Contrary to what we’re reading from the Kewl Kidz at Axios and Politico, CNN has a piece today that says the Democrats are actually coming to a consensus that Kamala Harris has to be the nominee if Biden steps aside. (Duh…) The way they describe the dynamic rings true to me:
No one quite knows what the process of picking a new nominee would be if Joe Biden did step aside – but many Democrats say that any process is likelier than ever to quickly end with Vice President Kamala Harris as the nominee. The informal conversations about how a fight to replace Biden at the top of the ticket would play out have been raging for weeks behind the scenes. But uncertainty about the process has been so unclear it’s given multiple Democrats – even those with serious concerns about Biden – pause about coming out against the president’s candidacy, given that what comes next could be even messier.
“F**k it, I’m coconut pilled. I just want this to stop,” said one well-known Democratic operative, referring to the online meme that has taken off from an old video of the vice president telling a story of her mother saying, “You think you just fell out of a coconut tree?”
It’s not that everyone has suddenly coalesced – but exhaustion is gelling into consensus.Internal polls that show Harris would at least be more helpful to boosting Democratic enthusiasm and aiding down ballot races are getting passed around. Arguments that she would be fastest to put together a campaign are landing harder. Daydreams of her making a more active and vigorous case against Donald Trump are taking root.
Many are deliberately holding off talking about hypotheticals as Biden aides say he plans to get back on the campaign trail next week once he recovers from Covid-19. But if that suddenly changes, two dozen leading Democratic politicians and operatives told CNN, they can’t realistically see this ending any other way.
Some are pushing for a fast and closed process, where delegates would bless the swap as part of their planned pre-convention virtual nomination plan. Some reject the idea of a coronation, either because they prefer others or don’t like the way that would look. But – though there are musings about quickly creating a series of blitz primaries or town halls – no one can agree how that would work with just over 100 days until the election and much less than that before Democrats are scheduled to gather in Chicago. Still, it’s an idea some Harris backers support, doubting that anyone serious would challenge her, as much chest puffing as there is behind the scenes.
Multiple Democratic members of Congress who have called for Biden to go declined on Friday when asked by CNN if they were ready to say they want Harris to be the nominee.If nothing else, people connected with several of the other possible most serious options and others acknowledge, they would likely feel boxed in by both party loyalty and their own future ambitions. Pressure will be high to unify after the last month of infighting, and anyone who takes her on would be risking torpedoing their reputation with the base in a potential 2028 open primary if she were seen as weakened by that and went on to lose.
Some Democrats believe, even with the threat of early ballot deadlines, it could be settled on the floor of the convention in late August. If this stretches out that long, though, multiple Democrats predicted that the hunger for resolution will only intensify.That’s become ever more likely, those politicians and operatives say, both by how much closer they are to Election Day and by how impressed they’ve been by how the vice president has handled these weeks of Democratic crisis. They argue the vice president has not been caught scheming, even in private conversations, and instead has showcased being fiery and loyal to Biden at a series of campaign stops, which will continue on Saturday at a fundraiser she’s headlining in Provincetown, Massachusetts.
“I do believe it has to be the vice president. She’s campaigning vigorously under the mantle and she’s the natural successor. It’s going to be important in the scenario that the president isn’t the nominee that we rally around her immediately,” said one Democratic House member who asked not to be named so as not to be seen undercutting the president.
You’ve got Never Trumpers like Mike Murphy out there pushing for an open convention probably because, as a Republican, he’s just used to thinking about a Black woman nominee as the kiss of death. But this isn’t 2016 — abortion is on the ballot and women are motivated. Also I would have thought that people who worked for John McCain and Mitt Romney would have gotten over that idea as it pertains to Black candidates.
Anyway, the CNN piece goes on to argue that Biden endorsing is hugely important, which it is, and I expect he would do. It points out that there have been no whispers of her plotting a takeover, not even one and that’s pretty impressive. No one has defended him more vociferously and I think that matters to him.
Read the whole thing, there’s a lot more. I have a suspicion that may be the real state of play. People are exhausted with this and most have to be recognizing that it’s already gone on too long and extending it with some kind of reality show circus would only hurt the ball team. God, I hope so, anyway.