They counted on MAGA to be stupid. Always a smart bet.
This is an interesting tick-tock of the Border/Foreign Aid bill from the NY Times. (Gift link, here) It starts off recounting how the Republicans thought they could back the Dems into a corner by demanding a border component to Ukraine funding which they knew was vitally important to the White House. The Democrats decided that they would call their bluff and negotiate a border bill and one that would be seen as credible by serious border hawks. But they were not surprised when the Republicans balk:
The possibility that Republicans would bolt from their own deal had occurred to Mr. Schumer from the start, given his previous experience.
“We knew it way back then,” he said.
But Mr. Schumer saw a political upside should that occur: Democrats would be able to say they tried and point to the Republican opposition for failing to halt a surge of migrants illegally crossing the U.S. border with Mexico.
“It’s a win if Republicans abandon us at the last minute,” Mr. Schumer said in an interview, explaining his calculation, “because if Democrats could put together a tough, bipartisan bill on border, it would not take border away as an issue for the Republicans, but it would give us a 50-50 chance to combat it.”
I’m actually glad to hear that. I would have been very concerned if they weren’t prepared for this since the Republicans have been playing this game for quite some time. And I think that Joe Biden certainly knew it since he’s personally been involved in some of the most egregious examples of GOP bad faith saving the Democrats from a deal their voters hate.
A promising moment came when Congress returned last month, Mr. Schumer said. Senator James Lankford of Oklahoma, the Republicans’ lead negotiator in the talks, began disclosing details of the potential agreement to top colleagues, who seemed to be impressed by how far Democrats had moved on the issue. Approval seemed possible, though in the weeks that followed, Mr. Trump began savaging the emerging deal pre-emptively and urging Republicans to reject it.
The deal quickly collapsed on Feb. 4, within hours of the details being made public. Far-right conservatives in the Senate rebelled, scoffing at the notion that Democrats had made real concessions and saying that Mr. Biden would not enforce the new law regardless.
Seeing the handwriting on the wall, Senate Republicans, including Mr. McConnell, ran from the agreement. Only four Republicans ended up voting to bring it to the floor. Republicans still intend to hammer Democrats on border security issues and blame the lack of tough border policy in the Ukraine aid bill as a rationale for not taking up the legislation in the House.
“The Senate’s foreign aid bill is silent on the most pressing issue facing our country,” Speaker Mike Johnson said in attacking the legislation and suggesting it was dead in the House.
Still, members of both parties credited Mr. Schumer for deftly playing a hand that insulated Democrats from a backlash to the collapse, provided a political defense on border policy and still allowed him and a bipartisan coalition of senators to salvage the Ukraine aid.
“He saw an opening, and he seized it,” said Senator Richard Blumenthal, Democrat of Connecticut. “His approach has kept this effort bipartisan despite the rancor and resistance.”
It also allowed Democrats to wring maximum political benefit from the immigration debate without having to follow through with any policy concessions. They were able to signal to voters that they embraced strong border provisions — and blame Republicans for killing them — without having to put the restrictions into force, which would surely have alienated their progressive base.
Tom Suozzi ran on immigration by pointing out that Trump ordered them not to take the deal and suggesting that he would have voted for it with a path to citizenship for DREAMers and others already in the country. It seems to have worked for him.
It was risky for the Dems to do this because you never know for sure that the Republicans will refuse to take yes for an answer. But at this point it’s a pretty good bet.