Not bloody likely
This piece by Punchbowl is yet another “red tsunami” horse race piece designed to give Democrats heartburn. (Fun for MAGA and Villagers alike!)
We’ve talked a lot during the past two years about the group of a dozen-plus vulnerable House Republicans who hold districts President Joe Biden won in 2020. But what if these Republicans aren’t as endangered as we thought?
We’re in southern California all week talking to candidates running in competitive races that may decide control of the House. In conversation after conversation, we found rank-and-file Republicans increasingly ready to embrace former President Donald Trump in toss-up seats. Trump lost California by roughly 30 points in both 2016 and 2020, so this is a significant development.
There are five Republican incumbents in the Golden State who represent seats that Biden won. Given the razor-thin GOP House majority, if Democrats flip all these seats they could win the chamber back this fall. But it’s not so simple.
Much has changed since 2020 when Biden beat Trump in a popular vote and Electoral College landslide. Biden is currently trailing Trump in the polls nationally. He’s stuck with a 38% average approval rating. So in the mind of these at-risk Republicans, tying yourself to a well-known challenger when Biden is broadly unpopular isn’t the worst idea, despite Trump’s obvious downsides.
“I think the base is more excited than ever. The more they try to lock up President Trump, I think it does the opposite of whatever they’re trying to do,” Rep. Young Kim (R-Calif.) told us. “So there is more enthusiasm, there is more energy that’s going to help the base to come out.” Biden won Kim’s district in 2020 by just under two points. She faces Democrat Joe Kerr in November.
Farther south, Republican Matt Gunderson is challenging Rep. Mike Levin (D-Calif.) in a San Diego-area seat Biden won by double digits four years ago. But Gunderson insisted the math is different this time around. “Right now in our polling, Biden’s lead has diminished to 5.7%. So it’s almost half his tally last cycle,” Gunderson said. “That Trump drag impact’s not going to be the same as it has been in the past.”
Democrats are also targeting longtime incumbent GOP Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.) to the east of Los Angeles. Trump won by the district around a point in 2020, and Calvert is eagerly endorsing the former president in 2024.“My opponent’s going to be supporting Joe Biden, and I’m comfortable with that. He can support Joe Biden. I’ll support Trump, and I think the district will vote accordingly,” Calvert said. Calvert narrowly defeated Democrat Will Rollins in 2022, and two are locked in a highly-anticipated rematch this cycle.
The acknowledgment that Biden’s political standing is eroding in swing seats isn’t a radical assessment. Even in deep-blue California, there are still pockets of opposition to Biden as residents unhappy with rising crime, illegal border crossings and sky-high costs make their displeasure known.For example, Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom recently faced a recall effort and there’s fury at progressive district attorneys like George Gascón in Los Angeles County.
FFS. A bunch of republicans running for re-election are saying they have a good chance to win? Stop the presses!
Yes, there are red districts in California. They may win re-election and they may not. But there is nothing in this article to suggest that this is a given or that anything in California’s current political environment indicates this. Certainly, the fact that Gavin Newsom was subject to a recall three years ago, in which he prevailed by well over 60 % and then went on to win re-election the next year with similar numbers, says nothing!
This is exactly the kind of reporting you get when the “Republicans are winning!” narrative takes hold. And yet the national polls actually have the presidency essentially tied and the swing state polls are all over the place. Sheesh.