Biden is fine there and it’s nice to see him mingling with an average family and chatting about their lives. But what’s most interesting is the family itself — a dad raising two boys on his own, living a middle class life trying to build a future for his kids. He’s a school principal and the boys are average all-American teenagers. It just seems so … normal. I guess I need to be reminded of that sometimes.
Anyway, here’s today’s Hopium from Scott Rosenberg. (There’s a lot more and you can subscribe here.)
Trump is not winning the election, or favored, and analysts simply must stop claiming he is – They way our post-Dobbs electoral success and increasingly powerful grassroots is being overly discounted and Trump’s strength as a candidate is being exaggerated has begun to feel a lot like the false red wave media narrative of 2022.
Take a look at these four independent polls of registered voters (not adults) released in the past week. What they find is a close, competitive election:
Emerson 44-45
Economist/YouGov 44-44
Morning Consult 42-43
Lord Ashcroft 40-40
And for some reason, that the last NYT poll released in December has Biden actually ahead of Trump, 47-45 (+2), seems to be continually ignored by everyone.
What all of this tells you is that the race is close and competitive, and we have to do to out and win this thing the way we’ve been winning elections all across the country. Suozzi’s polls had the race very close and he won by 8, in part supercharged by our enormously powerful grassroots. Here’s something I got from the campaign:
In the space of five weeks people knocked on over 150,000 doors, made over 2 million phone calls, and wrote hundreds of thousands of postcards. Our campaign estimates that every Democrat household in the NY-03 received, on average, five handwritten postcards.
We have work to do, no doubt, but let’s look at this chart from Morning Consult, below. Do the math on what happens when the Biden campaign really engages, and gets Democrats to where Trump’s vote is with Republicans – we go ahead by a few points. That is the likely scenario in the next few months. They have had a primary and we haven’t. Their coalition is more engaged, ours is still wandering. This is normal, folks. The work we have to do is doable work. I have no idea how you make Trump look like a serious candidate for President again.
No poll, no election, no commentator can predict the future. But you can make reasonable assumptions with the data that’s in front of you. That’s what I try to do here every day. And to me the likely scenario – not the only scenario – is Biden-Harris keeping our winning streak alive this November and MAGA loses yet another election.
