Hey kids…
By the way, Nate Cohn, DC’s polling god, put this little tid bit out this morning:
While Mr. Trump has survived many controversies, he has also suffered a political penalty for his conduct. He did lose re-election, after all. And this cycle, there is one reason to wonder whether Mr. Trump might now be more vulnerable: He depends on the support of many young and nonwhite voters who haven’t voted for him in the past, and who might not prove as loyal as those who have stood by his side from the start.
Huh. You’d think this odd fact would be more salient in the coverage but I see little evidence that many in the mainstream media have noticed. But maybe that’s a good thing.
Anyway:
Mr. Trump doesn’t just count on the support of Republicans and MAGA loyalists in the conservative information ecosystem. His strength in the polls increasingly depends on surprising strength among voters from traditionally Democratic constituencies, like young, nonwhite and irregular voters. Many of these voters are registered as Democrats, back Democrats in races for U.S. Senate and may have even backed Mr. Biden in the last election. This is not Mr. Trump’s core of proven support. This is a group of voters whose loyalty hasn’t yet been established — let alone tested.
The Times/Siena and Marquette Law polls both suggest that these young and nonwhite voters might be especially prone to revert to their traditional partisan leanings in the event of a conviction, with Mr. Biden getting back to a far more typical lead among young and nonwhite voters. In fact, almost all of the unusual demographic patterns among young, nonwhite and irregular voters disappear when voters are asked how they would vote if Mr. Trump were convicted.
In the Times/Siena poll, 21 percent of Mr. Trump’s young supporters said they’d back Mr. Biden if there were a conviction. In comparison, only 2 percent of 65-and-older Trump supporters said the same. Similarly, 27 percent of Black voters who backed Mr. Trump flipped to Mr. Biden, compared with just 5 percent of white respondents.
Right.
Four years ago today, Trump was trying to get the national guard to shoot protesters who were out in the streets over the killing of George Floyd. Maybe it would be worth reminding some of these soft Trump supporters about that. You can be sure that next time he’ll actually do it.