenetically spread wild theories that the coronavirus pandemic would disappear “like a miracle” and that the presidential election had been stolen — the claim that inspired Trump supporters to attack Congress on Jan. 6 and prompted his second impeachment. The final tally of Trump’s presidency: 30,573 false or misleading claims — with nearly half coming in his final year.
Trump’s dishonesty is so blatant that most Americans find it disqualifying, but Trump’s voters see only qualifications. They do not believe he is dishonest. They think he is the only honest man in public life. A CBS News/YouGov poll asked Trump voters who they feel tells them the truth. Trump was seen as more truthful than friends and family or religious leaders.
This finding helps explain why all of this damaging information about Trump from the various indictments, not to mention the January 6th committee or the media, keeps voters in Trump’s corner — they trust Trump more. If Jack Smith or Fani Willis says Trump did all these bad things and Trump says (or Truths) “I’m innocent” it’s clear who they will believe. Trump isn’t their most trusted source of information, he is their only trusted source of information.
2. A Hermetically Sealed Information Bubble
In addition to not believing the negative information about Trump, many Republican voters simply aren’t getting the other side. If they do encounter news about Trump’s crimes, it’s refracted through the lens of the Right Wing media.
In August, a New York Times/Sienna poll asked Republican voters which news source they trusted most:
Fox News 26%
Social Media 12%
National Broadcast TV 11%
Conservative News Sites 6%
Local Broadcast News 6%
Newsmax 5%
The Republican base lives in a hermetically sealed information bubble that protects Trump from the damaging revelations that have undone so many other political figures.
3. Republicans Think Trump Can’t Lose
If you have spent any time recently on Twitter or in group chats with politically active Democrats, you’ve witnessed their mild panic about the 2024 election. Poll after poll show an alarmingly close race, which has sent Democratic blood pressures skyrocketing. Even though these very same polls have Trump tied with Biden, Republican voters are not concerned. According to a CBS News/YouGov poll, 61% of Republican voters think Trump would DEFINITELY beat Biden.
The level of confidence is delusional given two facts. One, Trump is in grave legal jeopardy; and two, Biden beat Trump less than three years ago. This delusion is fueled by the Right Wing media’s caricature of Biden’s age and competence, but also explains why Republicans are sticking with Trump — they believe to their core that he is the best chance to beat Biden.
DeSantis’s pitch that he is Trump without the baggage falls flat because GOP voters simply don’t believe Trump has baggage.
They also don’t believe Trump really lost in 2020. They think he’s a proven winner against Biden.
4. GOP Voters are Nonplussed by the Charges
There is a possibility that Donald Trump will be sentenced to prison before the 2024 election. Presidential primary voters support candidates for two reasons — they think a candidate can win and if that candidate wins, they will be a president who effectively implements their vision. On paper, at least, it would seem that campaigning in prison would pose a real obstacle to one’s success and a functional presidency. Even if you believed to your core that Trump was innocent — as most Republican voters do — the circumstances of his indictments should give you some pause about his ability to win and govern.
For whatever reason, Republicans are not in the least worried about the logistical or political impact of the indictments. A recent CNN poll found that majorities of Republicans are not at all concerned about the political or substantive impact of the charges.
Nearly seven in ten Republicans are unconcerned about 91 felony counts that could lead to decades of prison time. They don’t believe it will impact Trump’s efficacy as president. This is the whole story of the GOP primary contest that is barely a contest.
That’s crazy. But they think he has magical powers apparently and will be able to function as president even though he’s a convicted felon looking at jail time. The only explanation for this is that these people are cult followers or they are so cynical they just don’t care and are willing to say anything because they want to win. It’s ridiculous.
Keep in mind that this is probably the biggest cult in world history. Over 50 million people are participating to one degree or another.