Skip to content

What horse-race polls don’t show

Published by Tom Sullivan on October 19, 2023

Republicans are underwater

A lot of polling these days is crap. Presidential horse-race polls, especially. That doesn’t keep them from drawing eyeballs like Bat Boy pics at the checkout counter. Morning Consult has another this morning sure to provoke anxiety.

But so does Navigator. While presidential polling a full year out from November 2024 suggests another close election, Navigator reports the Republican brand is suffering:

Key Takeaways:

  • Overwhelming majorities disapprove of the job Republicans in Congress are
    doing, while nearly three in four report hearing negative information about them.
    Turmoil around electing a Speaker is dominating what Americans are hearing.
  • Key House Republicans all have net negative favorability ratings, while a majority
    of Americans still have no opinion of Jim Jordan.
  • More Americans would now blame Republicans if a shutdown were to occur, and
    three in five say a government shutdown would have a negative impact on them
    personally, including majorities across party lines.
  • Awareness of a potential government shutdown this fall has eroded since a
    shutdown was avoided on September 30th
    .

From the newsletter:

Seven in ten Americans disapprove of the way Republicans in Congress are handling their jobs, as favorability for prominent Republicans is underwater. For the first time, Republicans hold a net negative view of Republicans in Congress (net -4; 45 percent approve – 49 percent disapprove; a net negative 23-point shift since early September). Americans overall also disapprove of Republicans in Congress by a 43-point margin (26 percent approve – 69 percent disapprove), including over four in five Democrats (86 percent disapprove) and nearly three in four independents (72 percent disapprove). Disapproval is equally high among moderate Americans (net -47; 22 percent approve – 69 percent disapprove) and among Republicans who describe themselves as not very conservative, Republicans in Congress have double-digit net negative ratings (net -17; 38 percent approve – 55 percent disapprove).

Disapproval of Republicans today does not equal depressed turnout for them next year, nor a boost in turnout for Democrats. Many among the growing ranks of unaffiliated voters could stay home, making the general election look more like the primary.

Even Republicans can see it (New York Times):

The latest round of House Republican infighting has badly damaged the G.O.P. brand. It has left the party leaderless and one chamber of Congress paralyzed for more than two weeks. The chaos is raising the chances that Democrats could win back the majority next year, and it has given them ample ammunition for their campaign narrative, which casts Republicans as right-wing extremists who are unfit to govern.

“It hurts the country; it hurts the Congress; it’s hurting our party,” said Representative Don Bacon of Nebraska, one of 18 Republicans who represent districts won by Mr. Biden in 2020. “It’s putting us in a bad hole for next November.”

The bad taste in voters’ mouths, if it persists, will impact the presidential race as well, and it probably won’t show in the head-to-head presidential polls. Factor that into the “close” polls you see.

Published inUncategorized