“I would much rather be us than them”
One red state I track from cycle to cycle showed half its Democratic county committees leaderless or unorganized this time in 2022. When I checked the state party’s website again this week, Every Single One had a county chair listed with email contacts (all but one). I was elated. It won’t change anything electoral-count-wise in 2024, but it’s remarkable organizing progress in two years. It could mean a less-red state legislature in the near future, and a more hospitable environment for residents, especially women. It’s something to be thankful for today.
Something else (Daily Kos):
In a historic victory, Democrats have gained their first majority on the Board of Commissioners in Dauphin County since at least 1919—and possibly ever—after Republican Chad Saylor conceded to Democrat Justin Douglas following this month’s elections. Notably, the county includes the state capital of Harrisburg and nearby suburbs,
Combined with Democratic wins around the state, every county that Joe Biden won in 2020 will now have a Democratic-led county government, covering 56% of the state’s population. As Bolts Magazine’s Daniel Nichanian has detailed, Pennsylvania’s county governments play an important role in administering elections, determining access to voting, and certifying election results in this major swing state.
Democrats are winning almost everywhere lately. Simon Rosenberg (Hopium Chronicles) is among those who have taken notice (Salon):
The Democrats have been winning in off-year elections. We won in the red wave midterm that we weren’t supposed to win last year. We won in the general election. This idea that as the electorate gets bigger, it gets more Republican is false. The Democrats have won more votes in the last seven out of eight elections than the Republicans. No political party has done that in American history. In the last four elections, we’ve beaten the Republicans on average by 51 to 46 by five points.
In addition, there is a big anti-MAGA majority in this country and it continues to show up to give the Democrats big electoral victories when nobody expects it. I also have no idea how Donald Trump is going to pick up a single new vote beyond the voters who voted for him in 2020. And it’s far more likely that he gets 45% of the vote than he does 49% of the vote. Trump is not a strong candidate. He’s only getting 60% of the Republican field right now. That means 40% of Republicans are not supporting him right now. Trump needs 95% of Republicans to even have a remote chance of winning. He is very far away from that. Trump is actually showing a lot of structural weakness, not strength.
I know the polls have shown what they’ve shown. First of all, the election is a year away. Not to be overlooked, there are polls showing Biden up by between two and five points nationally over Trump. There is contradictory data out there — which is what happened with the non-existent red wave in 2022. For Trump to be in the high 40s, or even ahead of Biden, it would put Trump in a place that no Republican candidate has been in 20 years. I just don’t buy that given the fact that when actual Democrats and Republicans go vote, we do well, and they don’t. I’m not going to tell you we’re going to win. I can’t predict that. But I would much rather be us than them given everything I know about politics.
The Republicans are in far greater trouble than is generally understood. Consider these facts: Trump has been convicted of sexual assault, he was involved in one of the largest financial scandals in American history, he will have been probably responsible for the greatest security breach in the history of potentially the United States and even the West, he will have overseen a party-wide conspiracy to overturn an election and to end American democracy, and he is more responsible for ending Roe v. Wade and taking away women’s reproductive rights than any other single person in the country. When you add all that up, I just don’t know how Donald Trump, the worst candidate in American history, wins.
Rosenberg will host NC Democratic Party Chair Anderson Clayton (photo at top) in a Zoom event next Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET. A few of us geezers helped this Gen Z superstar take the reins here and begin prepping our state to go blue in 2024. Clayton is another reason for me to be grateful this Thanksgiving. Us Boomers? The wisest of us know when to step aside. We’re done. We’re advisors.
There is a lot of grassroots energy out there that’s not visible to Average Joe. Some of the organizing occurs on Zoom and in the streets rather than in the press. (Not seeing it on your vidscreen doesn’t mean it’s not happening.) But the level of commitment and activity is as high as I’ve seen since the first Obama campaign, even if the hair at most of those meetings is still too gray for my liking.
(h/t BF)